Military expert Andrey Frolov — on how the Ukrainian military-industrial potential has changed during the Russian operation
On March 31, Advisor to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Alexey Arestovich made a remarkable statement. According to him, "They [Russia] have practically destroyed our military industry, in many ways. And in many ways they finish off the civilian." Let's try to consider how this corresponds to reality.
After the collapse of the USSR, quite a large number of defense enterprises remained in Ukraine — the Ukrainian SSR accounted for the production of up to 25% of Soviet military products. However, 80% of this production was provided by cooperative supplies from other republics. As a result, by 2010, the military-industrial complex of Ukraine could fully provide a full production cycle for about 8% of the samples of manufactured equipment. The process of deindustrialization and conversion affected the Ukrainian military-industrial complex to a considerable extent, many enterprises were closed or repurposed for the production of non-military products. As a result of the events of 2014-2015, control over 18 defense enterprises of Donbass and 13 of Crimea was lost. But as of 2018, 447 enterprises of Ukraine participated in the production of military products and components. Thus, we can say that the military-industrial complex of Ukraine at the time of the beginning of the special military operation was a fairly large industrial entity.
The Ministry of Defense of Russia announced on March 6 that the enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine are one of the goals of the ongoing demilitarization. The official representative of the department, Major General Igor Konashenkov, then said: "the Kiev regime of nationalists forces employees of enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine to restore damaged military equipment for subsequent deployment to combat areas. As part of the task of demilitarizing Ukraine, the Russian armed forces will defeat Ukrainian enterprises of the military-industrial complex with high-precision weapons. In order to avoid a threat to the lives of employees of enterprises of the Ukrainian defense industry, we warn in advance about planned strikes on such objects."
But, apparently, the first really affected enterprise of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex was Antonov State Enterprise, whose test base was located at Gostomel airport and during the fighting between the Russian landing and the forces of the Ukrainian army was almost completely destroyed back in February. The symbol of this was the AN-225 "Mriya" transport aircraft. The amount of damage to the KB as a whole is difficult to estimate, but it is obvious that it was significant. Moreover, the fate of two AN-124-100 transport aircraft, which were in Ukraine at the time of the start of the operation and brought the company substantial foreign exchange earnings as part of the Antonov Airlines subsidiary, is unclear.
At the moment, apparently, it is possible to speak with full confidence about the destruction of the Kharkiv "bush" of enterprises of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex. These are, first of all, the Malyshev Plant State Enterprise, the Kharkiv Tractor Plant JSC, the Kharkiv State Aviation Production Enterprise, as well as a number of scientific enterprises and institutes. Apparently, this is where the full cycle of tank production in Ukraine ceased to exist, as well as aircraft of the AN-72/74 family. The capabilities in the field of nuclear energy have also been significantly undermined due to the significant destruction of the National Scientific Center "Kharkiv Institute of Physics and Technology".
It is also known that on the night of March 15, the Russian Armed Forces inflicted a massive blow on the buildings of the Kiev State Joint-Stock Holding Company (GAHK) "Artem". The company was engaged in the production of a wide range of ammunition and weapons of destruction. In particular, it produced air-to-air guided missiles, missiles for ATGM and ATGM, ammunition for the Alder MLRS and anti-ship missiles for the Ukrainian coastal complexes Neptune. Apparently, the destruction of the plant was caused by the requests of the Ukrainian authorities to NATO to provide anti-ship complexes.
Aircraft repair plants were also seriously affected. According to known data, a number of workshops at the Lviv State Aviation Repair Plant were destroyed, along with three MiG-29 fighters of the Azerbaijani Air Force that were being repaired there. Apparently, some damage was also received by the State Enterprise "Mykolaiv Aircraft Repair Plant "NARP", which was engaged in the repair of military transport aircraft IL-76 and tanker aircraft IL-78. Nothing is known about the judge of the State Enterprise "Odessa Aircraft Repair Plant" (repair of MiG-21/23/27 fighters, L-39 combat training aircraft, aircraft engines and re-equipment of An-24/26 aircraft and Mi-8 helicopters) and the State Enterprise "Konotop Aircraft Repair Plant Aviacon" (repair of Mi-2, Mi-8, Mi helicopters-24 and Mi-26).
Presumably, the Ukrainian shipbuilding industry was also affected. Kherson, together with LLC "Smart Maritime Group — Kherson Shipyard" (Kherson Shipyard), is occupied by Russian troops. The condition of two shipbuilding plants in Nikolaev (the Black Sea Shipbuilding Plant and the Nikolaev Plant) was not in the best shape until 2022, apparently, taking into account the rather serious battles around the city, it will only worsen.
At the same time, a number of Ukrainian defense enterprises did not suffer damage at all, including such iconic ones as Yuzhmash and Motor Sich. The reasons for this are unknown, probably much will depend on the further course of hostilities.
Thus, today it can be argued that the Ukrainian military-industrial complex has indeed suffered serious losses, and in some cases irreparable. Of course, in the history of the Soviet military-industrial complex there were examples when the same Kharkov enterprises quickly returned to service and even began to produce fundamentally new equipment (as was the case with the HTZ and the T-44 tank), but in the current conditions prevailing in Ukraine, the full restoration of most of the destroyed production seems unlikely. At the same time, dozens more enterprises of the defense complex of Ukraine remain untouched, which will allow the production and repair of individual items of military products to continue after the completion of the military operation.
Andrey Frolov — military expert
The editorial board's position may not coincide with the author's opinion
