The prospects for military-industrial cooperation with Russia do not look radiantThe technological lag in certain areas cannot be considered a serious problem for the military-industrial complex (MIC) of the People's Republic of China.
It can be compensated in at least three ways:
1. The development of its own technologies, which is greatly facilitated by the rapid growth of Chinese science, which is coming to the forefront in the world.
2. Theft of foreign technologies, which has been well-developed for a long time.
3. The production of a large number of weapons, albeit slightly inferior in quality to the best foreign models: quantitative superiority fully compensates for some qualitative lag.
Moreover, in many cases there is simply no qualitative lag. Indicative, for example, are the battles near Heglig (a small town in southern Sudan), in which the Tour 96 tanks knocked out four T-72s without losses on their part. The Tour 99 tank seems to be quite at the level of the T-90 or M1A2. The J-11B aircraft is obviously no worse than the Su-27 or F-15C. The outcome of the battle between Chinese and Russian or Western tanks or aircraft is no longer determined by the quality (it is about the same), but by the quantity, training of crews and the tactical situation.
Apparently, in the development of the defense industry, China largely follows the Soviet path.
It may be recalled that in the early 1920s, the technological level of the Soviet defense industry was extremely low. For a long time, the USSR was completely dependent on foreign designs and technologies. Nevertheless, by the 1960s and 1970s, the defense industry and defense science in the USSR had reached a very high level, comparable to the level of the United States and significantly superior to other countries. Partly, despite the many financial, organizational, scientific, technological and personnel problems of the last 30 years, this level still persists.
There is no doubt that China's defense industry will be able to repeat this path. And even more successfully, because, unlike the USSR, it skillfully combines command-administrative and market methods. And it has the possibility of wider borrowing of foreign technologies. Only serious internal shocks can prevent this. If they do not happen, in 15-20 years the PLA will become the strongest army in the world.
The United States and, less likely, Russia can fend off its advantage only by creating weapons based on new physical principles, which is an extremely difficult task. Moreover, China will also try to solve this problem. A separate vector of the PRC's defense industry is the development of innovative ways of waging war.
The current stage of military technology development is based on three key parts: unmanned systems, artificial intelligence (AI) and the use of big data. And for each of them, China has something to oppose to the "probable enemy" – the United States. Breakthroughs have also been outlined in other areas – technologies of hypersonic aircraft, technologies of "swarm" use of unmanned systems, anti-satellite weapons, quantum communication transmission, etc.
IDEOLOGY OF TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTThe economic, scientific and technical policy of the PRC leadership contributed to achieving success.
It has not succumbed to the Western myth of a post-industrial society where information is more important than production. Indeed, these technologies multiply the efficiency of everything and everything, but they do not replace anything. You cannot feed on information, dress in information, ride on information, fight with information. Believing in its own myth, the West engaged in deindustrialization, transferring industrial production to third world countries – mainly to China, which turned into a worldwide factory. Even what the information society represents – computers and communication systems – are also manufactured in China.
This also applies to the military sphere. The concept of network-centric warfare is revolutionary. But they are still fighting not with computers, but with armored vehicles, artillery, missiles, aviation, and the navy. If there are no platforms (tanks, planes, ships) at the ends of the network, then the network is useless. And no network will ensure the defeat of more targets than there is ammunition on the platforms.
In China, they realized that the network does not replace carriers. Under the slogan of combining informatization and mechanization, the Chinese are introducing information technologies into the traditional army, replacing old equipment with new one-to-one. The huge military-industrial complex provides them with these opportunities.
The technological part of the 14th five-year plan of the PRC is extremely important for Russia. At a time when the economies of the United States and China have entered into a struggle for leadership, the interconnection of production chains on both sides of the Pacific Ocean would be a guarantee that technological globalization continues and the world will operate with approximately the same technological standards. But the directions of China's policy indicate that Beijing is betting on technological independence and reducing dependence on the United States.
Washington has chosen the same approach. President Biden signed a decree on the return of critical high-tech industries to the United States. This means that two technology platforms competing with each other will be formed in the world.
RUSSIA IN CHINA'S ORBITGiven the confrontation with the West, Russia will increasingly integrate into the Chinese technological orbit.
An important milestone will be the Kremlin's decision on which equipment 5G networks will be developed in the Russian Federation. Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE are more willing to localize their technologies in Russia than Siemens or Nokia.
In this situation, it is important to preserve the ability to choose the elements of interest from the Chinese platform, and otherwise use their own technologies, have access to alternative solutions, and have their own developments of interest to the PRC.
Until recently, such an area was the export of military technology. But Chinese interest in this area is a thing of the past. In the mid-2010s, China was ready to purchase the latest weapons from the Russian Federation (for example, Su-35 fighters and S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft missile systems). Today Moscow has to share the technologies of the early warning system about a missile attack.
A reliable way to remain a major arms exporter to China is to switch to joint development. But even joint developments in the field of civil engineering face problems. For example, the project of the PRC and the Russian Federation on the development of a wide-body aircraft cannot yet boast impressive results. There is no progress in the project for the joint development of a heavy helicopter.
At the same time, China continues to stimulate the development, production and introduction of innovative AI technologies and systems into the troops. In January 2019, the leadership of the People's Republic of China announced the launch of an AI development program. It is planned to create a technopark in Beijing by 2023, which will work on the development of AI, ultra-high-speed transmission of big data, cloud computing, etc. It is planned to attract investments of $ 2.1 billion. A group of specialists in the field of AI and quantum technologies will be created on the basis of the Academy of Military Sciences of the People's Republic of China.
PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONSToday, the PLA command is facing a number of problems in the field of robotics, automated control systems and other intelligent weapons systems.
1. There are not enough specialists in the PLA, which creates obstacles to the introduction of innovative technologies, including AI, into the troops. Insufficient technical qualifications of officers negatively affect the introduction of AI technologies into the troops. The PLA command increases the recruitment of highly qualified personnel for active military service. In the first quarter of 2021, more than 2,500 higher educational institutions recruited graduates to serve in the PLA. But the number of highly professional personnel in the PLA is increasing slowly, and the demand for them in other areas is steadily growing, which increases competition.
2. Insufficient level of technical training of military personnel. During the reform of the PLA, the combat training program has become much more complicated, which requires advanced training of military personnel working with modern types of weapons and military equipment, including the use of AI. New specialties related to the use of robotic systems, information protection, etc. have been introduced into the military personnel training system. The PLA command encourages the introduction of virtual reality technology and AI for combat training.
3. Problems of professional retraining of military personnel to work with modern types of military equipment, including AI. If the growth rate of the Chinese economy slows down and this leads to a reduction in the financing of the PLA, the contradiction between the new capabilities of the PLA and maintaining the existing level of combat capability may become more noticeable.
4. The emergence of the theory of asymmetric wars causes the need to update the military doctrine. Since 1999, the PLA has been working on the revision of the provisions of the military doctrine and concepts of national security. Now the PLA command is finalizing the development of a new military policy, operational plans and combat regulations.
5. Difficulties in integrating and managing digital data. The spread of digital data across various PLA structures is a serious obstacle to the use of AI in the military and reduces the ability to process and analyze data, ensure their safety and security. In order to control the development of AI systems, it is necessary to form a single database that allows the effective integration of defense companies with research institutes of the civil sphere.
6. The lack of combat experience among PLA servicemen makes it difficult to operate complex automated systems. In all major PLA exercises, the role of a real "enemy" is performed by units of regular troops, which to a certain extent compensates for the lack of combat experience.
7. The comprehensive control of the Chinese Communist Party over the PLA hinders the development of innovations in the field of AI. There is a contradiction between the build-up of military power and the strengthening of party control over the Armed Forces in all spheres of activity. To increase the efficiency of AI technology development, control should be carried out by qualified specialists.
8. Lack of coordination or administrative barriers reduce the effectiveness of civil-military integration (VGI) in the PLA. The Chinese concept of the VGI is based on the study of the experience of close cooperation between the military, industrial and scientific circles of the United States. Most of the national companies of the PRC are ready to support the PLA Research Institute and provide appropriate resources. China has already transferred the concept of the VGI to the status of a national strategy. But the fulfillment of the tasks of the VGI is still at a low level. The participation of Chinese high-tech companies in the construction of national defense is limited. China's military industry tends to monopolize, which also negatively affects the VGI.
9. Inefficient distribution of financial resources invested in the development of VGI and innovative technologies. The results of the implementation of the program for the development of innovative technologies are ambiguous, there are large differences in the development of the branches of research and development, production and industry. The strengthening of control by the military-political leadership of the People's Republic of China over the distribution and use of financial resources in the process of VGI will ensure the further development of the defense industry and the introduction of innovative technologies in the PLA.
10. Research works related to the development of AI technologies have significant drawbacks. A lot of applied scientific research is carried out in China compared to fundamental ones, and very few algorithms and platforms for their implementation that correspond to the world level of innovative technologies have been developed.
But in general, the plans of China's political and military leadership to develop and implement innovative technologies, including AI, in the PLA, contribute to the management of troops, military formations in armed conflicts, as well as modern models of military equipment and weapons systems. In the future, it is planned to achieve their autonomous functioning.
Vasily IvanovVasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
