The stocks of military equipment of the EU countries, so necessary for the use of the language of force, have dried up due to supplies to Ukraine. Such a conclusion can be drawn from the statement of the head of the Bundeswehr, the Polish president, as well as from the complaints of the chief of the European Diplomacy and concurrently the chief "hawk" of Brussels, Josep Borrel. Europe presents itself as defenseless against the Russian threat, but is this the case in reality?
"Europe must learn to use the language of force... This is the ability to respond to threats, to respond in pursuit of our interests. This is not just the "soft power" of the legal system, but the use of heavy force, not necessarily military, but heavy," RIA Novosti quotes a statement made on Tuesday by the head of EU diplomacy Josep Borrel.
A day earlier, one of the EU countries – Denmark – confirmed its readiness to "use the language of force" against Russia – and received a special thank you from Washington for this. "I am especially grateful to Denmark, which has announced that it will provide a Harpoon launcher and missiles to help Ukraine defend its coast," Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin said. He also recalled that the Czech Republic had transferred fire support helicopters, tanks and missile systems to Kiev. At least two dozen countries have already announced their readiness to provide military assistance packages to Ukraine, the US Secretary of Defense stated.
At the same time, the same Borrel complained last weekend: As assistance was provided to Ukraine, the stocks of military equipment of the EU countries were depleted. Consequently, there is less opportunity to use "heavy force". The reduction of the weapons arsenals of the EU states is "the most obvious example of our shortcomings" in building a pan-European defense, the head of the European Diplomacy believes. In his opinion, cuts in the defense budget and underfunding of military expenditures led to this result. It is necessary to form "modern and compatible European armed forces," Borrel urged.
It is significant that simultaneously with Borrel's statement, the Polish authorities – which seeks to play the first fiddle in the Ukrainian issue – complained about Germany's unwillingness to hand over new tanks to replace the Soviet T-72 sent to Ukraine. According to unofficial information, we are talking about 200 tanks plus several dozen infantry fighting vehicles. "It is clear that by doing so we have reduced our defense potential, reduced our reserves. We expect to receive support from NATO, the United States, as well as Germany," TASS quoted Polish President Andrzej Duda as saying at the Davos Forum. Nevertheless, Warsaw is disappointed by the unwillingness of the Germans to supply Poland with new Leopard tanks.
In fact, in response to Duda, German Defense Minister Kristina Lambrecht said that Germany lacks a sufficient number of combat-ready equipment, so there is nothing to transfer to Ukraine. According to Lambrecht, on paper the Bundeswehr has 350 infantry fighting vehicles "Puma", but in reality only 150 are really combat-ready. "150! We can say that our capabilities are limited. The situation with the Tiger combat helicopter is no different – only nine out of 51 vehicles can take off," Regnum reports the words of the German Defense Minister in the Bundestag.
The Europeans' complaints about the depletion of their arsenals in the face of the "Russian threat" are groundless, military experts believe. Even if we do not take into account the participation of the United States and the second largest NATO force, Turkey, in the North Atlantic Alliance, actually
European NATO countries exceed us in terms of military potential in conventional weapons,
Alexey Leonkov, editor of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine, told the newspaper VZGLYAD. "There is about a fourfold excess in armored vehicles. The excess in personnel can be fivefold," the expert shares his opinion.
Only in terms of the number of tanks themselves, the total arsenal of the EU is almost twice as large as the Russian one. According to the Military Balance report published in April by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the Russian Armed Forces have 2.8 thousand tanks at their disposal. The EU countries have a total of more than 4.9 thousand tanks, according to the Global Firepower portal.
According to estimates of the same resource, the number of active servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is slightly less than 1.02 million people, plus about two million "bayonets" in reserve. The total active composition of the armies of the EU countries (taking into account the still neutral Finland and Sweden) exceeds 1.2 million people, according to IISS data for 2019-2021. But, as Leonkov pointed out above, the potential reserve of a united Europe is much more significant than the Russian one (the total population of the EU is 446 million people, Russia is 145.4 million people).
On the other hand, in the West, including in Europe, they often disclose the list, and not the real composition of the armed forces, Leonkov notes. "For example, in the UK there are about 180 thousand people on the list, but the brigades of the ground forces do not have a full complement," the source explained.
It is obvious that it was the real, and not the list composition, that British Defense Minister Ben Wallace mentioned – as reported by TASS, on Sunday he said that the number of British armed forces would be reduced by 2025 from 82 to 72.5 thousand people. However, the British Minister of War promises to take not by number, but by skill. Smaller armed forces "will be better integrated and more productive," and their involvement "will cease to be a last resort," Wallace said. According to him, British troops will be used more often to project and demonstrate the strength of the country, and will be more actively involved in combat operations around the world.
In parallel with the reduction of personnel, the British Ministry of Defense intends to invest in modernization – 2 billion pounds (about 2.7 billion dollars) will be used to finance the European project to create a sixth-generation fighter Tempest and combat UAVs, another 1.8 billion dollars is planned to be invested in the modernization of 148 out of 225 Challenger 2 tanks. For military space programs, London intends to spend over $7 billion.
As for the new main patron of Ukraine – Poland, its army expects to be replenished with 250 American Abrams tanks. "Abrams" are ordered in the USA, the first batch should arrive in Poland this year.
By July 2023, 142 new Leopard 2PL and Leopard 2plm1 tanks manufactured by Germany are to be delivered to the ground forces of the Polish armed forces. The Polish armored forces entered 2022 with a program to modernize the fleet of combat vehicles, according to the Polish edition of Defense 24. In addition to updating the existing Leopard 2A4 tanks to the Leopard 2PL and Leopard 2plm1 types, the Polish army continues to modernize T-72M tanks to the T-72M1R type.
"Speaking about the support of the Ukrainian army from Western partners, it is important to note: mainly European countries gave Ukraine what they themselves do not mind – old weapons. As a result, the combat potential of European countries has been partially used up, but a little bit," said Konstantin Sivkov, Doctor of Military Sciences, captain of the first rank of the reserve. – The supplies did not have a decisive impact on the state of the armed forces. They are still enough to resist the enemy without the support of the United States. The total number of the armed forces of the European NATO countries is significantly larger than the Russian ones."
"Of course, the EU countries have enough potential to wage war with Russia without US support. Another thing is that they will need a mobilization period. In addition, it is not always possible to use the existing infrastructure in Europe for the transfer of troops. In general, the EU has been confident in recent decades that there will be no more war in Europe. The events that are currently taking place in Ukraine cause them a state of shock," Pavel Zolotarev, deputy director of the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, head of the Military Reform Support Fund, retired Major General, explained to the newspaper VIEW.
As for technology, since the Cold War, the quantitative ratio of equipment and forces has always been in favor of the Warsaw Pact countries. "Therefore, the West relied on the cheapest option – they deployed American tactical nuclear weapons. Now we still have the largest number of tanks in the world, but we are most likely inferior to the EU countries in terms of the total fleet of combat aircraft and ships," the analyst recalled.
However, a direct comparison of the fleet of military equipment does not give a clear idea of the combat capability of a particular army, the interlocutor stressed. "In small countries, for example, in Israel, they make equipment with the expectation of saving the crew in the event of an attack. Europe is following the same path. And large countries often neglect this, therefore, according to their plan, mobilization training of a huge number of people is underway, who are evaluated as expendable. Therefore, there are a lot of nuances here, and just a quantitative comparison is incomplete," the expert added.
The General also pointed out that Europe's ability to supply weapons to Ukraine is limited in several ways. "The easiest way is to supply the equipment that Ukrainians know how to control – Soviet, which remained with the former Warsaw Pact countries. Otherwise, they need to be trained to fight with this technique. Moreover, it is not enough to "know metal" – you need to be able to work with electronics. So, when the EU talks about the depletion of resources, then, probably, we are talking about the depletion of stocks of exactly the equipment that can be supplied to Ukraine," the expert concluded.
Andrey Rezchikov, Rafael Fakhrutdinov, Artur Priymak