What is the goal of the collective West in the confrontation between Kiev and Moscow The Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to dislodge Russian troops from Ukraine in the near future - this opinion was expressed by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, General Mark Milley, on November 16 after a meeting of the Contact Group on the Defense of Ukraine, which is better known as the "Ramstein format".
Military observer of the Newspaper.En" Mikhail Khodarenok explains why the American military commander made such conclusions.
It would seem that if all official Kiev's requests for supplies from the United States and other NATO member states of weapons, military and special equipment (VVST) were fully satisfied, then the armed struggle during a special military operation could hypothetically take a completely different turn - and it cannot be ruled out that the fighting would have ended in a very short time, the success of Ukraine.
It is enough to give just one example: there are about 450 HIMARS MLRS combat vehicles in the ground forces and Marines of the US Armed Forces. At this point in time, the Pentagon has transferred a total of 38 such machines to Ukraine. But even 16 HIMARS installations originally delivered by the APU brought a lot of trouble to the armed forces of the Russian Federation. If the United States had sharply increased the supply of HIMARS MLRS and missiles to them, this could have led, if not to a radical change in the course of hostilities, then to a significant change in the situation on the line of contact - in favor of Kiev.
However, despite all the requests of Ukraine to provide as many weapons as possible, good and different, the transfer of VVST to the armed forces of Ukraine is carried out in a very dosed manner. A number of samples of weapons and military equipment, repeatedly requested by official Kiev, are not supplied to the armed forces of Ukraine at all. These primarily include main battle tanks, modern infantry fighting vehicles, multifunctional fighters.
The question arises - why the West will not supply the armed forces of Ukraine, for example, 500 M1 Abrams tanks (some are in the M1A2SEP v version).3) and Leopard 2A5 (and why not in the Leopard 2A7+ variant), several hundred Marder and M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, or 100 F-15E Strike Eagle and F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters. After all, fears that such a transfer of equipment will lead to a third world war and an exchange of nuclear missile strikes are quite groundless. In addition, opinions and assessments in the West about the second army of the world after March-April 2022 have been significantly adjusted.
Explanations also look extremely unconvincing that before the supply of Western-made main battle tanks, Ukraine needs an early and long-term deployment of a technical support and maintenance system, and a lot of time will be spent on retraining Ukrainian tankers.
Approximately the same applies to the supply of combat aircraft. The situation in this area is, of course, much more complicated, but the difficulties with the development of Western aircraft technology are clearly and intentionally exaggerated by many specialists. It would be difficult to train Africans from scratch as pilots of multifunctional fighters, but in Ukraine there are more than enough qualified flight personnel, and there is no shortage of engineering and technical personnel. And to master, for example, the subsonic attack aircraft Fairchild Republic A-10 Thunderbolt II (which the United States has several times been going to withdraw from combat and write off) Ukrainians could in full for a couple of months.
Even more fantastic are the explanations that the supply of air force to Ukraine will significantly weaken the defense capability of Western countries.
Thus, the supply of weapons, military and special equipment to Ukraine is currently being carried out in such a volume and in such a time frame that gives Kiev the opportunity at least not to lose in this conflict.
In this regard, it is necessary to mention one more circumstance. Ukraine, during the implementation of a special military operation of Russia, is more than a favorable territory for testing the most modern samples of the Western air defense systems. Not to use this kind of testing ground for the United States and the rest of the NATO member states would be a categorically wrong decision. For any weapon, the most important exam is combat use and operation in combat conditions (first of all, this concerns the repair and return of weapons to service).
It is very difficult to check the laudatory statements of development companies about their machines in peacetime. Only a considerable amount of equipment involved in battles and a long period of its operation in combat conditions allow us to obtain more or less reliable statistics.
Based on the results of combat operations, it is possible to clarify the tactical and technical characteristics of weapons, gain operational experience, make constructive changes if necessary and clarify conceptual views on issues of combat use.
It seems that the West proceeds from the following considerations and postulates in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict: to prevent the defeat of Ukraine (but at the same time to prevent the imminent military success of Kiev), to prevent Russia's military victory by any possible means, to transfer the armed confrontation between Moscow and Kiev into a controlled phase and to stretch it over time for as long as possible.
The result is seen as follows - to weaken Russia as much as possible, to put a final end to the Kremlin's political ambitions as a world power, moreover, to deprive Moscow of the status of even a regional power, to bring the country as smoothly as possible to a change of the political regime and subsequently deprive it of the right to possess nuclear weapons. It is quite obvious that such goals and objectives never become available to the general public and the media.
It is more than likely that it is at this angle, degree and timing that this geopolitical dish is being prepared by the West.
Cunning cooks throw various kinds of spices into the boiling broth of armed confrontation. They then increase the sharpness of the food being prepared, then skillfully reduce it. Then they throw firewood on the fire, then skillfully stop the blazing flame.
It seems stubbornly that the sequence of actions of the collective West is exactly this - in the foreseeable future (the deadlines have most likely already been determined) bringing the dish to final readiness, but exclusively - and this is the main thing - on slow fire.
It should be noted that the management of such processes is very difficult - previously unpredictable situations may arise and a whole squadron of black swans may appear, and events can eventually easily get out of control and continue to develop according to a completely unpredictable scenario.
Nevertheless, according to the calculations of Western analysts, a quick military victory of Ukraine may not lead to the planned collapse of the political regime in Russia, but directly to the opposite result - the rallying of the broad masses of the people around the military-political leadership.
But the skillful prolongation of the armed conflict (along with the increasing sanctions pressure) will inevitably lead to an increase in the hardships and hardships of Russian citizens.
Such conducting of the conflict may well lead to an explosive growth of discontent and unpredictable consequences for the ruling elites. That is, a hypothetical change of power can occur (again, according to the calculations of Western experts) and without any external interference and influence.
Another variant of the collective West's plans and actions, based on a real assessment of the current military-political situation, is not yet visible. It seems that the opinion expressed by Mark Milli is based on these theses.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.Mikhail Khodarenok
