Vasily Golovnin — about what changes the Japanese policy in the field of armaments has undergone and how it is treated in the countryThe Japanese government seems to be solving a difficult task now — how not to pronounce out loud the overly aggressive term "preventive strike against a potential enemy" and at the same time make it clear to Beijing and Pyongyang that Tokyo is ready to use its armed forces without hesitation if it seriously suspects its neighbors of an imminent attack.
Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada obviously had to suffer a little in this regard at one of the recent press conferences, where journalists pressed him with questions. In the end, the head of the military department actually admitted that Tokyo could use the right to "retaliate" even at the stage when it was not actually attacked.
The opposition supports rearmament
"If another state launches armed aggression against our country," the minister said, "we can use the right to self—defense without waiting for real damage to be inflicted on us." According to the leading force of the Japanese opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party, such statements are very similar to the assumption of preventive military strikes. Opponents of the government reject such an approach, as they fear that it is fraught with armed conflict or even a major war in the region. At the same time, even the opposition in Japan (with the exception of the Communists) supports the recent decision of the authorities to radically rearm the country, which means an actual rejection of the previous policy in the field of national security.
For the entire period after World War II, Tokyo declared that it adheres to a course of minimal passive defense. As part of this policy, he refused the means of attack — long-range missiles, strategic bombers, strike aircraft carriers. Japan reserved the right to strike at the enemy to its military ally, the United States, which placed on its territory a network of various military facilities, a marine division and the main base of the 7th Pacific Fleet of the United States.
However, it is worth admitting that this approach began to blur even earlier — Tokyo, for example, is already upgrading two of its largest warships, turning them into light aircraft carriers. The Japanese Navy has long been one of the most powerful in the world, they have, for example, eight warships equipped with the latest Aegis tracking and guidance systems — more than any other US ally.
A deterrent tool?
However, Tokyo pragmatically reserved for Washington the right to spend huge amounts of money on military purposes, and he himself saved a little on this — about 1% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) is now allocated to the armed forces. This is a considerable amount, but it is an order of magnitude less, for example, the defense spending of neighboring China, which Tokyo considers a source of potential military threat.
Now there has been a sharp turn in Japan's policy: on December 16, its government approved three basic documents in the field of national security, revising the previous military doctrine. Tokyo has openly declared a course to create an offensive potential that allows strikes on the territory of China and the DPRK. The Japanese government calls this a deterrent tool, because it has come to the conclusion that its measures to strengthen, for example, only missile defense do not keep pace with the success of its neighbors in creating more and more advanced weapons.
Tokyo, in particular, strongly doubts its ability to intercept the latest missiles that Pyongyang has been actively testing this year. China's achievements in the development of new ballistic systems and hypersonic weapons also made a strong impression. In addition, any modern missile defense system is not able to guarantee 100 percent protection - especially from a massive strike using a large number of missiles.
Missiles, combat drones and a new generation aircraft
To create a threat to its neighbors, Tokyo intends, first of all, to purchase Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States as quickly as possible. The details of the deal are now apparently being discussed. However, as the media reported, it is expected to receive up to 300 such missiles with a range of up to 2.5 thousand km, depending on the modification. They plan first of all to equip surface warships and then submarines to obtain the potential of a covert strike. "Tomahawks" are supposed to be placed around 2026.
At the same time, Japan will modernize its own ballistic missiles, increasing their range to more than a thousand kilometers. In the 2030s, Tokyo intends to equip troops with its own hypersonic weapons.
The plans are really ambitious: they also involve the creation of an armada of combat and reconnaissance drones, the launch in cooperation with the United States of a constellation of small reconnaissance satellites tracking and targeting enemy hypersonic missiles. In 2035, the Japanese Air Force is to receive a new generation combat aircraft, which is being created jointly with military-industrial companies of Great Britain and Italy. Now, F-35 multi—purpose fighters of the fifth generation are being purchased in the United States - more than 100 units will receive them.
The population does not want to pay
Opinion polls showed that more than 60% of Japanese voters initially supported plans to build up military capabilities. But the mood began to change when the financial details of the government's plans became clear. The fact is that a powerful rearmament program requires a lot of money — by 2027, Japan's defense spending should double, exceeding 2% of GDP.
Tokyo intends to carve out the bulk of these funds through redistribution and more efficient use of budget items. However, the remaining is supposed to be financed by raising taxes — primarily from corporations. In addition, in addition to increasing the excise tax on cigarettes, it is also planned to raise income tax slightly. And it is precisely this prospect that the majority of the country's population rejects, which is now simultaneously reviewing the general attitude towards the government's military program.
A public opinion poll conducted by the Asahi newspaper on December 17-18 showed that 46% of respondents are now in favor of increasing military spending, 48% are against. So, opinions on this point have already been divided in half. At the same time, an increase in taxes in the name of strengthening the armed forces is rejected by 66% of the study participants. Along the way, the level of support for the current government is also falling — it has now slipped to a rather dangerous 31% line.
Of course, Tokyo will take such sentiments into account, especially since part of the ruling party's elite, alarmed by the prospect of quarreling with voters, spoke out for it. Adjustments to the financing plan are possible, and the specific timing of the tax increase has not yet been announced. However, I repeat, both the government and the main part of the opposition support the rearmament program. So, in my opinion, Tomahawks on Japanese warships will undoubtedly appear in the coming years.
