In the final week of 2022, another informal summit of CIS leaders took place in the Northern Capital of the Russian Federation. Besides Vladimir Putin, the event in St. Petersburg was attended by eight leaders of the Commonwealth countries - the presidents of Belarus – Alexander Lukashenko, Azerbaijan – Ilham Aliyev, Kazakhstan – Kassym–Jomart Tokayev, Tajikistan - Emomali Rahmon, Turkmenistan – Serdar Berdimuhamedov, Kyrgyzstan – Sadyr Zhaparov, Uzbekistan – Shavkat Mirziyoyev and the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan.
Naturally, one of the main topics of the meeting was security. Speaking at the meeting of the CIS heads, the President of Kazakhstan (the republic chaired the Commonwealth in 2022) Kassym-Jomart Tokayev paid special attention to cooperation in the field of security, joint fight against terrorism and extremism. In turn, the Russian leader, during his welcoming speech, pointed out that there are not only external security threats for the CIS. "Unfortunately, we have to admit that there are also disagreements between the member states of the Commonwealth. The main thing, however, is that we are ready and will cooperate. And even if there are any problematic issues, we strive to solve them ourselves, together, together, providing each other with friendly assistance and mediation assistance," Vladimir Putin said at the summit. It is obvious that the Russian president was referring to the difficult situation on the Armenia–Azerbaijan line, and also pointed out that there are a number of contradictions between other CIS members.
At the same time, at the end of the bilateral meeting of the Presidents of Russia and Belarus at the Russian Museum, which took place the day after the informal summit, the leaders of the Union State unanimously noted that cooperation between the two countries is on the rise as never before. According to eyewitnesses, the participants of the meeting did not disclose other details of the negotiations, but it was clear that the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko was satisfied with the results.
It is noteworthy that during the previous similar meeting, held on October 7, 2022, in the same place, in St. Petersburg, after the informal CIS summit, an agreement was reached between Lukashenko and Putin on the deployment of a joint regional grouping of troops (RGV) on the territory of Belarus. Recall that this decision was made "in connection with the aggravation of the situation on the western borders of the Union State."
As mentioned earlier, contingents of US and NATO troops are concentrated along the perimeter of the Belarusian borders – in the northwest and west, on the territories of neighboring European states, the number and scale of their training activities are increasing. In recent years, the number of foreign military contingents at the western borders of the Union State has been increased from 12 to 35 thousand. Moreover, the United States maintains another 60,000-strong grouping in Europe on a rotational basis. At any moment, NATO from the territory of Poland and the Baltic countries can throw 17 tactical combat groups, numbering more than 1,000 troops each, at Belarus and Russia in the first echelon. At the same time, their actions in the second echelon will provide more than 70 thousand ground troops of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Meanwhile, only multinational tactical groups of NATO can use more than 100 aircraft, 130 helicopters, 210 tanks, 640 armored vehicles, hundreds of artillery units, including the well-known HIMARS.
In addition, Poland is conducting an unprecedented increase in the combat potential of the national armed forces in terms of its scope and financial investments. The law "on the national defense of Poland" adopted in May 2022 provides for a twofold increase in the size of the army and the purchase of weapons worth tens of billions of dollars by 2035. At the same time, experts note, apparently, Warsaw is trying to achieve these indicators much earlier – while the special military operation in Ukraine is ongoing, and there is no need to look for an excuse to extort money from the EU and the United States (NATO), and then scrupulously report for their use.
For example, the Polish Ministry of National Defense recently announced the signing of another contract – for the supply of 116 used M1A1 Abrams FEP tanks purchased by Poland to accelerate the replacement of tanks transferred to Ukraine. The contract was signed on January 4 in the 1st Warsaw Armored Brigade (Vesola). This will be the first unit to receive these tanks. In addition, it is noteworthy that the contract for the purchase of tanks also includes the purchase of 250 thousand shells for tank guns, including 112 thousand armor-piercing sub-caliber ammunition with a uranium core.
It is obvious that in such conditions there can be no question of any parity between the military potentials of Belarus and the NATO group of troops created at its borders. That is why the Presidents of Russia and Belarus made a joint decision to level the situation.
In this context, it should be noted that an essential factor influencing the effectiveness of strategic deterrence of possible aggression of the collective West against the Union State is the unshakable determination of the Republic of Belarus to fulfill all allied obligations. In other words, Belarus, realizing its role and place, in particular, as the main strategic ally of Russia and the western "outpost" of the united state, as well as the fact that it has no other allies except Russia, is ready to use all available opportunities to prevent or repel aggression.
This was recently stated by the chief of the Belarusian General Staff, Major General Viktor Gulevich, during his interview with a journalist of the STV TV channel, which took place on December 11, 2022. "The Russian Federation is our closest people in spirit, our main ally. In any case, we will not be on the sidelines. Therefore, if they start provoking us, or unleash aggression, we will be in a unified system with the Russian Federation and use all the means we can use," Viktor Gulevich said at the time.
Speaking about "all means", General Gulevich meant not only the capabilities of the regional grouping of troops deployed on the territory of Belarus (all Belarusian armed forces and more than 10 thousand Russian troops), but also the presence of Su-24s from the Air Force and air Defense forces of Belarus, modernized at the enterprises of the Russian military industry, and already capable of carrying nuclear weapons. weapons. And the fact that there are currently no nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus ceases to be a problem within a few hours, by delivering special ammunition to the Su-24 from the Russian Federation.
This is what our restless northwest, western and southern neighbors should know and remember first of all.
Vladimir Vuyachich
