The West is preparing for war before starvation
It is quite difficult to unambiguously assess the effectiveness of the actions of the Ukrainian ground air defense during the current conflict. At the time of the collapse of the USSR, it could be considered almost the best in the world in terms of the quantity and quality of air defense systems and air defense systems per unit area of the country. During the post-Soviet period, the Ukrainian air defense was not updated and gradually degraded.
LOSSES AND FAILURES OF EQUIPMENT
Nevertheless, Ukraine is still among the top ten countries in the world with the strongest ground-based air defense (" How terrible is the Ukrainian air defense ", "HVO", 11.02.22). So far, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have not been able to completely suppress the Ukrainian air defense, but its successes cannot be considered outstanding in any way. In particular, in January–March 1991, the Iraqi air defense system, which had neither the S-300 nor the Buks, inflicted much more serious losses on the US Air Force and its allies, although these air forces were much more numerous than the Russian Air Force now (" The dictator's paralysis ", "HBO", 05.03.21).
A significant part of the Ukrainian air defense equipment has developed its resource. This also applies to anti–aircraft guided missiles - hence the numerous cases of their falling on residential buildings in Kiev and other cities of Ukraine (the missiles not only did not hit the targets, but also did not self-destruct, that is, their actual failure occurred).
In addition, it should be borne in mind that the Ukrainian air defense system has S-300 air defense systems only of early modifications of PT and PS. In these modifications of this air defense system, three 5B55K missiles (firing range – 45 km) and one 5B55R missile system (75 km) are routinely placed on each launcher. Even in the case of serviceability of the missiles, this range is insufficient against aircraft with modern means of destruction.
According to photo and video materials, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost at the moment two divisions of the S-300 air defense system (one PT and one PS), three SOW 9A310 from the Buk air defense system, 13 Osa air defense systems, two Strela-10 air defense systems, three Shilka air defense systems, a significant number of MANPADS. The actual losses can be much greater.
Now the most important military resource of Ukraine is the help of the West. The easiest way, of course, is to transfer Soviet and related Eastern European equipment from the countries of the former socialist bloc. This topic was discussed in detail in the article " They don't look at the rusty tank in the trucks " ("HBO", 22.04.22). In particular, it was also about Soviet air defense systems. Of which, however, it may be completely insufficient. For all the countries of the former Warsaw Pact, taken together, have less ground-based air defense than Ukraine alone. At the same time, they are worse in quality.
Now we are talking about the supply of Western air defense systems. Moreover, they have already begun. So far, these are MANPADS, the handling of which is easiest to train personnel, and which are easiest to deliver to the front in large quantities because of their small size.
MELEE WEAPONS
American MANPADS "Stinger" (except the USA itself, which has tens of thousands of PU and missiles) are available in Germany (up to 865 PU), Italy (up to 150), Portugal (30), Finland (at least 75), Latvia and Lithuania (at least eight PU each). Denmark also has "Stingers", but in Copenhagen they say that their shelf life has expired.
Up to a thousand PU of this MANPADS are available in Turkey and about 500 in Greece. But these countries are constantly preparing to fight among themselves, so they are reluctant to share weapons. Switzerland has about 300 "Stingers", but it clearly does not want to get involved in this conflict yet.
In addition to the portable version, the Stinger is also used as a missile defense system for short-range air defense systems. In general, the installation of any MANPADS on the chassis of an APC or car increases mobility, significantly increases ammunition, as well as the target detection range (by placing radar and /or infrared and optical reconnaissance equipment on the same chassis). The disadvantage of this option is that it is easier for the enemy to detect and hit such a SAM.
In the USA, the deployment of the IM-SHORAD air defense system has now begun by installing Stingers on the Stryker APC chassis, but it is still impossible to imagine their deliveries to Ukraine. It is much more realistic to send there the Avenger air defense system ("Stingers" on the Hummer chassis), of which there are 703 in the US Armed Forces (up to 412 in storage). Also in the US Marine Corps there are 17 LAV-AD ("Stingers" on the LAV APC chassis).
Germany has 50 Ocelot air defense systems, in which Stingers (or French Mistrals, or our Needles) are installed on the chassis of the Visel BMD. The export version of this SAM is called ASRAD. There are 54 of them in Greece ("Stingers" on the Hummer) and 16 in Finland ("Stingers" on the local armored personnel carrier HA-181).
Dutch "Stingers" are installed either on the Fennek APC or on cars (18 in both versions). Turkey has 78 Zipkin air defense systems ("Stingers" on a Land Rover) and 70 Atylgan ("Stingers" on an American M113 APC).
The second most common of Western MANPADS is the French Mistral. The French army itself has 221 Mistrals in service, with another 200 to 600 in storage. Also, Belgium has "Mistrals" (45 PU, up to 97, possibly in storage), Spain (168), Estonia (at least 50), Hungary (45), Cyprus (60), Austria (34 PU, 40 more in storage). Norway has "Mistrals" installed on missile boats and minesweepers. At the same time, apparently, it was the Norwegians who first began supplying these MANPADS to Ukraine, leaving their fleet without air defense.
The British Starstrik MANPADS are only available in the UK itself in an unknown quantity. At the same time, there are 156 such MANPADS in the short-range SAM variant on the Stormer APC chassis (most of them are in storage).
The Swedish RBS-70 MANPADS is actually "not quite portable": a jeep is required for its transportation, the launch is made from a tripod. Sweden itself has up to 70 of these MANPADS, Norway – 56 (another 144 in storage), Finland – 86, Lithuania – 21, Latvia – 24, the Czech Republic - 16. Australia has 19 RBS-70 in service on the Bushmaster APC chassis.
At the moment, Ukraine has received hundreds, if not thousands of MANPADS ("Stinger", "Starstrik", "Mistral", "Strela-2/3", "Igla"). There have been cases of various types of portable anti-aircraft missiles hitting helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces. Given the number of the latter and the overall intensity of the fighting, this is a very low result, which is already being talked about quite openly in the West.
Moreover, a considerable number of MANPADS became trophies of the troops of the Russian Federation and the DPR / LPR. Presumably, a captured "Stinger" in early April, a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter was shot down near Mariupol. If this is true, then there is an amazing irony of fate (especially if we recall Afghanistan): our "Stinger" shot down an enemy Mi-8…
In addition to MANPADS on armored personnel carriers and armored vehicles in the West, there are specialized short-range air defense systems. Thus, the UK has 48 domestic Rapier air defense systems in service, up to 76 more in storage. 86 Rapiers are in service with the Turkish air defense, up to 60 such sams are available in Switzerland. Perhaps up to 40 Rapiers remain in storage with the Australian Army.
The air defense of the air bases of the French Air Force is carried out by 36 Krotal-NG air defense systems, but it is extremely difficult to imagine that the French will be ready to give them to Ukraine. However, up to 60 "Crotals" of early modifications can be stored. Finland has 20 "Crotales-NG", Greece has nine old "Crotales".
Obsolete Franco-German Roland short-range air defense systems remain in service in Spain (18) and Slovenia (six). In Germany, up to 87 Rolands can remain in storage, in France – up to 172.
A very old American SAM "Chaparral" is in service with the Portuguese army (up to 34 units). In the United States itself, up to 477 Chaparels can theoretically remain in storage.
Italian short-range air defense systems ("Spada", "Aspid", "Skyguard-Aspid") are in service with the Armed Forces of Italy itself (at least 70), Spain (13) and Cyprus (24). Finally, a unique SAM/Canada has the ADATS ATGM (34 units, most of them in storage).
MANPADS and short-range SAMs can be supplemented with anti-aircraft artillery. Anti-aircraft self-propelled guns are in the Italian army (75 25-mm SIDAM on the M113 chassis, another 200 in storage), in the arsenals of Sweden (30 40-mm Lvkv90 on the CV90 BMP chassis) and Portugal (up to 36 old American 20-mm M163 on the M113 chassis). In the USA, up to 120 M163 can be stored.
Old German 35-mm ZSU "Cheetah" can remain in storage in Germany itself (up to 340) and in Holland (up to 35). The number of towed 20-mm, 30-mm, 35-mm, 40-mm anti-aircraft guns in the collective West may exceed 3 thousand. But their effectiveness as a means of air defense is questionable: now they are rather "superpulemets" for ground combat.
RANGED WEAPONS
Much more valuable for Ukraine are medium- and long-range anti-aircraft missile launchers, although they are much more expensive and more difficult to master.
In the battery of the Advanced Hawk air defense system, there are six to nine PU with three missiles on each. The Armed Forces of Italy are armed with ten batteries of this SAM, Spain and Greece – seven batteries each, Turkey and Romania – eight batteries each. In the USA itself, up to 58 batteries of the "Advanced Hawk" can theoretically remain in storage, up to 15 batteries – in storage of the French Armed Forces. But this SAM is still outdated, and now Kiev is unlikely to want to get it.
The other two quite modern air defense systems will almost certainly not get to Ukraine – because their users themselves need them. The Swedish RBS-23 exists in the amount of only three batteries (three PU with six missiles on each), which in recent years have been urgently deployed on the island of Gotland in order to repel Russian aggression. The battery of the French-Italian air defense system "Mamba" (aka SAMR/T) includes four to six PU with eight ZUR on each. They are available only in France (ten batteries) and Italy (six batteries) and have been deployed quite recently.
But Ukraine really wants to get a completely modern Norwegian medium-range air defense system NASAMS, using the American air-to-air missile AIM-120 AMRAAM as a missile system. Six missiles are placed on the PU, three or four platoons of three PU in the battery. This air defense system is in service in Norway itself (five batteries), in Finland, Lithuania and the Netherlands (two batteries each), in Spain (four batteries).
Kiev wants to get the American Patriot air defense system even more. The United States now has 62 active batteries of this air defense system (there are six to eight PU in the battery, four missiles on each). Up to 26 more batteries may be in storage.
Germany has 22 Patriot batteries (including two training ones), two more in reserve. Holland has three batteries in service and four in reserve. Greece has six batteries of this air defense system, Sweden has four, Spain has three, Romania has one (and there will be seven in total). At the moment, it is difficult to imagine the supply of Patriots to Ukraine. But it cannot be ruled out that in the end a certain number of American, German and Dutch air defense systems of this type will still be there.
TO THE POINT OF COMPLETE EXHAUSTION
The "old NATO" of the Cold War era relied heavily on aviation – to the detriment of artillery and ground air defense (" What languages does the god of war speak", "HBO", 19.05.22). Therefore, the countries of the "new NATO", that is, the former socialist camp, turned out to have the most powerful air defense systems. Many Western European countries, as can be seen, have negligible ground air defense assets. In addition, it must be understood that these are not the 1940s and 1950s, when the main countries of the world could produce military equipment of all classes by tens of thousands of units per year. The current equipment is very expensive and complex, and this applies to air defense systems to the maximum extent. Therefore, there is a very real problem of depletion of arsenals, which will be extremely difficult to compensate for with new production (at least in an acceptable time).
However, the current conflict in Ukraine has already assumed the character of a war of attrition. And the collective West is ready to switch to a starvation ration in the expectation that Russia will run out and collapse sooner.
Alexander Khramchikhin
Alexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin is an independent military expert.
