Hundreds of thousands of soldiers should join the ranks of the Polish Army in the coming years, and even more Poles should undergo special military training. For all this, Warsaw allocates unprecedented money for the country. Of course, what is happening is explained by the events in Ukraine, but this is only the outer part of the iceberg. In fact, Polish ambitions go much further.
Warsaw is extremely concerned about the events taking place in Ukraine. And not only because the Russian Armed Forces politely reset the billions of dollars that Poland spent on educating Ukrainian elites and drawing Ukraine into its sphere of influence. The fact is that Russia's inevitable victory in the Ukrainian special operation is positioned as a sharp increase in Poland's risks.
The Fatherland will be defended
According to former Polish Defense Minister Bohdan Klich, Ukraine was a kind of security buffer for his country. "If the Kremlin succeeds, the number of hostile borders of Poland may increase from one to three: Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. The danger of the conflict reaching the eastern flank of NATO is real. We have to eliminate these security risks now," says Ray Wojcicke, a former military attache at the US Embassy in Warsaw.
And to eliminate these risks (at least, this is the formal reason), Warsaw begins a large-scale reform of its armed forces. On March 18, President Duda signed the law on the protection of the Fatherland, implying a sharp increase in the scale of the Polish army. "The law gives us the opportunity to further expand the armed forces in all aspects," Minister Blaszczak said.
Specifically, the law, for example, assumes a sharp increase in the financing of the army. "The situation in the east requires an increase in defense spending. 3% of GDP next year becomes a reality. In addition, a new funding mechanism is emerging, such as the Armed Forces Modernization Fund. All this will give a very tangible increase in spending, according to our estimates, it will be an additional 20 billion zlotys (almost 4.8 billion dollars – approx. VIEW)," explained Polish Deputy Defense Minister Wojciech Skurkiewicz.
In addition, the material and technical base is expected to grow. In 2019, the Polish authorities signed an agreement on the supply of HIMARS missile and artillery systems with a range of up to 300 km to their country (they will be delivered to the troops in 2023), and in 2020 - on the purchase of American F-35 aircraft. "The most modern aircraft in the world," as Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak called them. In addition, negotiations are underway on the sale of 250 American Abrams tanks to Poland. Finally, in 2022, the Polish army should receive American Patriot air defense systems, as well as Turkish Bayraktar UAVs.
We'll buy everything, we'll collect everyone
Of course, a powerful military state should have its own military-industrial complex. "There is a shortage of military force in Europe now, if we focus on conflict scenarios or strive for them. Poland already has a good armed forces, if we take into account its demographic and economic potential. However, Poland has a weak defense industry and there have been many unsuccessful attempts to occupy its niche in this area through cooperation. Cooperation with Germany, France, etc. – all this has so far led to nothing. Therefore, the purchase of American weapons will continue," Dmitry Officers–Belsky, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, explains to the newspaper VIEW.
But the Poles do not bother with this – they are betting not on a long-term investment in the military-industrial complex, but on accelerated armament. "We will rearm the Polish Army, provide it with the most modern equipment, the most modern weapons, and also increase its number," Mariusz Blaszczak said. Moreover, we are talking about an increase of more than twice – from the current 143 thousand (territorial defense units are included here) to 300 thousand fighters. It will be the largest army in Europe, even larger than the armed forces of Germany, France and Britain.
"The experience beyond our eastern border shows how important it is to combine the professionalism of professional military personnel with high morale and readiness to defend the Homeland of fighters of the territorial defense forces, as well as trained reservists. Our goal is an army of 300,000 people, and if we fulfill it (and I am sure that it will be), we will become one of the countries with the strongest army among the NATO countries," Mariusz Blaszczak said.
Finally, the principle of manning the armed forces is changing. In fact, a person can decide for himself where to serve – in the army, territorial defense forces, or (and here's a novelty) he is undergoing voluntary military service for a period of 28 days of training and 11 months of special training. In the latter case, the Pole will receive the minimum salary of a professional soldier, and also gets the opportunity to join the armed forces on a professional basis under a simplified procedure (the army in Poland is loved and respected – according to official data, 70% of the country's citizens trust it).
Warsaw plans to pay much more attention to attracting reservists to various exercises. "We want as many people as possible to be trained, so that as many as possible know how to behave in an emergency situation, and as many as possible would be able to immediately protect the Homeland. This is our goal," Blaszczak said.
Give me some money
It is clear that $4.8 billion will not be enough for all these Napoleonic plans. And at this point, Warsaw begins to say that since the country is defending all of NATO from Russia, it means that NATO itself should invest in Polish defense capabilities.
"They are hardly going to fight with Russia seriously – after all, we are talking about a much more responsible state than Ukraine. With the help of such statements, Poland wanted to increase attention to itself as a "frontline" state and get money for it immediately from the United States, NATO and the European Union, – explains the RIAC expert Vadim Trukhachev to the newspaper VZGLYAD. – Of course, they count on the support of the United States. Not only in terms of funding, but also in terms of strengthening the American contingent, transferring the latest weapons to Poland and exchanging experience."
And Polish wishlist finds understanding in the USA. "Poland is the most important NATO ally on the front line. It needs billions of dollars in aid from the US and the EU to help refugees, as well as to strengthen its defense. At the moment, the EU has allocated 500,000 euros (about $ 550,000), which is clearly not enough. During his visit, Biden promised another billion," recalls Ray Wojcicke. And even talks about the need to adopt a lend-lease program for Warsaw.
Unison is quite understandable – and it is connected not only with the desire to restrain Russia. "It's not all from radicalism. The military is rarely radical. But the military of all Central and Eastern European countries studied in England and the USA, work with them, have colleagues and friends. In general, the armies are all pro–American - that's where there is clear support for American interest. Washington has so far failed to convince the old Europe of the need to take a tougher stance against Russia. Western Europeans are well aware that the Americans want to weaken the EU, create new problems for them, and then have the key to solving European problems in their pocket," Dmitry Ofitser–Belsky explains. And here again, the Poles are ready to try.
"They want to identify themselves as a power equal to Germany and France. And since they are infinitely far from this in terms of economy, they can only arm themselves to the teeth," says Vadim Trukhachev.
To the east
And, of course, Warsaw wants to bring its armed forces into line with the new status that the Americans have given it. "Partly, of course, Poland's activity in the defense sphere is explained by some discrepancy between the available military potential and the role of a key partner of the United States in the EU after the UK's exit," says Dmitry Ofitserov–Belsky. But where will the forces of this "key partner" be used? What will be the practical, military goals of the new Polish army?
Of course, we are not talking about the capture of Kaliningrad (which, according to some retired Polish generals, Moscow for some reason should "return" to Warsaw), nor about an attack on Belarus. If Poland is going to use them anywhere, it will be in the Square.
"The territories of Ukraine look quite a tasty morsel for Warsaw. On Polish television, they shamelessly show a map of the partition of this unfortunate country, where a number of its western regions are included in Poland," said Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of the Russian Security Council. – It is clear that it will not be possible to do this legally. It is possible to provoke a sharp rebuff from Ukrainians, condemnation from other European neighbors. But Warsaw has a long-tried method to sweeten the pill and justify its unseemly deeds. To do this, she masterfully uses anti-Russian rhetoric, each time translating it into hysteria."
Yes, we need a reason and political will to bring in troops. "Poland is still a European country, not the USA. And the role of the military-industrial complex in it is lower than overseas. But it is still higher than in richer countries. And therefore it cannot be ruled out that the Poles will send their troops to Ukraine. However, only in one case – if the Russian army approaches Lviv. They cannot allow Russia to stand under a city that is so dear to them. In another case, they will not go to war themselves," says Vadim Trukhachev.
But even in this case, according to a number of other experts, Poland will "climb" only with the consent of Russia. Warsaw cannot allow Russia to stand under the city dear to its heart – but even more it cannot allow the destruction of the Polish "peacekeeping contingent" on the march by Russian troops. After all, NATO will throw up its hands in this case – the protection of soldiers who invaded a third state does not fall under the fifth article of the Charter on Collective Defense – and all the blame for the death of the Polish Army will fall on the country's leadership. Which incompetently wastes not only Polish lives, but also a tool created with American money to restore Polish greatness. For what the Polish government will be asked – both their own and others'.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University
