NATO relies on artificial intelligence
Hammer as a symbol of obedience. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the meeting of the heads of state and government of the alliance countries in Madrid. Photos from the website www.nato.int
At the meeting of the heads of State and Government of NATO countries in Madrid on June 29, 2022, a new strategic concept (SC-22) was approved, which sets out the priorities, tasks and approaches of the bloc for the next decade.
The concept describes the security environment faced by the bloc and formulates three main tasks: deterrence and defense; crisis prevention and management; and joint security.
THE GROWTH OF AGGRESSION
Trying to justify the build-up of aggressiveness of the supposedly "defensive alliance", SK-22 contains references to new factors that were not discussed in previous concepts:
the strengthening of Russia, the growth of China's power, the emergence of new centers of power (Iran);
Shifting the main US efforts to the Asia-Pacific region (APR);
internal troubles in the USA;
the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis in Europe;
aggravation of political fanaticism and religious fundamentalism in the world;
The "dark side" of globalization: international terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction;
socio-economic problems in Africa and the Middle East, climate change, generating competition for resources and mass migration;
the weakening of nation states and the influence on the security sphere of organizations such as the UN, OSCE, NATO and the European Union.
It is argued that all these factors form a spectrum of threats of a new type – "hybrid threats", the counteraction of which requires a revision of the alliance's strategies and the united efforts of the United States, NATO and the EU.
There are new provisions in the UK-22, the purpose of which is to justify the buildup of the bloc's military presence in Europe, the provision of military–technical assistance to Ukrainian nationalists, the supply of weapons to them, which has already begun to spread around the world (with the UK's hypocritical regret about the "erosion of arms control"), the transfer of intelligence information to Kiev. NATO's ambitions are growing, the bloc is becoming an instrument of US global dominance.
The position of NATO in relations with Russia has radically changed, which is called the "most serious and direct threat" to the security of allies. Reasons: the annexation of Crimea and a special military operation as the most important catalyst for changes in the world order.
For the first time, China and the challenges that Beijing poses to the security, interests and values of its allies are being considered. It is argued that "the deepening of the strategic partnership between the PRC and the Russian Federation, their mutually reinforcing attempts to undermine the rules-based international order contradict our values and interests."
The authors of the notorious "rules", which resemble criminal "concepts", remain outside the brackets. In the light of such concepts, the expansion of NATO and the allies' attempts to undermine Russia's national security are proposed to be perceived as an indisputable good.
EFFICIENCY OF MILITARY DECISIONS
SK-22 and the discussions preceding it show that there are disagreements within the bloc, but they are not so strong as to shake the united position dictated by the United States. With an obvious anti-American front, supporters of a more moderate line are forced to line up in Washington's wake on almost all problems of international politics.
Under the pressure of the Americans, a new NATO decision-making mechanism is being developed, a departure from consensus towards a "qualified majority". In this case, the voices of France, Germany, Italy and other states speaking from moderate positions will be drowned in the noisy chorus of pro-American supporters.
It is believed that Sweden and Finland, if accepted into the alliance, will join the ranks of these supporters. The powers of the NATO Secretary General have been strengthened, he has funds for direct financing of operational activities of the alliance – exercises, the transfer of units, crisis management. This creates an autonomous NATO management structure.
MILITARY TECHNOSPHERE
Attention should be paid to the tilt of NATO policy towards the development and adoption of new and revolutionary technologies.
In SK-22, the stake on nuclear weapons remains. "NATO's strategic nuclear forces, especially the United States, are the highest guarantee of NATO's security. The independent strategic nuclear forces of Great Britain and France play their own deterrent role and make a significant contribution to the overall security of the alliance."
It is argued that NATO is facing a number of problems that arise as a result of the introduction of new and revolutionary technologies. An important place is given to the development of technologies that have military applications and are designed to defeat the enemy at the expense of technological superiority.
Innovations include research and development in the following areas:
• Countering hybrid threats in the gray zone, where state and non-state actors use hybrid tactics: disinformation, cyber attacks, special operations forces. Attention to the gray zone is dictated by the ideas of American President Biden, set out in the "Interim Instructions on the National Security Strategy".
• Quantum technologies are identified as one of the key developments under the auspices of NATO. The prospect of their military use for secure communication lines and the transmission of sensitive information promises a lot. It is necessary to completely upgrade the digital infrastructure using "quantum" cryptography, protected from quantum and classical computers. The military is attracted by the capabilities of quantum sensing to detect submarines and stealth aircraft, for navigation and synchronization without the use of external systems such as GPS. A quantum algorithm for decrypting digital communications was developed in 1994 and is waiting for the appearance of a quantum computer capable of using it.
• The "Strategy in the Field of Artificial Intelligence (AI)" has been adopted as a locomotive for the development of the NATO military technosphere. An AI-based algorithm can be used for pattern recognition, for detecting objects in images (for example, identifying aircraft, missile launchers, armored vehicles, etc.) obtained by intelligence means. Taking into account the capabilities of AI, proposals have been developed to counter Russian missile systems capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
• Cyberspace has been announced as a new operational environment, and a guide on options for strategic response to cyberactivity has been released. The strategic importance of cyber threats is also noted by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu: "The scale of threats in the field of cybersecurity is approaching the concept of "weapons of mass destruction" – even without missiles and aircraft, it is possible to cause serious damage to the infrastructure of any metropolis through computer attacks."
• Cognitive warfare (CB) is conducted with the widespread use of social networks and mobile devices. The human mind becomes a battlefield. The goal is to change not only what people think, but also how they think and act. KV forms individual and group beliefs and behavior. In an extreme form, KV can split the whole society, deprive it of the collective will to resist.
• Cognitive biotechnology (CBT) is aimed at improving the quality and speed of thinking, perception, coordination. With the help of CBT, a person's ability to tolerate overload or act in an unfavorable environment, limited by the limits of his physiology, can be expanded and strengthened.
NATO has adjusted the structure of its International Headquarters by establishing new units, such as the Hybrid Challenges and Energy Security Section in the New NATO Security Challenges Division.
DIGITALIZATION
The task of transforming the NATO military technosphere is aimed at achieving a three-pronged goal by improving the ability to assess the situation and make operational decisions on coordinated actions in rapidly changing situations.
"To understand better" means to have full and collective situational awareness, to make full use of NATO's potential in shaping the security environment and to win the battle for opportunities.
"Solve faster" means to speed up and improve the decision–making process, especially the military.
"Being stronger together" means maximizing the coherence of NATO's actions, which is necessary when challenges are multifaceted and often hidden. From an operational point of view, it is the ability to integrate actions in a multi-sphere environment.
The two main priorities for achieving this are:
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digital transformation that allows you to fully use your own databases and creates opportunities to maximize your potential;
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prompt delivery of information on new forces and means, increasing the flexibility of developing and implementing solutions, establishing operational monitoring of the situation and bringing intelligence information to the governing authorities.
Priorities are achieved by integrating three factors:
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factors of innovation that determine NATO's views on capacity development;
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the factor of "cooperation and cooperation" within the bloc and between the bloc and partners in the interests of effective relations between the political leadership and military teams;
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the factor of human capital, personnel as the most valuable resource of NATO.
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The coordination of innovation priorities is designed to ensure that NATO adapts to new threats through new technologies, space and cyberspace. What should lay the foundation for realizing the advantages of the alliance in two main areas:
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elimination of fragmentation of researchers, academia, and other organizations that build activities based on innovative ideas or new technologies (startups), creation of a single management center in the field of innovation;
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realization of the ability to implement and scale new technologies as they are ready. This means flexible investment and other organizations in the public and private sectors.
Thus, the task is to develop new technologies, from AI to autonomous systems, in order to ensure technological superiority in an environment where conflicts will be fought "not only with bullets and bombs, but also with bytes and big data." At the same time, it is important to develop breakthrough dual-use innovations, which, in addition to military use, will ensure their commercialization in the civilian sector.
At the NATO summit in London in 2019, NATO identified seven areas of new and potentially disruptive technological innovation that will "have a major impact on the development of future military capabilities." These are big data, AI, autonomous weapons, space, hypersound, quantum and biotechnology.
To guide and coordinate the development and implementation of innovations, it was decided to create the "NATO Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic" (DIANA). It is expected that this fund will help NATO maintain its technological advantages by providing investments of 1 billion euros in the development of dual-use technologies. It will also ensure and simplify closer and trusting cooperation with private companies developing the latest technologies.
ROBOT WAR
Many studies in the United States and NATO countries touch on the topic of the impact of new technologies on the international security system. Forecasts are made that military actions using self-controlled systems, including combat robots and automated weapons using AI, make possible a "robot war" that will play a transformative role in future military conflicts.
The instruments of such a war will be unmanned vehicles, self-controlled weapons, space vehicles, nanotechnology, biological and biochemical weapons, layer-by-layer printing technologies, renewable energy sources, devices capable of optimizing health and performance under extreme stress, social networks as a tool of cognitive warfare for consciousness.
It should be borne in mind that the availability of these innovations and the unregulated nature of their use create conditions for the diffusion of military power, which will allow non-State actors to inflict large-scale damage. Until recently, only Governments and coalitions of States had such an opportunity.
All this creates difficult-to-predict dynamics of the development of military conflicts and requires the adoption of serious, often non-standard decisions in the military and military-technical fields in the interests of ensuring Russia's national security.
Alexander Bartosh
Alexander Alexandrovich Bartosh is a corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences.
