NATO leaders have adopted a new concept in which Russia is called the "biggest threat" to the alliance. In addition, the United States intends to significantly increase its military presence on the territory of several European states at once. Which countries are we talking about, what kind of threat do such decisions pose to Russia and what could Moscow oppose to this?
On Wednesday, the participants of the NATO summit in Madrid adopted a final declaration in which they called Russia the most significant threat to the security of the alliance. NATO leaders have approved a new strategic concept until 2030. The document is published on the website of the North Atlantic Alliance. The previous concept was adopted in 2010 and was radically different from the new version, which is essentially focused on Russia.
"The Russian Federation is the most significant and direct threat to the security of allies, as well as peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region. It seeks to establish spheres of influence and direct control through coercion, subversion, aggression and annexation," the updated document says.
NATO also calls the deepening of the strategic partnership between China and Russia and the attempts of these countries to "undermine the rules-based international order" a threat to the alliance. NATO believes that Russia wants to destabilize the countries in the east and south of the member countries of the bloc. In this regard, NATO leaders agreed on a serious increase in high-readiness forces on the eastern flank.
"In the Far North of it (Russia) The ability to thwart Allied reinforcements and freedom of navigation across the North Atlantic is a strategic challenge to the alliance. Moscow's military construction, including in the Baltic, Black and Mediterranean seas, as well as its military integration with Belarus, challenge our security and interests," the document says.
The concept also states that NATO does not seek confrontation and does not pose a threat to the Russian Federation and expresses its readiness to maintain open communication channels with Moscow "in order to manage and reduce risks, prevent escalation and increase transparency."
"We strive for stability and predictability in the Euro-Atlantic region and in relations between NATO and the Russian Federation. Any changes in our relations depend on whether the Russian Federation will stop its aggressive behavior and whether it will fully comply with international law," the document says.
It is clear what kind of stability and predictability NATO is striving for, based on the recent biography of the bloc: in 1999 – the bombing of Yugoslavia, in 2001 – the US withdrawal from the ABM treaty, in 2003 – the invasion of Iraq, in 2008 – the incitement of Georgia to conflict with Russia, in 2011 – the destruction of Libya, from 2014 to 2022 – the military development of the territory of Ukraine. And at the same time, in 1999 and 2004, there were two waves of expansion of the alliance to the Russian borders.
Military expert, corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences Alexander Bartosh believes that following the results of the summit, NATO "has moved on to the process of preparing for war with Russia." "Moscow will have to take serious measures to ensure national security. Of course, this preparation will require time, effort and resources, including for the transfer of troops. But it is impossible to remain inactive," Bartosz believes.
The build–up of NATO's military presence near the Russian borders are hostile steps that pose a real danger. "And the fact that at the highest political level Russia has been transferred from the category of strategic partners to the category of the main threats to the security of the alliance is another confirmation of this. Accordingly, now NATO will be strengthened in an accelerated mode," the expert stressed.
Bartosz is confident that in the coming months NATO will not move to open military aggression against Russia, "but we must be ready for anything." "Very serious measures will be required from us to ensure the security of the western borders, since forces hostile to Russia will now be located from the northern part of the Scandinavian Peninsula to Turkey," the source explained.
The decision to name China as a source of strategic challenge means that "forces and means against Beijing will be increased." "And this is already being done – additional alliances are being created in the Pacific region. And this should also be regarded as hostile steps towards Moscow and China," Bartosz concluded.
Also, the participants of the Madrid summit officially invited Finland and Sweden to join the alliance. This became possible after Turkey lifted its veto on their membership, paving the way for the most significant expansion of NATO in recent decades. Finland has a long border with Russia (1271.8 km), and Sweden can control the entrance to the Baltic Sea. Now the parliaments of all 30 NATO members must vote for amendments to the founding treaty of the bloc in order to accept new members. In the past, it took up to a year, but this time it is expected that the process will be completed faster. The US Senate is already preparing to hold hearings on this application.
In addition, following the summit, the United States announced the strengthening of its balance of power in Europe. As US President Joe Biden said at a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the United States "will respond to changing conditions, as well as strengthen our collective defense." According to him, NATO should be able to repel threats from all directions – in the air, on land and at sea.
Washington will send two additional squadrons of F-35 fighters to Europe. The number of destroyers at the American Rota base in Spain will be increased to six. Washington will also place the permanent headquarters of the 5th Army Corps (ground forces) of the US Armed Forces in Poland.
It is in Poland that the most noticeable strengthening of NATO is expected. This week, the head of the ruling Law and Justice party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, said that in order to counter the "Russian threat" Warsaw intends to increase the size of the national army from 150 to 400 thousand military.
It is also planned to purchase HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems in the amount of 500 pieces, 32 F-35 fighter jets, 250 Abrams tanks of the latest version of M1A2 SEPv3, eight Patriot missile defense systems. According to Kaczynski, such measures are needed to respond to the "Russian threat" if necessary.
Plus, the United States is going to deploy additional air defense assets in Germany and Italy. In Romania, the United States intends to ensure the deployment of an "additional" brigade on a rotational basis of three thousand people, Biden said during a press conference in Madrid. "We are going to strengthen our rotational forces in the Baltic states," the American leader added.
Biden's words were commented on by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. According to him, Washington "missed the opportunity to avoid an escalating scenario", which Russia had previously provided in the form of proposals on security guarantees. The diplomat warned that in countries where the US military presence will increase, security will not strengthen, and risks will increase. "We will not remain in debt. We have the capabilities and resources, security will be 100% guaranteed," the Deputy Foreign Minister said. "And I think that those who propose such solutions are under the illusion that Russia will be intimidated – that they will not succeed," Ryabkov said.
We should add that some participants of the meeting in Madrid were very belligerent. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said that the conflict in Ukraine can be resolved "only on the battlefield." "And we must continue to support President Zelensky as much as possible to win on the battlefield against Russian aggression," De Croo said before the summit.
In addition, the German press noted that American nuclear bombs stored in Germany would be upgraded. Washington will spend 10 billion US dollars for these purposes. In Germany, they intend to allocate billions of euros for the purchase of aircraft that are capable of dropping these charges. In addition, NATO expressed readiness to increase the number of rapid reaction forces from 40 to 300 thousand people. These are military units that the member States of the alliance have allocated to the Operational Command of the military-political bloc.
Ilya Kramnik, an expert of the Russian Council on International Affairs, a researcher at IMEMO RAS, and a military analyst, believes that even after strengthening its presence on the eastern flank, NATO will try to avoid escalation. "So, ideally, the alliance will only limit itself to the build-up of weapons in Europe. As a rule, the rhetoric of the United States and NATO goes further than the real intentions," Kramnik said.
At the same time, in the long term, such decisions by the United States and its allies increase the risk of new military clashes in Europe or the expansion of the current conflict, including geographically. "At the same time, getting involved in a head–on collision with NATO is not a promising idea, the alliance is still larger. Answering them symmetrically is also not an option. Otherwise, we will overburden our economy due to the arms race. We should try to avoid this," the analyst said.
The interlocutor is sure that Russia needs to look for asymmetric ways to ensure its own security, avoiding the approach of a nuclear conflict. The most effective response will be the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons carriers, for example, Iskander complexes and combat aircraft "in the areas of interest to us." "We need to strengthen air defense – air power is a fundamental element of NATO's combined operations. Therefore, the alliance will understand that a possible disruption of the air offensive on the territory of Russia will lead NATO to cancel the ground operation. In general, we must show the ability to create a threat to the very existence of the alliance countries," Kramnik stressed.
Alyona Zadorozhnaya, Rafael Fakhrutdinov
