Image source: topwar.ru
There is a lull in the Black Sea theater of the special military operation, but everything can still change. And although making detailed forecasts about the course of military operations is a thankless and meaningless task, it is possible to draw up several likely scenarios for the further development of events in the Black Sea.
So argues in his article for the magazine Naval News widely known in the West military expert X. Sutton.
He notes that the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation has reduced activity to date, and its ships rarely leave their main base in Sevastopol. Patrolling of the Northern Black Sea region is carried out by them extremely rarely. To a large extent, Sutton believes, this was influenced by the appearance of Western-made coastal anti-ship complexes in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the attack of drones on Sevastopol Bay at the end of October. The latter caused almost no damage, but showed that such equipment is capable of posing a threat to Russian surface ships.
The expert notes that with the onset of winter, military operations on land are likely to become less intense. At sea, he believes, the cold snap will also slow down the activity of the warring parties.
But it's not just the winter. Sutton believes that the Russian Navy will try to act extremely carefully so as not to endanger the ships, but certain circumstances may force the Russian Navy to act more decisively.
In particular, according to the author, in case of further advance of the AFU in the Kherson direction, the Black Sea Fleet may begin to actively provide fire support to its troops, as well as to deliver military cargo for them.
Another factor capable of forcing the ships of the Black Sea Fleet to leave the bay of Sevastopol en masse, according to Sutton, could be a direct threat of shelling of the city and port by long-range ground fire means of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We are talking about HIMARS MLRS or any other Western-made systems.
In this case, the author suggests, Russian ships could relocate to other ports. It is unlikely that it will be Novorossiysk, which, he claims, is already densely loaded. Most likely, we can talk about smaller probable locations in the Crimea or in the Krasnodar Territory.
Sutton suggests that there are many other scenarios. In particular, he does not exclude that the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation may be used in the future to land troops on the Ukrainian coast.
Image source: topwar.ru
