The Third World War did not happen – the plane with the speaker of the American Parliament Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei. Beijing threatened to prevent this visit, but did not take any measures to prevent it. However, China has already promised a "powerful and strong" US response to Pelosi's visit. The deterioration of relations will also lead to the fact that from now on Beijing will not listen to America's opinion regarding Russia.
The Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress Nancy Pelosi – whose persistent desire to visit unrecognized Taiwan put Washington and Beijing on the verge of a direct military conflict – arrived safely in the capital of Taipei. On Tuesday, an American Boeing C-40C (a military version of the Boeing 737) with Pelosi on board landed at Taipei Songshan Airport. "The visit of our delegation to Taiwan demonstrates America's unwavering commitment to support the dynamically developing Taiwanese democracy," the Speaker of the House of Representatives said in a statement. At the same time, there were reports that the Taiwanese police broke up a protest rally against the arrival of a third US person.
"In 15 minutes we will see who is the "great power": the United States or China," shortly before Pelosi's successful landing, the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov noted in his Telegram channel. After the American plane finally landed in Taipei, the Chinese authorities (who consider Taiwan a rebellious part of the PRC and threatened a military response if Pelosi arrived) limited themselves to expressing strong condemnation of the violation of the sovereignty of the PRC.
"The very fact that the Chinese could not force the Americans to abandon this provocation means a diplomatic defeat of the Celestial Empire," Timofey Bordachev, program director of the Valdai Club, told the newspaper VIEW. It should also be noted that Pelosi herself stressed in her statement that her visit (which was a direct insult to Beijing) "in no way contradicts the policy of the United States." Indeed, the demarche of the 82-year-old head of the House of Representatives can be regarded as an expression of the common position of the ruling Democratic Party.
"In 1997, the Speaker of the same House of Representatives, Newt Gingrich, visited Taiwan. But he was a Republican and he staged this action then to annoy Democratic President Bill Clinton. Now it's another matter: Pelosi belongs to the same party as President Joe Biden," explained the expert–Americanist Boris Mezhuyev. "At the official level, the American one–China policy will not change, but in general, both Republicans and Democrats - both parties – are aimed at Taiwan's independence, at recognizing its diplomatic subjectivity."
At the same time, it should be recognized: until the very last moment, the first visit of the head of the House of Representatives since 1997 remained in question. The Taiwanese part of Pelosi's East Asian tour (which began in Singapore and will end in Japan, despite the fact that Taiwan was not indicated in the plans) resembled a combat operation, which was watched live by millions of people around the world. The Flightradar portal, which tracks the movement of aircraft, has "fallen" more than once during this time.
Boeing C-40C with the call sign SPAR19 (until recently it was unclear whether Pelosi was flying on it) left the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur on Monday, flew over the islands of Borneo and Sulawesi, and then turned north. On Tuesday, at about 17.00 Moscow time, the aircraft entered the Taiwan air defense zone from the east, from the Pacific Ocean. Earlier, eight F-15 fighter jets and five US Air Force tanker aircraft were lifted from the American base in Okinawa, Japanese NHK reported. The Taiwanese "Ziyu Shibao" reported: the airport of the capital of the island removed camouflage covers from anti-aircraft guns with a caliber of 35 mm deployed next to the runway.
Meanwhile, Beijing has closed the airspace of the Taiwan Strait to civilian aircraft. Su-35 fighters of the PLA Air Force cruised in the airspace over the Strait, China Central Television reported. Taiwanese media reported that two aircraft carriers of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLA) were going to sea and heading to the strait area. According to the Taipei newspaper "Zhongguo Shibao", the aircraft carriers of the Chinese navy "Liaoning" (former Soviet aircraft carrier "Varyag") and "Shandong" came respectively from the north – from the port of Qingdao and from the south – from the port of Sanya on Hainan Island. Earlier, an American aircraft carrier strike group led by the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan moved to the area of Taiwan.
The Chinese show of force was not limited to the passage of warships. The units of the PLA's Southern Military District, whose area of responsibility includes the South China Sea, were put on high alert, the Financial Times of London reported, citing military officials in Beijing and Taipei. Recall that at the narrowest point of the PRC and the island of Taiwan are separated by only 81 kilometers.
Two dozen launchers of the Hongqi-22 (Red Banner–22) air defense systems have been deployed in the coastal areas of the Chinese province of Fujian, which is closest to Taiwan. These are analogues of the Russian S-300, designed to destroy airplanes, helicopters and unmanned vehicles. The affected area of the system is up to 170 kilometers.
In the same place, in Fujian province, an echelon with launchers of medium-range ballistic missiles "Dongfeng-16" (DF-16) was spotted, Rossiyskaya Gazeta reports. The flight range of this rocket is from 800 to a thousand kilometers. Theoretically, three maneuvering DF-16 warheads can carry both high-explosive and nuclear and thermonuclear charges. As previously reported by the Zvezda TV channel, according to military experts, the DF-16 pose a special threat to Taiwan. Dongfeng-16 is capable of breaking through the island's missile defense, which is provided by the American MIM-104 Patriot PAC-3 complexes.
As Alexander Lukin, a researcher at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, notes, if China used all the mentioned weapons to strike Taiwan, it would mean a retaliatory American strike against China and the beginning of a big war. Even before Pelosi landed, one could have expected that – as in the case of Newton Gingrich's visit in 1997 – Beijing would now limit itself only to verbal statements addressed to the United States, the Sinologist expert points out.
"It was clear in advance that no one would shoot down the plane, arrange a sudden war against the island, too," Bordachev points out. But, as the expert notes, having failed to prevent the arrival of Pelosi, Beijing suffered a diplomatic defeat. "In the 1970s, when the United States established diplomatic relations with China, it pledged not to maintain similar relations with Taiwan," Lukin recalls.
Now there is direct support for Taipei from the representative of the ruling Democratic Party in Washington, which can also be regarded as the position of the Joe Biden administration.
If the Chinese had somehow managed to scare the plane with Pelosi away from the island, America would have expected reputational losses - it would have become clear that Washington had succumbed to Beijing's blackmail, Mezhuyev notes. "But Pelosi landed safely – and this is a slap in the face for China. Chinese President Xi Jinping will not substitute the second cheek," the American expert believes. Mezhuyev predicts:
"I think from now on, the military machine aimed at Taiwan will be steadily preparing. A forceful action against the island may take place as early as this year."
"Perhaps Xi Jinping will soon make some kind of address in which he will announce a course for a tough confrontation with Washington on the Taiwan issue. Now no one will convince China that the United States is ready to conduct a dialogue with it. And at the same time, no one will convince China to act against Russia," Mezhuyev is sure.
"From this moment, the cold war between China and the United States begins, which will also put other countries that, in general, would not want to choose between them," the Americanist believes. "Humanity as a whole will only lose from this – we are talking about a new cold war, comparable to what the Soviet Union had with America," the Americanist complains.
Bordachev is also confident that Beijing will not accept an insult from the United States. "The fact that Beijing has received a portion of humiliation is unlikely to greatly affect its reputation among its Asian neighbors now. But it will be an important lesson for the Chinese. There will be an increased understanding of who they are dealing with and how limited their ability to protect their interests without resorting to force is. Relations between China and the United States will get worse. Another step has been taken towards a large–scale military conflict between these countries," the analyst believes.
The concentration of Chinese military forces, which could be observed on the eve and during Pelosi's flight to Taipei, is only increasing. On Tuesday evening, it became known that the Eastern Zone of the PLA Command will begin a series of military operations near Taiwan. They include long-range live firing in the Taiwan Strait and a test of a missile with a non-nuclear warhead, RIA Novosti reports. The shooting will begin on Tuesday. Under the guise of large-scale exercises in the waters around Taiwan, Beijing may go for a complete sea and air blockade of the island, military expert Alexei Leonkov told the agency.
Alyona Zadorozhnaya, Daria Volkova, Rafael Fakhrutdinov
