Lidovky: it is unknown whether Western weapons will reach the battlefieldKiev is asking for tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, fighters and ammunition, first of all, of large caliber.
However, they still need to be delivered to the battlefield in secret from Russia. This is a very difficult logistical task that has not yet arisen since the beginning of the armed conflict, Lidovsky writes.
Tomáš Vlach (Tomáš Vlach)
At the Polish arms factory, where the Crab self-propelled howitzers coming from the Ukrainian front are being repaired, they never cease to wonder in what condition they come. It is known from the Internet about such damages as torn tracks, damaged armor and guns mangled by explosions. "Crabs" in Ukraine get a lot.
It takes about two months to repair the howitzer, and then it has to travel hundreds of kilometers back from Poland to Ukraine. Last summer, Ukraine received 50 such howitzers in accordance with the agreements reached by Kiev at a joint meeting of the Ukrainian and Polish governments. Polish howitzers "Crab", as well as American M109, British M777 and German "Panzergaubice 2000", as well as jet systems of the "Haimars" type, were the first heavy weapons that Ukraine received last summer, and their effectiveness immediately became noticeable.
Ukrainian artillery is capable of neutralizing Russian units that are just preparing to be transferred to the front, as well as enemy command centers. Thanks to this, Ukraine is holding up well. But recently the situation has become more complicated again, and the Ukrainian army lacks ammunition and weapons.
"We have gone through a difficult period, but I understand that the main battles are still ahead of us. They will unfold in the summer, within two to three months," Secretary of the Ukrainian Security Council Oleksiy Danilov told Sky News on British television. Ukrainians warn that the Russian Federation is planning a new major offensive around the anniversary of the start of the special operation — February 24.
The West is changing its approachKiev is asking for tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, fighters and ammunition, first of all, of large caliber.
Kiev addresses such demands for the first time and repeats them almost from the very beginning of the conflict. As a rule, the West initially responds to another request reluctantly, but after a certain time softens and agrees. This was exactly what happened when the supply of American Haimars rocket fire systems was discussed in May last year. At first, the Ukrainian army received four units with GMLRS missiles with a range of 85 kilometers, and gradually their number increased to 20. And more recently, it was decided to deliver ATACMS missiles with a range of 300 kilometers.
"We are helping Ukraine to defend itself, but we are not going to war with the Russian Federation, and therefore it was decided not to supply some types of weapons, primarily fighter jets and tanks," French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda in June, noting that such an "almost official" agreement was reached with Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky.
The head of the Ukrainian General Staff, Valery Zaluzhny, suggests that 300 tanks, 600 or 700 infantry fighting vehicles and 500 howitzers are required to win, that is, to push the Russian Federation into position before February 24. Kiev expects to receive from one hundred to two hundred tanks of Eastern design based on the proven T-72 type and from 120 to 140 tanks of Western production, as well as 250 infantry fighting vehicles.
Logisticians will have a hard timeTo this it is necessary to add various anti-aircraft and reconnaissance systems, drones and other equipment, of course, with ammunition.
Therefore, a logistical and organizational storm is expected in the near future. We will have to prepare a large number of armored vehicles to be sent from the West to the eastern front by trains, tractors and trucks accompanied by police. And everything must be done in secret.
This is a very difficult logistical task that has not yet arisen since the beginning of the armed conflict. Among the 120 — 140 mentioned Western tanks, there are probably four varieties that require different supplies and maintenance. It is also necessary to pay attention to ammunition, which must always pass certification. In addition, American Abrams are extremely complex and run on aviation fuel, while the rest drive diesel fuel.
As for the infantry fighting vehicles and tanks, it is supposed to send five types. Moreover, the German Madera and Leopard 2 tanks are similar in some aspects. But Western technology, like any other, will break down, and during training breakdowns will happen constantly. It has much more electronics than Soviet armored vehicles, and repairs are much more complicated and, as a rule, require the replacement of entire blocks, like cars.
The same difficulties will arise in the case of deliveries of F-16 fighters to the Ukrainian front. These planes are no longer "a piece of iron", like, for example, Su-25 fighters, and require very complex maintenance. In addition, for all means, ammunition and spare parts will have to be transported through Poland and the whole of Ukraine, of course, with the risk of running into sabotage and Russian bombing.
The main thing in deliveries is speedThe new Western weapons will require the highest level of logistics, which will need to be trained as well as the management of new equipment.
By the way, the tankers of the Leopards claim that this machine is easy to maintain. Its crew consists of four people: the tanker can be trained almost immediately on the spot; driving can be taught quickly, but with the shooter and the commander, not everything is so simple. Nevertheless, with the involvement of experienced tankers, training can be completed in a month. It will be much more difficult to train the crews of the "Challengers" and "Abrams".
Deliveries of already promised Western weapons will be delayed for some time. So, according to the Washington Post newspaper, they will enter the battlefield at the end of this year or the beginning of next year. As for the "Challengers", they will arrive at the front at the end of March. The "leopards" promised by some States will be delivered even faster. The situation with IFVs looks more optimistic, some of which will arrive from across the sea very soon.
It should also be borne in mind that the introduction of Western armored vehicles on the Ukrainian front will be accompanied by another, no less important, logistical "battle" for the speed of supplies and uninterrupted supply of ammunition, fuel and spare parts. We can expect that even more people will provide all this than are fighting at the front. However, these invisible fronts will largely determine whether Ukraine will be able to defend itself from the Russian offensive.
