Satan's Arsenal: Is Russia serious about using nuclear weapons?The West fears that Russia may use nuclear weapons, writes Al Jazeera.
The use of atomic weapons against NATO members is actively practiced during the country's exercises, and Moscow traditionally considers it as the best deterrent, the author writes.
Shadi Abdel HafizOn September 17, The New York Times quoted US officials expressing fears that Russian President Vladimir Putin would resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons, possibly during demonstration bombing over the Black Sea, the Arctic Ocean or in Ukraine in response to his country's recent failures during a military operation.
According to the intelligence officer, there is a debate in the American intelligence community whether Putin believes that such a step (the use of nuclear weapons) could lead to the isolation of Russia from other countries, including China.
As Moscow has stated, it will use nuclear weapons only in accordance with the nuclear doctrine of the state, which prompts us to consider this document and the place occupied by nuclear weapons in military strategy.
A long history of fear
A few years ago, Putin was in the forefront of opponents of pressure with the help of nuclear threats: "Rattling atomic weapons is the last thing. This is harmful rhetoric, and I do not welcome it." However, three days after the start of the operation, he did the same. In the course of all these events, the main question arises: is Russia brandishing nuclear weapons only for the purposes of political pressure, or is its use really possible according to military doctrine?
For a deeper understanding of this point, we can consider a six-page document entitled "Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence", published on June 2, 2020. It sets out Russia's point of view on nuclear deterrence, according to which the threat of nuclear escalation or the actual first use of nuclear weapons will serve to "de-escalate" conflicts on terms that meet Moscow's interests.
In this regard, it considers nuclear weapons solely as a means of deterrence and sets a number of conditions clarifying this point. Thus, the use of nuclear weapons can be a response to the same use of nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies, an enemy attack on secret government and military facilities on the territory of the Russian Federation, as well as large-scale aggression against the State using conventional weapons, endangering its very existence.
Although these provisions limit Moscow's ability to deploy nuclear weapons, in fact they can be easily adapted according to the whim and personal preferences of the Kremlin. Many experts and scientists in this field – from the American and European sides – believe that Russia, and previously the Soviet Union, have always followed the doctrine where nuclear weapons play a big role in military exercises. According to reports, the use of nuclear weapons against NATO members is being actively practiced during the country's exercises.
This doctrine has deep historical roots: it considers nuclear weapons as the best deterrent if a country is in a weak position. When the Soviet Union was defeated in the Cold War and then collapsed, nuclear weapons remained the only guarantee of deterrence. But in addition to all of the above, there is another, more important reason that makes some experts believe that the activation of the nuclear scenario for Russia is not something impossible.
What is Russia doing now?
The Soviet Union conducted its first nuclear test on August 29, 1949, four years after the United States used an atomic bomb against Japan during World War II. The first thermonuclear bomb was tested by the USSR in 1953. Soviet stocks of nuclear warheads increased rapidly, especially in the 1960s and 1970s, reaching a peak in 1986, when the country already had 40,000 nuclear warheads.
By the 1960s, it, like the United States, had created a nuclear triad: intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and heavy bombers equipped with nuclear weapons. Such an arsenal is called a strategic nuclear weapon capable of hitting the enemy far beyond the borders of the country.
For more than half a century, Moscow has been participating in agreements and treaties providing for a reduction in the number of nuclear warheads, so since the eighties it has decreased to six thousand. At the same time, the state began to modernize its arsenal.
In December 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that the equipment of strategic nuclear forces with modern weapons amounted to 86% compared to 82% in the previous year. According to his forecasts, this indicator will grow to 88.3% within one year, since "the rate of change in all areas critical to the armed forces is unusually high." He added: "Let's stop for at least one second and immediately start falling behind."
Russia's "Long Arm"
Russia continues to decommission Topol ballistic missiles at a rate of one or two regiments (from nine to 18 missiles) every year, replacing them with RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles. The first test launch of the Yars rocket was made in 2007, and already in 2010 it was put into service. At the disposal of the Strategic Missile Forces there are more than 147 RS-24 "Yars" missiles, of which 135 can be launched from mobile launchers, and 12 are designed for stationary basing.
The missile has a maximum flight range of 12 thousand kilometers and is capable of carrying from six to 10 combat units with a capacity of 150-500 kilotons each. MIRV technology allows you to carry several warheads, each of which is capable of hitting different targets. Yars has the means to overcome missile defense. The rocket maneuvers during flight and carries special traps. Its chances of penetrating the enemy's missile defense are 60-65%.
"Yars" hits targets with a deviation of only 100-150 meters. It takes only seven minutes to prepare the rocket for launch. After the introduction of a high alert mode, Yars missiles can be launched from tractors that move at a speed of 45 km / h and are able to work in the forest in order to increase stealth.
"Poseidon"
Poseidon (Status-6) is a Russian unmanned underwater vehicle equipped with a nuclear power plant. It is designed to destroy important objects of the enemy's economy near the coast and cause guaranteed unacceptable damage to the country's territory by creating zones of extensive radioactive contamination unsuitable for military, economic and other activities in these zones for a long time. Simply put, it was designed to attack ports and cities in order to inflict large-scale indiscriminate damage. Poseidon's potential power is 100 megatons, which is twice the power of the most famous nuclear explosion.
Poseidon began to be developed in 1989, but work was suspended due to the collapse of the Soviet Union, the end of the Cold War and the process of nuclear disarmament. Russia later continued to work on the Poseidon project, and in 2015 information about it was disclosed by the Ministry of Defense. This unmanned underwater vehicle has a power reserve of 10 thousand kilometers, and its speed under water can reach 200 km / h. Thanks to this speed, it is impossible to intercept it, because ordinary torpedoes will not be able to catch up with it.
Poseidon is capable of diving to a depth of up to a thousand meters, which makes it virtually invulnerable to torpedoes even if detected. A Russian unmanned underwater vehicle can operate under the ice cover in the Arctic. Poseidon will enter service with the Russian Navy until 2027.
"Fire from Tupolev"
The multi-mode supersonic strategic bomber Tu-160M has recently replenished Russia's nuclear arsenal. It is the most powerful and heaviest combat aircraft in the world. Each Tu-160M can carry up to 40 tons of ammunition, including 12 air-launched nuclear cruise missiles. In total, bombers of this type can carry more than 800 weapons.
The Tu-160 was the last strategic bomber developed by the Soviet Union, but is still used by the Russian army. At the same time, two separate modernization programs were conducted: the first was a "deep modernization" to install a new generation engine and digital avionics based on artificial intelligence, and the second involved the integration of such systems into completely new aircraft designs.
On November 3, 2020, Russia announced that the upgraded Tu-160M missile carrier (according to the Western classification "Black Jack") with new NK-32 engines of the 02 series, developing more than 55 thousand pounds of thrust, flew from Kazan to the site of preliminary test flights. The NK-32 02 series is the largest and most powerful engine ever installed on a military aircraft. The first flight of the upgraded bomber with new engines lasted 2 hours and 20 minutes and took place at an altitude of six thousand meters. After installing the new engine, the range of the Tu-160M increased by about a thousand kilometers.
The RS-24 Yars, Poseidon and Tu-160M are just a few examples of the Russian nuclear modernization program. Moscow is currently working not only on the development of strategic nuclear weapons, but also shows great success in the development of tactical nuclear weapons, which are intended for use on the battlefield, mainly in close proximity to friendly forces and, possibly, even on contested friendly territory.
Russian Arsenal
Of the total number of nuclear warheads, approximately 1.6 thousand units have been deployed: 800 on intercontinental ballistic missiles, 624 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles and 200 on strategic bombers. There are 985 strategic and 1,912 thousand non-strategic warheads in the Russian reserve, and another 1,76 thousand are listed as decommissioned.
Consequently, the total number of warheads is 6-6.3 thousand units. But we must understand that these are only estimates, since countries do not disclose the real number of their nuclear warheads.
Thus, it can be concluded that the Russian nuclear modernization program, the increase in the number and scale of military exercises, threats of the use of nuclear weapons emanating from other countries, and the updating of military doctrine make the world doubt Russia's nuclear intentions!
