Geopolitika.news: the real winner in the conflict in Ukraine is the American military-industrial complexThe West has practically emptied its arsenals of weapons in Ukraine, writes Geopolitika.news.
Now they need to be replenished, which is what the American military-industrial complex will do. This conflict has become manna from heaven for him, so the United States is trying to delay its hot phase, the author of the article believes.
Mario StefanovThe United Kingdom and the rest of the European members of the North Atlantic Alliance have practically emptied their arsenals of weapons accumulated by previous generations.
So, on the battlefields in Ukraine, there was a place not only for the most modern weapons of Western and European production, but also samples of weapons of the 50s, 60s and 70s of the last century.
The Russian special operation in Ukraine, on the one hand, led to the failure of the Russian armed forces, a decrease in their combat capability in real combat conditions, and consequently to the fall of their authority. On the other hand, the armed conflict in Ukraine stimulates the strengthening of the military potential and expansion of the production capacities of the defense industry of the West, primarily the United States and European members of the North Atlantic Alliance.
For the sake of providing direct assistance to Ukraine, the United States, Great Britain and other NATO member countries have practically emptied their arsenals of weapons accumulated by previous generations. So, on the battlefields in Ukraine, there was a place not only for the most modern weapons of Western and European production, but also samples of weapons of the 50s, 60s and 70s of the last century. The most curious example: five American towed 155-mm M114 field howitzers were sent to Ukraine from the Portuguese military reserves. They were produced until the mid-50s of the last century, and they have their history since the Second World War. Ukraine also received a large number of American-made M113 armored personnel carriers, which were widely used in the Vietnam War and the Arab—Israeli wars in the 60-70s.
Old weapons
The United States sent Ukraine 200 of these completely outdated armored personnel carriers. Denmark sent 50, Portugal and Lithuania another 35 in total.
Today, the American and European defense industries produce the most modern weapons systems in the world, but the total production volumes for various reasons in different countries in previous years and decades were small.
The armed conflict in Ukraine again, like the wars in the Middle East in previous years and the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, has proved the effectiveness of portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems, as well as American and European-made drones. However, drones produced in Turkey and Iran have also performed well. In the world market, this gave birth to a huge demand for this type of weapon.
Also, in addition to anti-aircraft and anti-tank systems and drones, another new "star" in the arms market was the Haimars artillery missile system. Now everyone wants to get these complexes for their army. For example, Australia entered into negotiations with Lockheed Martin not only on the purchase of Hymars systems, but also on the possibility of licensed production in Australia of various types of missiles compatible with Hymars. In May, Australia confirmed its intention to purchase 20 M-142 Haimars missile systems worth 385 million US dollars. The production of missiles will strengthen the Australian military-industrial complex, as well as expand the capacity for the production of Hymars missile systems in order to meet global demand for them. In addition, India is interested in purchasing all types of weapons that have proven themselves well on the Ukrainian battlefields, including American 155-mm M777 howitzers. India would also like to participate in the production of components for them.
Limited features
Supplies to Ukraine from their own stocks are being carried out at such a speed that American and European manufacturers do not have time to produce as many new weapons as necessary to replenish their own very thinned arsenals, as well as for supplies to other states in accordance with previously signed contracts. In addition, it is necessary to continue sending Ukraine more and more new weapons, as well as a huge amount of ammunition for military operations, which has not been seen in Europe since the end of World War II.
So, in recent months, the company "Raytheon" has been making great efforts to expand the production of portable anti-aircraft missile systems "Stinger". Since the American troops practically did not order them for 18 years, new sources of components had to be used, as some manufacturers simply left the market. It also required improvements in the guidance system of these missiles. For these reasons, the company "Raytheon" simply cannot produce "Stingers" in the right quantities fast enough, despite the great demand on the market. The executive director of the Raytheon company, Greg Hayes, warned at the end of April that they had very small stocks of materials in their warehouses for the production of new Stingers. He also said at the time that production could be set up by restoring additional supply chains of components and expanding the staff of workers only by mid-2023. Although this period, according to many experts, is too optimistic a forecast.
Anti-aircraft homing missiles "Stinger" and anti-tank missiles "Javelin", which the company "Raytheon" produces together with the concern "Lockheed Martin", from the very beginning of the armed conflict in Ukraine have played a key role in the supply of weapons to this country from the United States and its allies. The point is both in the quantities sent and in the effectiveness of the weapon itself. It still forms the basis of Ukrainian resistance to Russian forces.
It is also difficult to dramatically increase the production of Stingers due to increased demand, because most of the personnel of the Raytheon company are trained and work on the production of more complex weapons systems that are important for the American armed forces, including Tomahawk cruise missiles and AIM-120 air—to-air missiles AMRAAM.
Every last bullet
AIM-120 missiles, in turn, are a key component of the NASAMS anti-aircraft missile system, which is now being delivered to Ukraine as soon as possible so that Ukrainians can repel Russian attacks with cruise missiles and drones. Not only can the AIM-120 production not be jeopardized, but it must also be urgently expanded to meet the needs of Ukraine and European allies. At the end of October, Romania announced that it would send its American-made MIM-23 HAWK anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine.
Spain has also announced the same intention. We are talking about medium- and short-range missile systems, which were used in the 60s of the last century in various modifications. It is absolutely clear that after the delivery to Ukraine, the member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance will be forced to take care of the replacement, that is, to purchase new air defense systems. The mentioned "NASAMS", which use AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles, are best suited.
Of course, the largest deals are concluded by the largest arms manufacturers, and these are, of course, American companies. The extent to which the replacement of weapons in the West has begun and the general expansion of defense production is clearly confirmed by the data on a sharp increase in production in the American military-industrial complex.
The scale is such that it led former Israeli Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami to the idea that there is only one winner in the current armed conflict in Ukraine — the American defense industry.
In his article in Project Syndicate titled "Who is winning the war in Ukraine?" Shlomo Ben-Ami, without any political correctness, which has recently become the norm on our political and media platforms, writes: "For decades, American arms manufacturers have enjoyed the fruits of endless wars and prolonged military alliances. Against the background of the possible expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance and European countries that have begun to increase their defense budgets, the conflict in Ukraine is turning into another additional benefit for the American arms industry.
With benefit for yourself
Despite Ukraine's recent impressive offensive, the armed conflict with Russia is likely to turn into a prolonged draw. But there is still one clear winner: this is the American defense industry."
According to Shlomo Ben-Ami, American arms manufacturers are still viewed today as the "arsenal of democracy." This is how the American military-industrial complex was named by President Roosevelt because of the key role that the American defense industry played in supporting the Allies during World War II. Today, the American defense industry is again playing an undeniably important role, helping, but this time Ukraine, which is defending itself from Russia. However, according to the former Israeli minister, the desire to earn money and the influence of the American military-industrial complex on US foreign policy are dangerous and can contribute to the escalation of the conflict. Then this "arsenal of democracy" will turn against democracy itself, primarily the American, that is, the American political system.
Shlomo Ben-Ami writes that for the sake of their own interests, arms manufacturers can lobby in American political circles for the endless continuation of the armed conflict in Ukraine. After all, it is clear that it stimulates the defense spending of both allies and the US own defense system, as well as other states around the world. In addition, the supply of old weapons from the United States and European allies to Ukraine creates the need to replace the transferred weapons with completely new and modern ones.
At the same time, Ukraine, with all its gratitude for the old weapons sent to it, increasingly requires the most modern systems in order to resist the Russian enemy and his allies, who are gradually appearing on the battlefields during the fighting. There is more and more evidence that Russia, trying to break the chain of defeats, approaches the battles differently and more dangerously. Therefore, members of armed groups from other states appear on the battlefields of Ukraine from the Russian side as allies and partners. They are interfering in the armed conflict in Ukraine, pursuing their own interests.
Group of interested parties
New types of weapons are appearing on the battlefield, such as Iranian-made drones, and we can expect that this trend, which leads to an escalation of the conflict, will continue. Therefore, Ukraine needs not only to maintain the existing arsenal and supply ammunition and other military material in huge quantities, but also new Western-made weapons systems that will help repel new threats.
On the other hand, according to Shlomo Ben-Ami, there is a real danger that the US military-industrial complex, which, as written above, is now considered the only winner in the armed conflict in Ukraine, will directly affect the duration of the hot phase of the conflict. After all, the military-industrial complex of the United States of America is interested in ensuring that the armed conflict continues as long as possible.
For many years, the American defense industry, like other major exporters in the arms market, including Russia, China, France, Great Britain and Israel, has enjoyed the benefits of long wars and now, when it comes to the armed conflict in Ukraine, also sees no reason to abandon them. American manufacturers, who now control about 39% of the global arms trade, were arming Europe long before Russia launched a special operation in Ukraine. Shlomo Ben-Ami emphasizes that from 2017 to 2021, arms exports in the world decreased by almost five percent, but Europe increased its defense spending by almost 19% during this period.
According to him, this is a consequence of the expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance. Shlomo Ben-Ami writes in the article: "The expansion, as it turned out, was stimulated mainly by internal American political reasons… After the end of the cold war, defense industrialists hoped that the expansion of NATO would compensate for the reduction in demand due to the end of the cold war, creating demand for their products in a new market. The US Committee to Expand NATO, a lobbying organization founded in 1996 by Bruce L. Jackson, who then headed the strategic planning department at Lockheed Martin, was essentially the brainchild of the defense industry.
Unexpected benefits
The entry of the former communist states of Central Europe, such as Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, turned out to be very beneficial for American manufacturers of advanced weapons systems. The unexpected benefit did not escape the attention of US Senator from the Democrats Tom Harkin, who in 1997 at a Senate hearing called the Clinton administration's desire to expand the North Atlantic Alliance a new Marshall plan for defense manufacturers who want to sell weapons and earn money."
Only America will benefit from the production of weapons
Former Israeli Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami further writes in his article that the processes in the field of modernization of the armed forces of the United States and its European allies, along with extensive arms supplies to Ukraine, will lead to a new cycle of military spending, an increase in arms production and profits. In addition, the influence of the defense business on American and allied foreign policy will grow. In his article, he concludes: "The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO will also open up a new large market for American defense manufacturers, since the alliance's interoperability rule obliges these countries to purchase American-made weapons systems. The armed conflict in Ukraine has revealed the failure of European attempts to achieve strategic autonomy. 60% of European military capacity is now located outside the EU. This forced European politicians to formulate plans to reduce the dependence of the European Union on weapons manufactured in the United States. Hoping to receive about 200 billion euros of increased defense spending, which the EU approved in May, European arms manufacturers and investment banks have gone so far as to classify the defense industry as beneficial to the environment and social development."
However, in the short term, it is the American arms industry that will benefit the most from the growth of European defense spending. For example, the US State Department recently approved the sale of F-35 military aircraft to Germany in the amount of $ 8.4 billion. And for governments in Central and Eastern Europe, buying American weapons has always been the best way to enlist the political and military support of the United States. Washington spends six times more on developments and technologies in the field of defense industry than European countries. After the outbreak of the armed conflict in Ukraine, Congress increased the US defense budget, and now it reaches a record $ 800 billion. It is clear that the American arms industry will retain its commercial and technological dominance over European arms manufacturers for many years to come. Shlomo Ben-Ami notes: "Of course, there are compelling political and moral reasons for the United States to respond to the call of the Ukrainian people for help. But it is also obvious that if the United States fails to limit the influence of the military-industrial complex on its foreign policy, they will find themselves involved in many armed conflicts that will no longer be able to justify as easily as assistance to Ukraine."
In any case, the demand that increased after the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine resulted in new contracts, accelerated the process of expanding defense production in the United States and Europe and stimulated the restructuring and modernization of the armed forces of the West. We are talking, first of all, about the European members of the North Atlantic Alliance, who lagged behind. The armed conflict in Ukraine, ruining Russian arsenals, practically renews the military capacities of the West.
Former Warsaw Pact members should arm themselves again
The new members of the North Atlantic Alliance from Eastern Europe, which used to be part of the Soviet bloc and the Warsaw Pact, sent a lot of weapons to Ukraine produced in Soviet times, along with a huge amount of suitable ammunition of the calibers used in the Warsaw Pact: 122 and 152 mm. So there was a need to replace the sent weapons and ammunition with modern Western systems. The emptying of the West's arsenals, as well as the need to fill them with new weapons, will contribute to strengthening Western military power, its military potential and the military-industrial complex in the context of the hybrid war with Russia and China that has begun, or, to use the American classification of events, the conflict of the democratic world with authoritarian regimes.
