Military expert Andrey Frolov — how Paris helps the Ukrainian army with its weapons
France has become one of the most active sponsors of the Ukrainian army in the current conflict. Although in absolute numbers, her help, at first glance, does not seem very large, from a qualitative point of view, the French are in the leading positions. This is primarily due to the supply of self-propelled 155-millimeter CAESAR howitzers to Ukraine, which have a firing range of up to 41 km, and an active—rocket projectile - up to 46-49 km, which makes it comparable in range with the much heavier Russian 203-millimeter 2S7M "Malka" self-propelled howitzers, and even when using active-jet shells. Thus, counter-battery warfare with these systems is a difficult task, and the howitzers themselves in the hands of the Ukrainian army have become a very valuable acquisition, which is used to defeat particularly important targets in the deep rear. However, there were reports of the use of these systems for shelling residential areas of Donetsk.
In addition to CAESAR, the French exported their newest MMR ATGM to Ukraine — and, as in the case of CAESAR, from the presence of their own armed forces. Together with him, the older MILAN anti-tank complexes were also transferred. In general, as of the end of June, the volume of French military aid amounted to about €110 million.
But Paris does not plan to stop there. In the coming days, the VAB wheeled armored personnel carriers taken from storage will be transferred to the VFU. A convoy with these armored fighting vehicles was spotted in Slovakia, there were 14 armored personnel carriers in it. Apparently, the next step will be the transfer to Kiev of a batch of Exocet anti-ship missiles adapted for launching from a ground platform. This option was recently announced by French Defense Minister Sebastian Lecorny.
Such activity raises the question of its causes and limits. The French-Ukrainian military-technical cooperation has been going on for more than one year, and until February 24, 2022, it was already developing quite actively. It cannot be called very large by the standards of the global arms trade, in 2015-2020, France exported weapons to Ukraine in the amount of €104 million (for comparison, despite sanctions, French weapons worth €76 million were delivered to Russia during the same period). But in 2021-2022, this situation was supposed to change — in the form of a sharp increase in supplies.
The main driver of rapprochement with France in the defense sphere was the former Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Avakov, who, together with his son, actually became the main lobbyist and manager of French defense companies in Ukraine. With his direct participation, in 2018, the first major contract was signed for the supply of 55 helicopters manufactured by Airbus Helicopters, of which 21 H225 helicopters (all used), 24 H125 new production and 10 new H145 for a total of €551 million. By the end of 2021, Ukraine has received 18 helicopters, including two H125, six H145 and 10 H225. Apparently, several more cars have arrived already this year.
But the cooperation did not end with helicopters. With the active lobbying of the same Avakov, an agreement was signed in 2020 to supply the state Border Service of Ukraine with 20 OCEA FPB 98 MKI boats worth € 136.5 million, the first of which was launched in France in December 2021 — as far as we know, they did not have time to transfer it to Ukraine.
Despite the dismissal of Avakov in July last year, the contracts concluded with him continued to be executed, although the French began to gradually lose positions that the United States and Great Britain began to occupy more and more actively. At the same time, Paris did not lose hope of restoring its position through such expensive contracts as the supply of a remote sensing satellite and a batch of Dassault Rafale fighters. But the commercial basis of cooperation between the two countries has been crossed out since the beginning of the special military operation.
Despite Macron's very high activity in the Ukrainian direction, the transfer of weapons to Ukraine eventually began to raise questions in France itself. For example, the initiatives of the French president led to the fact that CAESAR howitzers had to be withdrawn for the VFU (and at the moment Ukraine has been promised 18 units) not only from the army, in which there are only 75 of them, but also from the export contract being implemented with Morocco — for the supply of 36 howitzers. The delivery of the MMR ATGM raises similar questions. Their exact number is unknown, but the French army purchased 1,900 missiles for this complex, of which 200-300 units were estimated to be used in exercises, tests and during combat operations in Africa. The transfer of even a few dozen such missiles has an impact on the combat capability of France itself, as well as its reputation as a reliable supplier of weapons.
A sign of the depletion of Paris' capabilities was the transfer of VAB armored personnel carriers withdrawn from combat, which do not belong to modern types of weapons in any way and are unlikely to be in demand on the foreign market. Probably, we should continue to expect deliveries of such systems, not excluding the famous French FAMAS automatic rifle, which is now being actively replaced by the German NK416F.
Thus, France is an important supplier to the VFU of those weapons systems in which there is the greatest need (long-range artillery, armored vehicles). However, the small size and relatively modest capabilities for the supply of decommissioned weapons are unlikely to be able to bring France to the first positions among NATO donors.
Andrey Frolov — military expert
The editorial board's position may not coincide with the author's opinion
