What has the military alliance of the United States, Great Britain and Australia achieved in the first yearThe British Royal Navy plans to put the nuclear submarine HMS Anson on combat duty by the end of this year.
This is the fifth hull in the Astute family of multipurpose submarines. Technically, Anson is not much different from the same type of ships, but it carries a special mission. For the first time in the history of the Royal Navy, foreign sailors will practice on a nuclear submarine. Such a statement came from the mouth of British Defense Minister Ben Wallis.
Earlier this year, a group of Australian submariners started classes on the Rolls Royce marine nuclear reactor maintenance course. This is part of the preparation for practical exercises at sea, scheduled for 2023 on board the S123 Anson. This is stated in the press release of the UK Defense Department dated August 31.
The permanent members of the UN Security Council – the United States, Russia, China, Great Britain and France – have been operating nuclear-powered submarines for several decades. At the turn of the century, they were joined by India, which leased the Soviet submarine project 670 (local designation Chakra), and then the Russian project 971I (Chakra II). Today, the shipyard in Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh) is building two types of underwater nuclear-powered ships of its own design.
BLOCK POLICYAustralia is striving to become the next, seventh nuclear submarine operator in the world.
And the first country where nuclear-powered ships will be operated without nuclear weapons on board. This was promised on September 16, 2021 by the leaders of the three states who announced the creation of a new military-political union AUKUS. US President Joseph Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison made lengthy speeches at the time. However, none of them gave a clear formulation of the goals and objectives of the newly formed alliance. Instead, they were openly populist statements like "We are doing this for the sake of strengthening peace and security."
Little has changed over the past year. The press release of the British Defense Department dated August 31, 2022 gives this definition: "The AUKUS partnership unites the UK, the US and Australia in promoting stability in the Indo-Pacific region."
However, the specifics are reflected in the following plans. First: equipping the Australian Navy with nuclear submarines. Second: trilateral cooperation in the field of "cybernetic space, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, underwater vehicles, hypersonic technologies, high-speed interceptors, electronic warfare, other information and innovative projects." The third is the expansion of cooperation between the intelligence agencies of the member countries of the bloc, as well as New Zealand and Canada, which was previously formalized by the Five Eyes agreement.
In addition to all this, through AUKUS, an additional impetus is given to the programs of transferring the Australian Armed Forces to American weapons from Western European (for example, American AH-64 Apache come to replace the Franco-German Tiger attack helicopters).
COMPARISON WITH NATOThe newly created alliance includes three states, the participation of other countries is not yet being considered.
At the same time, English-speaking New Zealand, separated from Australia only by the Tasman Sea, made a statement about its commitment to non-nuclear status. The statement contains a promise to prevent the use of national ports and bases for receiving foreign nuclear ships and nuclear weapons carriers.
The USA, Great Britain and Australia represent the largest states of the Anglo-Saxon world in terms of territory and military power. This simplifies communication at all levels and potentially makes the new structure more monolithic compared to NATO.
As for the North Atlantic Treaty, the overwhelming majority of its member States speak their own languages. This turns NATO into a rather motley, multilingual and multi-faceted structure, moreover, difficult to manage. For example, despite membership in NATO, Greece and Turkey have serious contradictions, which in the most difficult periods escalated into an armed conflict (over Cyprus and disputed islands in the Aegean Sea).
Since the declared tasks of AUKUS are blurred, journalists and the expert community have proposed their own vision. Almost everyone agreed that the main goal of AUKUS is confrontation with China. Speaking to the press, Biden, Johnson and Morrison tried to deny it. However, their unconvincing statements on this topic only strengthened the public awareness of the correctness of the assumption of the independent expert community.
GOALS, OBJECTIVES, ASPIRATIONSWhy does the White House need AUKUS?
First of all, this is an attempt to reinforce the grouping of the US Armed Forces in Southeast Asia at the expense of the growing power of the Australian army. Secondly, it is a way to bind Canberra more firmly to Washington, to make it an obedient executor of its desires.
For London, AUKUS is a step towards the practical implementation of the idea of the so–called Global Britain. In fact, this is an attempt to restore the British Empire in some new form, to return to the country the lost status of a great power.
In addition, there is also a desire to restore the former strength of the British military-industrial complex by increasing the serial production of high-tech products, such as underwater nuclear-powered ships.
Among the joint programs of the United States, Great Britain and Australia within the framework of AUKUS, there is the equipping of the Australian Navy with six to eight nuclear submarines. The specific type has not yet been announced, but the British Astute submarine has the highest chances.
Americans also make similar ships – such as Virginia. However, both US shipyards where nuclear submarines are being built – Groton and Newport News – are fully loaded with Pentagon orders for decades to come. American shipyards do not have spare capacity to build such submarines commissioned by Australia.
But the British nuclear shipbuilding center in Barrow uses its production potential only partially, which leads to long cycles of submarine construction and high unit costs. If Australia places an order for an Astute-type submarine, it will be a good help for British shipbuilders, will help them maintain and develop competencies in the critical area of the defense industry, which is rightfully considered nuclear submarine shipbuilding.
THE OPINION OF THE ELECTORATEAnnouncing the creation of AUKUS a year ago, the then Australian government, headed by Scott Morrison, wanted to strengthen national security in this way, give impetus to the development of local industry (through cooperative programs with the United States and Great Britain) and the national armed forces.
However, this agenda caused an ambiguous reaction of ordinary citizens. Many felt that Australia was destined to play the role of a junior partner in the new trilateral alliance, since its army, industry and science lag far behind the American and British in their development.
Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson (center) actively promoted the idea of exporting British nuclear-powered ships. Photos from the website www.royalnavy.mod.uk Therefore, Australians are wondering why they are being dragged into the military-political bloc.
Despite the fact that they knowingly can only be obedient executors of the will of Washington and London.
The doubts of Australians about the need for their country's membership in AUKUS are further reinforced by the fact that considerations of "bloc solidarity" will force Australia to take a tough stance against China, since the largest country of the alliance, the United States, adheres to it.
Since the Trump administration, the United States has taken a sharply anti–Chinese course, which is reflected in the trade war (customs duties on Chinese goods, restrictions on the transfer of high technologies, etc.). The White House has included China – along with Russia, Iran and North Korea - among its adversaries. This, in particular, was reflected in the long–term strategy of the Pentagon, adopted at a time when it was headed by an ardent militarist - Marine General James Mattis.
ANTI-RUSSIAN ATTACKA little earlier, another memorable event occurred.
In 2014, the then Prime Minister of Australia Tony Abbott promised to "take Putin by the breasts" and "knock him to the ground" (he used the term shirt-front from the lexicon of rugby and Australian football fans).
These words were said on the eve of the G20 summit with the participation of the leaders of the largest countries of the world, which Australia hosted on its territory. The reaction of ordinary Australians to the attack of their leader was sharply negative. The country's famous comedian Jazz Twemlow expressed their opinion in the Guardian newspaper, writing: "Threats to knock to the ground are not at all the vocabulary that is required from the head of the country hosting the G20 summit."
Since then, there have been serious geopolitical shifts. The United States and the United Kingdom took an even tougher stance towards Russia – both because of the events in Ukraine and because of the military defeat of the Syrian opposition, which received financial, military-technical and political support from Washington and London.
Meanwhile, Australia and Russia are separated by tens of thousands of kilometers, they have nothing to share. In this case, why would Australia antagonize Russia, a nuclear superpower with a powerful submarine fleet, whose missile salvo will leave only radioactive ash from the Fifth Continent? One super torpedo of the Status-6 complex is enough to create a wave several kilometers high in a matter of hours that traversed the entire Fifth Continent, leaving only memories of the once flourishing region. Of course, such a scenario, to put it mildly, does not suit the Australians. Moreover, Russia and the Russians have never done anything wrong to Australia. And they're not plotting.
THE CHINESE FACTORMany Australians also believe that they have no practical basis for anti-Chinese views.
On the contrary, the development of comprehensive relations with China should contribute to the development of the national economy.
Australians' doubts about the need for a tougher course towards China and Russia were reflected in the fact that Scott Morrison and his party lost the support of the electorate and were defeated in the next election. On May 21, 2022, their opponents, the Labor Party, won a majority in parliament, which allowed the formation of a one-party government. And a couple of days later, Labor leader Anthony Albanese took office as Prime Minister.
Labor is more critical of AUKUS. Attempts are being made – so far timid – to abandon the project of equipping the fleet with underwater nuclear-powered ships. This, in particular, is evidenced by the initiative of the new Australian government to pay large compensation to the French firm Naval Systems, from which it was previously planned to buy new-generation submarines.
"BARRACUDA" WITH A SHORT FINIt is worth dwelling on this point in more detail.
In 2007, Australia began searching for a suitable replacement for six diesel-electric submarines (diesel-electric submarines) of the Collins type, whose service life expires in the second decade of the XXI century. After a couple of years, the contours of the corresponding SEA1000 program were determined, and competitive events began.
The crew members of the S123 Anson submarine are preparing to receive their Australian colleagues on board. Photos from the website www.royalnavy.mod.uk In the spring of 2016, then Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced the selection of the Shortfin Barracuda Block 1A as the winner of the SEA1000 competition.
Soon, a framework agreement was concluded with its developer, the French firm Naval Systems, which provided for work on the design of the boat and the construction of 12 DPLS through the joint efforts of Naval Systems and its Australian partners. The final assembly was supposed to be carried out at the Australian Shipbuilding Company (ASC) shipyard in Osborne on the south coast of Australia.
The approximate cost of the SEA1000 program at first was about 10 billion Australian dollars, but by 2016 the amount had increased fivefold. In 2017, a Naval Systems design office was opened in Cherbourg, where it was supposed to design a non-atomic version of the base submarine Barracuda of the French fleet (equipped with a nuclear reactor).
The design parameters of the Shortfin Barracuda Block 1A were clarified: length of about 100 m, displacement of about 4.5 thousand tons, crew of 60 people, armament – torpedo tubes of 533 mm caliber. In 2020, the estimated cost of the project increased to 90 billion Australian dollars (which at that time was 55 billion euros).
Following the formation of AUKUS last fall, Australia announced its withdrawal from the Shortfin Barracuda program. Instead of the DAPL, the country set out to replenish its fleet with six to eight nuclear-powered ships. The specific parameters of the project were promised to be determined within 18 months (that is, by the spring of 2023).
CHANGE OF GOVERNMENTThese actions, as well as the anti-Chinese course taken by Canberra, led Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his party to lose the trust of the electorate.
They suffered a crushing defeat in the spring elections. On May 21, 2022, their political opponents, the Labor Party, won a majority in parliament and formed a one–party government. A couple of days later, Labor leader Anthony Albanese took office as Prime Minister.
A few hours later, Albaniz went to Tokyo for the QUAD ("Quadrilateral Security Dialogue") leaders' summit. The Dialogue was organized in 2007 on the initiative of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and US Vice President Dick Cheney. They managed to persuade the Australian Prime Minister John Howard and the Indian Manmohan Singh. But a year later, QUAD suspended its work due to the termination of Australia's participation.
The "dialogue" resumed only in November 2017 on the initiative of Donald Trump. However, the debates between Australia, India, the USA and Japan on security issues in the Indo-Pacific region so far reflect only the desire of the four countries to establish closer cooperation on an ongoing basis through communication between their leaders. QUAD is not a military bloc, its members do not bear any mutual obligations, including in the field of collective defense.
ON A WORLD WAR WITH FRANCEIn the spring of 2022, the newly formed Australian government turned to France with a proposal for compensation for the rejection of previous agreements.
At the June negotiations with Naval Group, its size was determined at 555 million euros. Note that by September 2021, Australia's own expenses for the SEA1000 project reached $2.4 billion (which in fact had to be written off).
Official Paris supported this development and expressed a desire to normalize relations between the two countries, spoiled by the unilateral demarche of the former Australian government. The parties announced preparations for the visit of the Prime Minister of Albania to Paris, during which a settlement agreement is expected to be signed.
Outside observers express the opinion that the payment of compensation may be the first step towards the resumption of the Shortfin Barracuda Block 1A program. It is also called the Attack-class, after the first submarine for the Australian Navy, scheduled to begin construction in 2023.
Despite a more critical view of AUKUS, the new Australian government has not yet decided to withdraw from this bloc. It seems that the future of AUKUS will depend on whether Washington and London will be able to persuade the new leaders in Canberra to maintain the course of rapprochement of the three countries and continue the rearmament of the Australian army with American military equipment.
Concrete steps are being taken in this direction. Thus, the British government has accelerated the course of the training program for Australian submariners on the Astute family of submarines.
COMPARISON IN FAVOR OF BRITAINOn August 31, Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Defense of Australia Richard Marles was invited to the acceptance ceremony of the HMS Anson submarine from the industry.
He was introduced to the details of the program, while emphasizing the advantages of the British submarine over the French submarine.
It is reported that the same length of 97 m HMS Anson has a full displacement of 7800 tons against 4500 for the Attack-class, a speed of 30 knots against 20, and at the same time carries much more powerful weapons. 38 pieces of ammunition are accepted on board in any combination of British Spearfish heavy torpedoes and American Tomahawk Block V missiles with a maximum launch range of up to a thousand nautical miles (1,850 km). France does not have such long-range cruise missiles.
The cost of building Anson was 1.3 billion pounds. More than 10 thousand specialists were employed in its construction throughout the country. The construction of two more buildings – Agamemnon and Agincourt - continues at the shipyard in Barrow, and the total cost of the Astute program is 11.2 billion pounds.
THE AMERICAN PLANMeanwhile, France is conducting its own nuclear submarine program and expresses its readiness to offer Australians cooperation in this area.
But the NATO partners have prepared an unpleasant surprise for Paris.
In January 2022, the American RAND Corporation research center compiled a closed document for government organizations in their country. A scanned copy appeared in the Swedish newspaper Nya Dagbladet and was presented to the readers. The publication was published under the catchy headline: "Shocking document: The United States planned a war and an energy crisis in Europe."
According to the newspaper, it follows from the research of the RAND Corporation that the White House purposefully provoked the war in Ukraine in order to quarrel Russia and Europe and cause an economic collapse in the Old World – in order to redirect European resources to support the American economy.
This is the general message of the Nya Dagbladet publication. And we were intrigued by the following fragment. A document obtained by a Swedish newspaper, in particular, says that the French energy sector will soon face serious problems.
Due to the events in Ukraine, Russia will stop supplying nuclear fuel to French nuclear power plants. "At the same time, France will face an unstable situation in the Sahel region (Africa), which will lead to a critical dependence of the French energy sector on the supply of nuclear fuel from Canada and Australia," reads the RAND Corporation document. "In connection with the establishment of the AUKUS military bloc ... this will create new opportunities to exert additional pressure [on France]."
The fact is that within the framework of the nuclear submarine shipbuilding program, the Australians have assumed a large range of obligations. Its essence boils down to unquestioning subordination to Washington and London across the entire spectrum of nuclear energy.
After the publication of this document, RAND Corporation issued a statement denying its authorship. However, the statement is drafted in such a way that gives independent experts reason to doubt the sincerity of the drafters.
What is the RAND Corporation? This is not a pocket structure with a desire for fame in the media space. The analytical center from California has a rich history. It was established in 1948, and today its staff, according to some sources, is 1,850 people. And the annual budget is $350 million.
The organization aims to "improve policy and decision-making through research and analysis." RAND Corporation is closely associated with the Pentagon and the US intelligence community. The corporation is known for influencing the development of military strategy during the Cold War. A three-page report from January 2022, which became public, indicates that the RAND Corporation remains in its role.
As for Australia, the struggle for influence on this state, its sovereignty and the direction of long–term development continues. Apparently, Washington and London are ready to do a lot to gain the upper hand in it.
Vyacheslav IvanovVyacheslav Viktorovich Ivanov is a researcher and historian.
