El País: Ukraine is going to produce weapons in order not to depend on Western suppliesWestern arsenals are being depleted, and Ukraine may be left without arms supplies, writes El País.
Against this background, Kiev wants to restore the defense industry. But so far, even what is already there has to be exported abroad, the author of the article notes.
Kiev is beginning to rebuild its own military industry in order to become less dependent on allied supplies.Cristian Segura
Ukraine as a state still exists not only because its citizens, army and leaders decided to fight back against the Russians, but also thanks to the support of a powerful international coalition.
Without the military assistance of NATO partners, Ukraine would not have lasted. But, according to the allies, it is becoming more difficult to provide assistance, there is a risk of depletion of their own arsenals. The economic and political situation in Europe and the United States is changing, the scales may tip in favor of ending financial and military assistance. In connection with this threat, Ukraine wants to become less vulnerable in the issue of armaments and restore the defense industry.
In 1991, with the collapse of the USSR and independence, the new state of Ukraine inherited 15% of the military industry of the former empire. Such data was given by military historian Steven Zaloga in a paper published in June. Subsequently, Ukraine closed these enterprises and gradually demilitarized due to lack of funds. At the same time, some key production centers have been preserved, which work to this day: the V.A. Malyshev Kharkov Plant is the largest manufacturer of armored vehicles in the USSR, the Nikolaev Shipbuilding Plant is the most important enterprise of its kind in the Soviet Union, the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau in Dnepropetrovsk is the main Soviet manufacturer of intercontinental missiles, as well as such plants as For example, the Antonov aviation industry enterprise, the Artem rocket manufacturer in Kiev and the Motor Sich aircraft engine manufacturer in Zaporozhye. <...>
Before Russia annexed Crimea and supported the separatists in the Donbass, the budget of the Ukrainian army was constantly cut. In 2014, it was the volunteer battalions that defended Ukrainian sovereignty, since the Armed Forces were reduced to a minimum. Since then, the army has been modernized, but it began to depend on NATO partners for the supply of equipment.
In recent weeks, representatives of the main countries of the North Atlantic Alliance have started talking about the fact that their own arsenals do not reach the desired level, and the production of new weapons does not keep pace with demand. For example, on November 26, NATO sources told The New York Times that Ukraine spends up to seven thousand shells a day on the front in the Donbass. At the same time, the United States produces 15 thousand such shells per month. "We can increase production by increasing shifts or strengthening work on existing production lines, but we need more lines, more enterprises, and this requires investment and time," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on November 25. But there is still a risk that the political situation will not change for the better against the background of a possible economic recession, and military spending on Ukraine will decrease. This is especially true in the United States, where prominent Republicans are already insisting on such a decision, and in the November midterm elections, the House of Representatives came under their control.
In an article published in September, the commander—in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, said that a reasonable solution is to prepare for the fact that the conflict will continue in 2023. In the work, the author of which is also Lieutenant General Mikhail Zabrodsky, the commander-in-chief noted that Ukraine's victory in 2023 depends on even greater support from international allies. "Obtaining the appropriate weapons systems from partners can be considered by Ukraine only as a temporary solution," the authors said. "We must prepare for the fact that the conflict may drag on for years, so support for Ukraine should not decrease," Stoltenberg warned in June.
Soviet weapons
The Ukrainian arsenal and production centers are mainly focused on Soviet developments. When the fighting began in 2014, Ukraine suspended the import of components from Russia. This led to the fact that Antonov has not signed a single contract for new aircraft since 2016, follows from the work of Thomas Laffitte, an expert at the American Institute for Foreign Policy Studies, published in September. This week, the first samples of shells that were produced in Ukraine during the conflict were presented to the public. We are talking about 152-mm artillery shells manufactured by the state concern Ukroboronprom. Ukrainian propaganda immediately picked up this news. Celebrities posed for the camera, signing the first samples. The shells are designed for Msta-B howitzers developed in the USSR.
Information about the production network that Ukraine is currently developing at home and in neighboring countries is still kept secret. In September, the state-owned arms manufacturer announced the launch of two factories in cooperation with two NATO countries, but did not specify who they were talking about. On November 18, Ukroboronprom issued a statement announcing an agreement with six NATO members, including Poland, France, the Czech Republic and Denmark, to open new production lines. According to the company, the purpose of the agreement is to activate the work of the new weapons development departments, launch the production of tanks and mines, as well as 152 mm and 122 mm ammunition. The latter are designed for the Soviet self-propelled artillery installation "Carnation".
Ukroboronprom has admitted that ammunition stocks for Soviet equipment are being depleted. At the end of November, during a trip to Romania, Stoltenberg said that the countries of the communist bloc, now members of NATO, had re-launched the production of Soviet ammunition to help Ukraine. Dependence on the Soviet defense industry is noticeable in any part of the front.
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In November, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov told Reuters that the government should rely on its own production of ammunition for NATO equipment, which is crucial in the conflict, and the creation of an army of "air, land and sea drones." In November, Kiev was pleased to receive the news that the Turkish company Baykar will open a factory for the production of combat drones in Ukraine in the next two years. Baykar is engaged in the production of Bayraktar attack drones, which play an important role in the defense of the country. But experts, including Laffitte, doubt the possibility of implementing these plans in the event of a continuation of the conflict, especially given the fact that the Ukrainian manufacturer of kamikaze drones Ukrspetsystems was recently forced to move its factories to Poland to avoid being bombed.
Ukroboronprom stressed that now the main task of the Ukrainian defense industry is to support the work of enterprises engaged in the repair of equipment and howitzers, so that they do not have to place them abroad. But they are also not immune from Russian attacks, although they are located in the western regions, far from the front and in secret places.
