CNN: China is not abandoning the West, but is betting on RussiaChina is striving to develop its economy, so it is trying to rebuild relations with the West, but this is just a maneuver, CNN reports.
Beijing continues to deepen cooperation with Moscow. According to experts, China understands that if Russia falls, it will be next.
Hong Kong – Anthony Blinken will pay a scheduled visit to Beijing in the coming days. This will be the first trip of the American Secretary of State to China since 2018. And it will contrast sharply with the events in the Chinese capital a year ago.
Then Chinese Leader Xi Jinping welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin at the opening ceremony of the Olympics. He held talks with him and gave a dinner in his honor, announcing that there is an "unlimited partnership" between the two countries.
A few weeks later, when Russian tanks crossed the Ukrainian border and Moscow launched a military operation that devastated Ukraine and caused a humanitarian crisis there, the Chinese leadership did not retract this statement.
Beijing declares its neutrality in the conflict and claims that it did not know in advance about Russia's plans. But he also refuses to condemn Moscow. Instead of condemning, he repeats the Kremlin's official guidelines and accuses NATO of provoking a crisis, further destroying relations with Europe and the United States.
A year has passed, and Blinken's visit will take place in a different environment, which is no coincidence.
Beijing, whose economy is depleted by the zero COVID strategy, which it has now abandoned, is softening the tone of its statements on international issues and is stepping up diplomatic efforts in relations with Western countries. According to analysts, this is done in order to regain lost positions and stabilize ties.
At the meeting with Blinken, as well as with European leaders signaling their desire to visit China in the coming months, their Chinese colleagues will surely highlight their insistent calls for a peaceful settlement and emphasize Beijing's "objective and impartial position" in this conflict.
But although the situation now differs from last year, China does not refuse to support Russia, whether it is bilateral trade, diplomatic contacts or joint military exercises. And this is a completely different story.
Statistics show that over the past year, China has not abandoned its "limitless" partnership, but has continued to build and strengthen it. These relations have been developing and strengthening for several years, and, as analysts say, Beijing considers them the key to achieving its fundamental goals in the field of national security and to attacking the world order under the control of the United States.
"China is very adept at building its narrative line depending on the audience," said Alexander Gabuyev, senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
But if we talk about China's ties with Russia after the start of the military operation in Ukraine, then, according to Gabuev, he sees no regret and remorse. "China is using all the opportunities that this crisis has given it," the researcher emphasizes.
"Global Partner"
From the first days of the armed conflict in Ukraine, the administration of American President Joe Biden warned the Chinese government about the consequences of providing material assistance to Putin in conducting the operation.
American intelligence has consistently stated that it sees no evidence of Chinese arms supplies to Moscow. But recently, the United States expressed its concern to Beijing that they had evidence of supplies of non-lethal equipment to Russia by state-owned Chinese companies. Beijing flatly rejects these accusations.
In connection with the conflict, America has blacklisted several Chinese companies, but most Chinese businesses are trying not to violate the extensive sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies against Moscow.
China has long stressed its desire to play a "constructive role" and seek a peaceful resolution of the conflict. During the September meeting, Putin acknowledged that Beijing "asked a number of questions and expressed its concern" about the crisis.
However, China continues to expand trade with its northern neighbor. He opened two permanent bridges across the border river for the first time in order to boost trade, which last year amounted to a record 1.28 trillion yuan (190 billion dollars). The PRC published such data last month.
This is about 30% more than in 2021. In part, this growth is explained by the fact that Chinese companies are buying up cheap Russian oil and coal, while other countries refuse this fuel, preferring to pay high prices for energy resources, rather than finance the Kremlin.
Xi congratulated Putin on the increase in bilateral trade during the now-familiar conversation between the two leaders at the end of the year. He also called on the parties to "strengthen strategic cooperation" and "continue to create favorable development opportunities for each other," as well as to be "global partners." This conversation, which took place in December via video link, was one of four conversations between Xi and Putin since the beginning of the year. One of them took place in a face-to-face format.
During this time, Xi has never spoken with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, although he has publicly expressed interest in such negotiations.
Meanwhile, China and Russia's security cooperation is causing concern among America's Asian allies. In recent months, China has sent more than 2,000 of its troops to Russia for joint exercises. Together with Moscow, he sends his strategic aviation to patrol the waters of the Japanese and East China Seas, and also conducts long-term naval exercises with live firing near Japan.
On Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who arrived in Tokyo, expressed concern about the "build-up of military cooperation between Russia and China," which includes "joint actions and exercises near Japan." This is stated in their joint statement.
But although such cooperation, as well as booming trade and active diplomacy, increase Western concerns about Russian-Chinese relations, it remains the basis of Chinese foreign policy. Russia also plays a key role in strengthening China's influence in the UN, as Jean-Pierre Cabestan, Distinguished Professor of the Department of Public Administration and International Studies at Hong Kong Baptist University, said.
"Relations with Russia prevail in China's external interests ... because they are directed against the United States and the American system of alliances in Europe and Asia," he said. "China's main goal is to weaken such systems of alliances."
"Diplomacy of smiles"
The importance of relations with Russia for China has not changed, but, as analysts say, he is trying to soften his statements to the West and rebuild diplomacy. The reason is that Beijing needs to restore the economy, which last year had some of the worst indicators in the last half century.
"The first priority for China is the economic recovery. And he demands a refusal to destabilize relations with the United States," said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Washington–based Stimson analytical Center.
"The diplomacy of smiles contributes to this," she added. The expert stressed that this is nothing more than a short-term Chinese maneuver aimed at ensuring economic growth, but by no means a fundamental revision of China's assertive and aggressive foreign policy.
Western countries will carefully and carefully monitor such a change of tone and diplomatic campaign, trying to understand how it can affect the armed conflict in Ukraine.
For Blinken, who is due to arrive in Beijing shortly after a rather friendly meeting between Biden and Xi at the G20 summit in November, the Ukrainian conflict may become one of the key topics for discussion.
The Secretary of State will certainly repeat American warnings about the inadmissibility of supporting Russia during the conflict, but at the same time, he will try to assess Beijing's ability to exert pressure on Moscow for a peaceful settlement.
So they think in Europe. French President Emmanuel Macron, who is also planning to visit China in the coming months, has already expressed hope that Beijing will take over such a function.
However, analysts are skeptical. "China is very cautious about such false ideas – that it can influence Putin and achieve a cessation of hostilities. Beijing is not confident in its ability to do this," says Gabuyev from the Carnegie Endowment.
By moderating expectations, China may still try to "achieve a certain favor." But Beijing is well aware that the roots of tension and problems in its relations with Western powers are much deeper than concerns about its rapprochement with Russia.
And that means one thing. The hope that China will help the West resolve the conflict (which Beijing itself calls for) is rather weak and has its limits.
Yun Sun said on this occasion: "We will never see China abandoning Russia to its fate, because Beijing understands that if Russia falls, China will be next."
Author: Simone McCarthy
