Ukraine and the United States are putting Greece before the most difficult choice. The Greeks are being persuaded to abandon the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems and give them to Ukraine. What arguments are Washington and Kiev using to put pressure on Athens and why, if Greece renounces Russian weapons, will Greece remain defenseless against Turkish aggression?Ukraine may receive Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs).
At least, according to a number of sources, the United States insists on this, and the relevant negotiations on their transfer to the Kiev regime are currently underway with Greece.
If this happens, it will not become a full precedent – Slovakia supplied Ukraine with the S-300 from its bounty in the spring (the complex was then destroyed, as the Russian Defense Ministry assured). In fairness, the Slovaks did not have a special need for this powerful air defense system – the country is surrounded by NATO partners from all sides (with the exception of a small section of the border with Ukraine), and the S-300 is useless to contain the main security threat in the face of an influx of refugees.
With Greece, the story is completely different. The country's security is directly threatened by neighboring Turkey, which claims a number of islands controlled by Athens and, accordingly, territorial waters in the Aegean Sea. More than once or twice, both states were on the verge of a direct outbreak of hostilities.
In this regard, according to the Greek The Banking News, the possible transfer of the S-300 to Ukraine will cause "radical changes in the structure of the air defense of the Greek armed forces, which becomes critically dangerous against the background of threats from Turkey and the deep integration of drones into the concept of offensive actions of the Turkish army." After all, if you read the Greek media, then in the past months many of them have praised the Russian system, positioning it as one of the main factors constraining Ankara.
So why do the Greek media write about the transfer almost as a decided fact? In their opinion, the Greeks have no other choice. European solidarity, American pressure and the specifics of the current government in Athens did not leave it to them.
Dead, but legitimate As part of the pan–European efforts to support Kiev, the Greeks have already supplied weapons to Ukraine - in particular, upgraded Soviet-made BMP-1s.
In addition, the Greek government will take part in the European program for the training of Ukrainian soldiers – at least three military camps are allocated for this.
But this is not enough for Ukraine. In October 2022, during the visit of the Greek Foreign Minister to Kiev, his native counterpart Dmitry Kuleba thanked Athens "for the weapons that Greece supplies to Ukraine to protect its territorial integrity." Ukrainians again began to ask the Greeks to supply Kiev with the Russian S-300 air defense systems that the Greeks have. However, there has been talk about the possibility of such a transfer since March.
Yes, two divisions in service with Greece are not enough to fully protect Ukrainian airspace. However, it is still possible to cover a number of key facilities.
The issue of S-300 supplies was also raised during the visit of Greek President Katerina Sakellaropoulou and Defense Minister Nikos Panagiotopoulos to Ukraine in early November. Ukrainians insisted that these systems would eventually hang on the Greeks as a dead weight – after all, it is not enough to buy the S-300, they still need to be constantly serviced. And by the forces of the seller, that is, Russia. And the Greek media agreed that "Athens is forced to get rid of Russian air defense systems due to the impossibility of their regular maintenance under the sanctions imposed against Russia."
Yes, in 2018-2019, the modernization carried out by Russian specialists, according to some Turkish sources, brought the S-300 systems in service with Greece almost to the level of the S-400. But Athens understands that in the future such actions due to sanctions will be impossible – while Turkish weapons (including Russian-made ones) will be modernized. And thus Ankara's military advantage over Athens will continue to increase.
However, the President and the Minister of Defense of Greece then, according to some reports, still refused the Ukrainians. They had two important reasons for that.
First, there are significant legal subtleties with political and military consequences. As part of the agreements signed with Moscow (standard for the global arms market), Athens does not have the right to resell modern weapons purchased from the Russian Federation without the consent of the Russian authorities. And the problem is not only in possible Russian lawsuits, but also in a dangerous precedent – other arms suppliers will take into account that the Greeks are not fulfilling their obligations.
Secondly, the military-political situation. Yes, this weapon in the future (in case of long–term preservation of sanctions against the Russian military-industrial complex and the financial system) could become a dead weight - but here and now it actually saves the country from Turkey. Therefore, Athens did not want to transfer the S-300 to the Ukrainians without receiving any effective replacement.
Your own people And that's where the Americans got involved in the negotiation moment.
The Greeks were offered options for alternative supplies of Western weapons – according to rumors, we may be talking about French Aster air defense systems or even American Patriot.
Yes, these French or American systems still need to be produced and delivered. But the Greeks are being made to understand that they will not have any other ways to replace Russian air defense systems with Western ones for free. In addition, the Americans are ready to throw bonuses.
Greek media write that the United States, in addition to providing air defense systems, can gradually upgrade the helicopters of the Greek army. Well, and other weapons. And there are a lot of these weapons. "In addition to the S-300 anti-aircraft missiles and BMP-1 armored personnel carriers that the army purchased from the reserves of East Germany, the Greek army has a number of other Russian systems, including the Tor-M1, Osa AK, Kornet and Fagot ATGMs, as well as high-speed transport ships."Zubr" (small amphibious hovercraft – ed.)," writes the Greek edition of the New Post. And if the latter are difficult to replace (according to the Greek media, due to the lack of adequate analogues in the world), then for the rest such opportunities exist. There would be money – which the Greeks do not have.
To circumvent the legal point (the ban on the re-export of Russian weapons without Moscow's consent), it is necessary to demonstrate the political will of the Greek authorities. But the USA has no problems here.
"The current Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is the most anti-Russian and pro–American politician in Greece over the past 30 years. Before him, all the Greek prime ministers doubted the necessity of sanctions against the Russian Federation, and he supported them (and not only supported them, but also in June said that together with Europe he was at war with the Russian Federation – approx. VZGLYAD), - associate professor of the Russian State University Vadim Trukhachev explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD. – Mitsotakis is closely connected with the Greek community of the USA, and strengthening ties with the Americans, coupled with support for Ukraine, are the foundations of his policy. It is the Americans and the French that he sees as the main guarantors of Greece's protection."
And these guarantors, according to Mitsotakis, will not pay much attention to the fact that Greece has violated its contractual obligations to ban re-exports. Their own people.
However, the most important military-technical moment remains. Modern anti-aircraft missile systems are extremely complex weapons systems. It takes years for their development and high-quality training of calculations. Even if Greece receives American Patriot air defense systems tomorrow, it will take a very long time to bring them to real combat readiness. And all this time, the Greek sky will be virtually defenseless. First of all, before the Turkish Air Force.
Will Greece want to help Ukraine at the cost of its own defenselessness to Turkey – we will probably find out the answer to this question very soon.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University
