In Europe, another salvo of sanctions guns was fired. Now it came from an organization that is designed to provide supervision of passenger and cargo air transportation in the EU countries – the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA).
According to agency officials, sanctions against Russian civil aviation, including a comprehensive ban on the export of goods and technologies suitable for use in aviation, as well as a ban on the provision of technical assistance and other related services in relation to aviation goods and technologies, will contribute to ensuring flight safety in the Russian sky.
On March 12, the EASA website published documents on the suspension of all issued certificates, including certificates for products, parts and devices, as well as certificates for organizations and air trainers. EASA also suspends consideration of applications for certification that have already been received and will not accept any new applications for consideration. Restrictions apply to organizations and individuals if they are located or reside in Russia or otherwise fall under sanctions.
Holders of EASA type certificates and other holders of design permits are prohibited from maintaining airworthiness or performing any other form of maintenance of aircraft registered, designed or operated in Russia. The restrictions apply not only to Airbus and Boeing aircraft, but also to SSJ100 and MS-21. Ka-226, Ansat, Ka-62 helicopters and generally any other domestic aircraft.
"We need to realize this," one of the aviation industry experts told our website in response to a request to comment on the EASA decision.
Think about it: the agency responsible for security officially prohibits maintaining the airworthiness of aircraft only because they fly in Russia and transport Russian citizens. All code-sharing agreements, "degrees of freedom of air", lease agreements, etc. have been unilaterally terminated. The notorious partnership and the sanctity of private property rights have been flushed down the toilet. We can say that this sanctions salvo left scorched earth on both sides of the border between the European Union and Russia, as in Stalingrad...
Does anyone else think that everyone in Europe is "white and fluffy"? What is all this against "Putin's friends"? No! This is all against you and me, the citizens of Russia, all of us: both those who agree and those who disagree, according to EU officials, are Putin's friends. The purpose of the sanctions war is to destroy us morally in the first place, because we are all now thinking about how to overcome thousands of kilometers that separate our major cities from each other in an acceptable time and price, such as, for example, to go on a business trip or to visit friends and relatives from Kaliningrad to Omsk, Tomsk, Novosibirsk and Many people remember the Soviet period, when even just a plane ticket, especially in the summer season, was not something that was difficult to buy, and sometimes impossible due to a shortage of planes. Over the past twenty years, we have become accustomed to the accessibility and comfort of air travel, and what is happening now is unpleasant, causes confusion, uncertainty for the future. And as always, the question arises: "Who is to blame and what to do?".
We will not look for the culprits, because we know: "The power is in the truth!" and we know whose side it is on. But what to do and what to expect in the future, we will analyze.
On March 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on the registration of rights to foreign aircraft leased from Russian companies and the issuance of domestic SLGs to them. The law provides for amendments to the Air Code that will allow airlines to maintain a fleet of foreign aircraft and make it possible to operate aircraft on domestic lines. This Law establishes the legal basis for the continued operation of foreign aircraft in the country. Therefore, there will be no serious problems with the mobility of the population, serious restrictions will affect international transportation – their level in March-2022 has already fallen 16 times compared to March-2019.
In addition, a significant amount of short-haul interregional air transportation is carried out on "Superjets". According to the UAC, more than 60% of all passengers who fly on jet regional aircraft of Russian airlines are currently transported by domestic aircraft. The SSJ100 fleet is planned to increase to 192 aircraft by the end of 2022. This was announced on January 20 by Deputy Head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Oleg Bocharov at a meeting with Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin "On the development of civil aircraft and the renewal of the fleet of civil aviation aircraft of the Russian Federation."
At the same time, it should be recognized that a large number of foreign components in the design of the "Superjet" can lead to the fact that even in friendly neighboring countries it will not be able to fly because of the fear of these countries themselves to fall under the Euro-American sanctions rink. Production of the SSJ100 at the Komsomolsk-on-Amur aircraft factory may also be suspended or significantly reduced, and the launch of the import–substituted version of the Superjet - SSJ-New - will shift to the right in terms of timing.
The ban on certification of Russian aircraft in the European Union will lead to the fact that neither the new Superjet, nor the MC-21, nor other aircraft under development will receive European validation of the Russian type certificate in the future. As a result, these aircraft may face the impossibility of flying even to those countries whose airspace is open to Russia. But in this case, a mirror response will lead to a complete ban on planes and helicopters A and B in Russia, and their disappearance from the fleet of Russian airlines. And here the question arises: "What about your plans for the complete conquest of the Russian market by Western aircraft concerns?".
At MAKS-2019, the United Aircraft Corporation presented an overview of the global civil commercial aviation market for the next 20 years, compiled on the basis of mathematical modeling of the development of air transportation and demand for aircraft. In the context of our country, the demand for new aircraft is estimated at 1,470 aircraft worth about $182 billion. At the time of the review, 527 aircraft had already been ordered.
In the class of narrow-body aircraft, the expected demand is 1,040 units, of which 43% have already been ordered. The second most popular will be a group of aircraft with a capacity of more than 200 seats. It is possible to purchase 210 liners here. In the segment of regional jet aircraft, approximately 200 aircraft are expected to be delivered, 135 of which account for a group with a capacity of 91-110 seats. Demand for wide-body aircraft is projected at 140 sides. Orders covered 36% of the estimated demand for these aircraft.
If we recall that the MS-21 has had 175 firm orders for several years and there are no new ones yet, then the absolute majority of narrow-body airliners ordered by Russian airlines are Airbus and Boeing aircraft. In the current situation, Western concerns should forget about the tens of billions of dollars that they could earn on a Russian order, but will not earn for reasons beyond their control, and Irish and Bermuda lessors now need to calculate the lost profits, as well as losses from the unjustified termination of existing leasing contracts and the likelihood of getting back most of their aircraft with such the residual value that it will be easier to cut them into metal.
The expert community and the media express different points of view on what needs to be done now. For example, Tatarstan believes that the resumption of production of Tu-214 aircraft at the Kazan Aircraft Factory will provide Russia with air transport security. A similar opinion is held in Ulyanovsk regarding the Tu-204. In the wide-body segment, it is proposed to increase the production of IL-96-300 and accelerate work on IL-96-400M. There is also an opinion on the possibility of using the onboard equipment of the Tu-204SM aircraft for its adaptation to the MS-21.
Our interlocutor suggests looking for compromises with Europe. For example, to negotiate the return of aircraft to lessors in exchange for guarantees of the supply of components to the Superjet and the fulfillment of obligations to supply components to the Sam146 engine. But it is hopeless to negotiate in conditions when war has been declared on everything Russian: from world–renowned artists to ordinary Russians and cats with dry trees. If there are any agreements, then where are the guarantees that, at the whim of European Russophobes, they will not soon go to the same place where those that existed before March 2022 were lowered? There are no such guarantees. The European Union is not negotiable, its actions are dictated by the suzerain.
As for the resumption or increase in the production of Soviet-designed aircraft, there is a feeling that such opinions are expressed on emotions. The proposals are not accompanied by calculations of the cost of resuming these programs, but the main thing is how long it will take. And even when entering production, for example, the Tu-214 up to twenty cars a year, how quickly can you reach such a pace of aircraft construction? In Kazan, Tupolev civilian cars are produced piece by piece for a special customer, as well as on VASO – Il-96. The Tu-204 has not been produced in Ulyanovsk for more than 10 years, supply chains do not exist, and the Aviastar-SP plant itself is mastering the production of Il-76MD-90A in the interests of the Ministry of Defense.
Therefore, work should continue on the MS-21, SSJ-New, IL-114-300, Baikal and Ladoga. Engines PD-8, TV7-117ST, PD-35, VK-650 and VK-1600. It is pointless to spend resources on resuming the production of outdated equipment, because this will go to the detriment of new promising developments. There is no alternative to moving forward and import substitution.
If a few years ago, duties on the import of foreign aircraft into the country were actively discussed – to raise or reduce, now this issue has disappeared by itself. Neither Boeing nor Airbus has a future in Russia, European sanctions insanity is for a long time. We need to take a sober look at what is happening: without panic and without cap-making. Be patient and wait – new Russian planes are on the way, their appearance is inevitable – it's only a matter of time.
Andrey Velichko
for the website "Aviation of Russia"