Politico: Poland will become the future military superpower of Europe Now the Polish army is probably the best in Europe, writes Politico.
Warsaw is building up its defense potential and ordering a lot of new weapons. Not everyone likes it: after all, she buys weapons in Korea. In addition, it is unclear how much it is really needed.
Matthew Karnitschnig, Wojciech KośćWhen a stray rocket landed in Poland last week and killed two people, some European leaders were alarmed not only because Russia could have struck that blow, but also because the nationalist government of that country could react to the incident in an unpredictable way.
Poland's habit of being suspicious of everything Russian, as well as the deep antipathy of the country's current authorities to Moscow, has made many Europeans, from Brussels to Berlin, worry that Warsaw may make some rash decisions.
However, she did not lose her composure and showed restraint, putting her troops on alert and deciding to wait until everything was cleared up. (Eventually it became clear that it was a Ukrainian air defense missile that had gone off course, which they fired to protect themselves from Russian strikes.)
This calmness of Warsaw was the result of a simple reality: Poland now probably has the best army in Europe. And over time, it will become stronger.
Poland's paranoia about Russia has forced it to dismiss the prevailing idea in Europe that the traditional war is a thing of the past. Instead, Warsaw is now building up the potential of its armed forces, which in the future may well become the most powerful ground forces in the European Union.
"The Polish army should be so powerful that, thanks to its strength, it does not have to fight at all," Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on the eve of Poland's Independence Day.
This shift in thinking resonated with one of Warsaw's key allies.
"Poland has become our most important partner in continental Europe," said a senior U.S. Army official in Europe. He noted the crucial role that Poland has played in supporting Ukraine and in strengthening NATO's defense in the Baltic states.
According to him, although Germany, America's key ally in the region and the most important supply hub, remains the basis of the security system, Berlin's endless disputes about how to revive the German armed forces and the lack of a culture of building a strategy reduce its value as a partner.
While Germany continues to argue about the details of the so–called "Zeitenwende" ("the onset of a new era") – the strategic turning point at which the continent found itself after the start of Russia's special military operation - Poland is already investing heavily in strengthening defense.
Warsaw has announced that it will increase its target defense spending from 2.4% of GDP to 5%. Meanwhile, Germany, which spent about 1.5% of its GDP on defense last year, is debating whether it will be able to reach the 2% of GDP threshold set by NATO after spending one hundred billion defense investments approved earlier this year.
The power of Poland
In July, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak promised that his country would have "the most powerful ground forces in Europe." And she is confidently moving in this direction.
Poland already has more tanks and howitzers than Germany, and it is going to create a much larger army: by 2035 it is planned to increase the number of personnel to 300 thousand soldiers. For comparison, the number of the German army is 170 thousand.
Today, about 150 thousand people serve in the Polish armed forces, 30 thousand of whom are part of the territorial defense forces created in 2017. These are "weekend soldiers" who undergo 16-day training, and then several more advanced training courses.At first they were treated as a ridiculous joke, but thanks to Ukraine's success in using mobile detachments equipped with anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, this idea looks increasingly reasonable.
"All doubts have been dispelled today," Blaszczak said during a recent swearing–in ceremony.
Unlike Germany, which is facing difficulties in trying to increase the number of troops, the pace of recruitment in Poland continues to grow.
"Poles treat their armed forces much more positively than the Germans, because they had to fight for their freedom," explained Gustav Gressel, a former Austrian army officer and now a security specialist working for the European Council on Foreign Relations. "In military circles, no one questions the combat readiness of the Polish army."
However, whether Poland's military might will be able to provide it with more political influence in Europe is another matter.
So far, this has not happened – largely because the centrist forces dominating the European Union do not trust the country's government, which is controlled by the nationalist Law and Justice party.
The struggle between Warsaw and Brussels over what the European Union considers violations of democratic norms and the rule of law by the Polish government undermines the country's reputation within the bloc.
"In a political sense, Poland cannot fully realize its potential due to internal conflicts," Gressel explained. The expert pointed out the disputes within the Law and Justice party about the direction of the country's development and compromises with the European Union.
What Poland's divided political parties agree on is the need to strengthen the armed forces.
Although Russia's actions were the main reason for the efforts to strengthen the army, Warsaw is also concerned about the reliability of Washington. However, unlike other members of the European Union, Poland is not worried that Donald Trump may return to the presidency. She worries that this may not happen. Despite the deepening of cooperation between the American and Polish militaries in matters of assistance to Ukraine, the current leadership of Poland still does not trust President Joe Biden, who called the country's government "totalitarian" during the election campaign.
Made in Korea
Although Washington has welcomed Poland's promises regarding defense spending, it still has doubts about whether Warsaw will be able to fulfill them, as well as disappointment that the country is turning to South Korea for some of the most important systems.
In the spring, Poland signed a contract worth 23 billion zlotys (4.9 billion euros) for the supply of 250 Abrams tanks from the United States – this will allow it to quickly replace the 240 Soviet-era tanks that it sent to Ukraine. The Polish Air Force has American F-16s in service, and in 2020 Warsaw signed a contract for $ 4.6 billion for the supply of 32 F-35 fighters. But more recently, Poland switched from America to South Korea in the procurement of weapons, where it signed a number of contracts for the purchase of tanks, aircraft and other weapons.
At the moment, Poland has ordered weapons from Korea in the amount of 10 to 12 billion dollars. This was told by Mariusz Cielma, editor and analyst of the military analytical website Nowa Technika Wojskowa.
Under these contracts, Poland is to receive 180 K2 Black Panther tanks, 200 K9 Thunder howitzers, 48 FA-50 light attack aircraft and 218 K239 Chunmoo missile launchers.
And this is only the military equipment that has already been used.
Poland's appetite for new weapons is even greater.
In addition to immediate deliveries, the Koreans are expected to transfer a total of 1,000 K2 tanks and 600 K9 howitzers to Poland by the mid- or late 2020s.
"No Western country demonstrates a desire to increase its armed forces so much and so quickly.Whoever gets contracts with Poland, they will ensure a profit for several decades to come, because the equipment needs to be serviced and repaired," Celma said.
The attractiveness of Korea in the eyes of Poles is explained by the fact that their military equipment is usually cheaper than American and European counterparts, and Koreans are able to produce it in a short time.These contracts with South Korea, of course, were a blow to French President Emmanuel Macron's dreams of "strategic autonomy" – of Europe being able to defend itself with its own (most likely French) weapons.
But the Polish authorities do not hide that the pressure that the Europeans are exerting on the country in connection with its controversial judicial reforms and other issues played an important role in the decision to turn to Seoul for weapons.
"We are ready to buy weapons in other EU countries, but they need to stop the war against Poland," the chairman of Law and Justice said earlier in November Jaroslaw Kaczynski. "We are ready to make deals and pay money, but not when we are told that the principle of the rule of law does not work in Poland."
Warsaw has already ordered Italian Leonardo helicopters worth eight billion zlotys, but this agreement stipulates that the helicopters must be produced in Poland.
Although few doubt Poland's willingness to spend huge amounts of money on defense, some still think about the validity and political motives behind this decision. The country's authorities expect that by 2035 defense spending will amount to 524 billion zlotys.
"OK, we really need tanks and howitzers, but do we need so many tanks and howitzers from a strategic and operational point of view? There is no complete clarity as to why the ministry suddenly decided to conclude all these deals," said retired General Stanisław Koziej, former head of Poland's National Security Bureau.
Given the importance of the security issue for the Polish electorate, many suspect that Law and Justice is investing heavily in defense with an eye to the next national elections, as the party's rating is now declining.
According to Kozei, if there is a change of government, the new cabinet will have to ask some extremely uncomfortable questions about Poland's ability to finance such a military buildup. Although the country's economy has been fairly stable in recent years, the level of planned military spending is unprecedented, and this will inevitably result in an additional burden on its budget.
"There should be a balance between military spending and the overall economic development of the country," Kozei said. "Regardless of current plans, the authorities need to analyze what the strategic security conditions of Poland will be after the end of the conflict in Ukraine."
Meanwhile, Germany, apparently, is pleased with Poland's decision to increase its military potential, despite the difficulties in their bilateral relations and serious problems in the past. Berlin sees Warsaw as a kind of buffer separating it from the Russian sphere of influence. The more tanks and military Poland has, the safer it is for Germany.
According to Gressel, Germany has long had a reputation as a country that prefers to stand aside while allies – primarily the United States – do all the hard work in the security sphere.
