Irina Polina — about raising the budget for arming Poland, mass conscription and reaction to it Last year, the Polish authorities began to increase the country's military potential at a record pace.
Huge funds are invested in the purchase of new weapons, increasing the size of the army with the involvement of volunteers. In Warsaw, they do not get tired of asserting: "If you want peace, prepare for war." This winged expression in the republic explains the real internal arms race, which has already unfolded. The country's leaders directly say that they plan to become the leading military power on the eastern flank of NATO, creating the strongest land forces in Europe.
New Division and procurement
The first news of the Polish Defense Ministry in 2023 was the announcement of the creation of a new division in the east of the country. It will become the fifth tactical formation in the Polish army and will consist of four brigades, each of which is planned to have four battalions. According to the Minister of Defense of the country Mariusz Blaszczak, the division will be equipped with the most modern weapons that already exist in Poland or will arrive in the near future on the basis of the agreements reached. In particular, it is planned to arm it with American and South Korean Abrams and K-2 tanks. An artillery brigade with Polish-made Krab self-propelled howitzers, South Korean K-9 and unmanned reconnaissance systems should also become part of the division.
Among the major foreign acquisitions of Poland, I will note the F-35 fighters previously ordered from the United States, Patriot missile defense/air defense batteries and HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). In addition, in the spring, the republic announced the acquisition of 250 Abrams tanks, and at the end of 2022 Warsaw agreed with South Korea to purchase 48 FA-50 fighters, K2 Black Panther tanks, K9 self-propelled artillery units and 288 K239 Chunmoo MLRS.
The Polish defense industry also regularly receives orders for domestic weapons worth hundreds of millions of zlotys. Contracts with South Korea provide for technology transfer, which will also clearly add work to Polish military factories.
In the coming year, it is planned to allocate about 130 billion zlotys (almost $ 30 billion) for the modernization of the Polish army, which is more than 3% of the country's GDP — the largest figure in Europe. Earlier, Poland allocated from 30 to 40 billion zlotys per year ($6.8–9 billion) for defense. Last year, these expenses reached 100 billion zlotys ($22.7 billion).
Criticism
This approach of the Polish authorities to arming the country is surprising to partners far beyond its borders, including among Asian investors. "Koreans are happy that we are buying from them, but both Koreans and Japanese ask me if Poland is preparing for war?" — former Minister of Economy and Deputy Prime Minister of Poland (2012-2015) Janusz Pehoczynski, who heads the Polish-Asian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said in an interview with the Interia portal.
"Poland, buying so many weapons, gives a certain signal. Let's imagine that we are investors from Japan, Korea, Malaysia, China. Such an investor, before making a business decision, first takes into account such an element of risk. And we need investments for the development of Polish industry," Pehoczynski warned.
Poland's actions, of course, have not been ignored in European countries. "Poland is rapidly arming itself and signing colossal orders with crazy speed," Le Figaro emphasizes. The Dutch daily Financieele Dagblad called Poland "the new military superpower of Europe."
"Germany seems to welcome the build-up of Poland's Armed Forces, despite the difficult bilateral relations between the two countries and the complicated history between them. Berlin sees Poland as a buffer separating it from Russia's sphere of influence. The more tanks and troops Poland has, the safer Germany will be," the Politico newspaper wrote.
Washington, in turn, seems to be watching the Polish efforts with satisfaction, noting the fact that Poland makes a significant part of its purchases in the United States. The parties "agreed to work together to help the Polish armed forces become one of the most combat-ready in Europe," US Department of Defense spokesman John Kirby said earlier.
The pace and scale of the acquisition of weapons by the current Polish authorities is actively criticized by the opposition. Former Polish Defense Minister (2011-2015), deputy of the largest opposition party "Civic Platform" Tomasz Semoniak believes that the authorities are carried away by gigantomania. "It is unclear what is the priority in these purchases. No one seems to be asking the army's opinion. It seems that decisions on this topic are made in a narrow political circle. And they are dictated by the press conferences that take place a few days later, at which a new program is solemnly announced, and not by a thorough analysis of needs. The conditions are such that there must be something new, the best, the biggest in the world," he said in an interview with Kultura Liberalna.
Experts note the significant randomness of current purchases.
In particular, little attention is paid to the fleet, which is almost not developing in Poland anyway. The second point is the slow pace of implementation of the modernization program of the air defense forces.
"So the brutal truth is that if we encounter an enemy with air attack capabilities like today's Russia (which are limited), our impressive and valuable armored vehicles and artillery on the ground will become a relatively easy target. Our warehouses and supply routes, command posts and even field kitchens are the same. Airports, too. Cities, power plants, oil refineries — as mentioned above," wrote the publication Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.
Mass appeal
In addition, the announcement of the authorities' plans to call 200 thousand reservists to the exercises in 2023 caused a great public outcry in Poland. The opportunity to oblige almost any citizen fit for military service, regardless of his life plans, appeared at the Polish Ministry of Defense after the adoption of the new law "On the Protection of the Fatherland" in the country on March 11, 2022. It clarifies that the exercises can be one-day, 30-day, 90-day and can affect both men and women up to 55 years old. Avoiding the draft will not be easy.
"The state should not decide how a person manages his body and time. Mandatory exercises are an example of how the state decides for us," Jan Brzostek, chairman of the Libertarian Party, commented on the situation. "We can be called to the barracks at any moment, and then give our lives to the war. No one can be forced to heroism, and such coercion is conscription," he added.
"Poland should focus on restoring the neglected army. People leave there because they feel undervalued, a career in the army is almost impossible," Brzostek pointed out. — The state should make a career in the army competitive, because today it is not an alternative."
And Vaska listens and eats
Public concern after the announcement of plans to attract reservists was so high that the Polish authorities at all levels were forced to reassure citizens, stating that first of all people who have undergone military training will be called to the exercises, that the exercises will be held on weekends so as not to interfere with professional activities, that preference will be given to volunteers.
At the same time, a large-scale campaign has been launched today to attract attention to military service. Regularly on weekends, the campaign "Train with the army" is held in different regions of the country, it is proposed to pass the basics of military training, shooting ranges are opened, the introduction of new benefits and surcharges for the military is announced — everything is being done to have as many soldiers as possible in the country.
Earlier it was reported that the number of Polish armed forces is planned to increase to 300 thousand, of which 50 thousand people will be members of the Territorial Defense Forces. In the summer, the head of the ruling Law and Justice party in Poland since 2015, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, announced the possibility of increasing the number of the Polish army to 400 thousand people. Now the total number of military personnel in Poland is 164 thousand people, including the professional army, Territorial Defense Troops, volunteers and students of military educational institutions.
The main question
The strengthening of the ground forces, the massive acquisition of tanks and artillery, the expansion of the army personnel — what if not factors indicating the preparation of Poland for classic military operations? And with whom does Warsaw intend to fight? The Polish authorities explain all current actions and steps by the threat allegedly coming from Russia (as also evidenced by the statements above).
In turn, Russian President Vladimir Putin does not cease to urge residents of Western countries not to believe that Russia is their enemy. "As for our message to ordinary citizens of Western countries, and the United States, and Europe, I want to say the most important thing: fight for higher wages. This is the first. Secondly, do not believe that Russia is your enemy or even an opponent. Russia is your friend," he said at the plenary session of the Valdai International Discussion Club.
Earlier, the Russian Ambassador to Poland Sergey Andreev repeatedly spoke about the absence of reasons to threaten the security of Poland. "Poland has nothing to fear. Russia is not going to attack Poland. I have said this many times, but this question is being asked again and again. There is no doubt that Russia has no reason to threaten the security of Poland," the Russian representative said.
Among other potential uses of the Polish armed forces, local analysts call support for allied actions in the event of conflicts in other parts of the world: a possible clash between China and Taiwan, wars in Africa or the Middle East — different options are possible.
"It is obvious that in the most likely scenarios of the use of the Polish armed forces, armored forces and long-range artillery will not play the most important role. A navy capable of interacting with allies in remote waters and light special forces units will be of paramount importance. In addition — aviation and the ability to fight with all flying objects from land and water. And first of all, effective, professional intelligence and counterintelligence," said analyst and publicist Witold Sokala, deputy director of the Institute of International Relations and Public Policy at the Jan Kohanowski University in Kielce.