Afghanistan is looking for buyers of captured weapons
As the capture of large settlements in Afghanistan, the Taliban detachments (banned in the Russian Federation) took possession of several large logistics depots of the NATO contingent in Afghanistan. As well as units of government forces, which, according to the plans of the Americans, were supposed to restrain the offensive impulse of the Taliban for three to six months.
As can be seen from the data published in open sources, among the Afghan trophies:
- explosion-resistant wheeled armored vehicles of American production for the transportation of military personnel;
- 23 light turboprop attack aircraft A29 "Super Tucano" (manufactured by Embraer, Brazil);
- 33 Mi-17 transport helicopters, which were previously purchased by the United States in Russia for the government troops of Afghanistan;
- 33 UH-60 Blackhawk transport helicopters;
- four Mi-35 attack helicopters transferred by India.
In addition, the Taliban captured several American-made light and medium propeller transport aircraft. As well as a significant number of small arms and accessories, equipment and radio communication systems.
The leadership of the Taliban movement may decide to sell part of the wheeled armored vehicles to interested countries - China, Turkey and all other countries interested in studying American weapons.
The Taliban commanders decided to continue using Toyota pickups as the main vehicle, which, unlike American armored vehicles, are considered more durable and easy to maintain.
In particular, Chinese defense companies, through Pakistani intermediaries, will be able to buy several UH-60 Blakchawk helicopters from the Taliban for analysis and study of the engine design.
It is likely that with the assistance of foreign technical specialists, the Taliban will be able to restore the airworthiness of some Mi-17s. However, taking into account the operating and maintenance conditions, they will not be able to form a full-fledged squadron.
Some of the A-29 "Super Tucano" attack aircraft will be sold by the Taliban in parts to countries that have established close military and political contacts with the leadership of the movement (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar).
In general, the sale of aviation and automotive equipment, samples of weapons and military equipment will provide the Taliban movement with cash to pay for the supply of food and other necessary goods in the conditions of the ongoing economic catastrophe. It is worth noting that the Taliban's determination in this matter has only intensified against the background of news about the US freezing of Afghanistan's foreign exchange reserves.
It is likely that the scale of sales of foreign military equipment will be significant, since its estimated value is about $ 85 billion. The receipt of even half of this amount will allow the Taliban to mitigate the consequences of the economic collapse at least at a minimum level, since the bank accounts of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan are blocked.
It is possible that the Taliban commanders will exchange some of the captured military equipment for other weapons and ammunition that are more effective in the conditions of hostilities in Afghanistan.
There is no reliable verified information about how many planes and helicopters the Taliban got.
Firstly, the Afghan troops destroyed part of the aircraft during the retreat. Secondly, it is known that a number of aircraft have been moved to neighboring countries. Thirdly, several aircraft were part of a special-purpose aviation unit, the data on which are classified and require additional verification.
Nevertheless, the Taliban had at their disposal attack aircraft and helicopters that were effective for combat operations in this region, including American, Russian, and Brazilian–made aviation equipment.
Air Fleet
In 2011, the gradual reduction of the NATO mission in Afghanistan was announced. In preparation for the curtailment of the military presence, the United States and its allies have created a new army and a new air force – the National Air Corps of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IRA). It includes equipment of the former Northern Alliance, helicopters manufactured by the USA and the Russian Federation. As NATO forces withdrew from the country, helicopters previously operated by the US Air Force were partially placed at the disposal of the Afghan military.
The US Air Force on a competitive basis selected the Brazilian light turboprop multi-purpose attack aircraft A-29 "Super Tucano" (Embraer EMB 314 Super Tucano) for use in Afghanistan as a reconnaissance and combat training aircraft, as well as for air support of troops. This aircraft, for example, was used to escort convoys and equipment of friendly forces.
The A-29s intended for delivery to Afghanistan were produced by the Brazilian aircraft conglomerate Embraer together with the American Sierra Nevada Corporation. The contract worth $ 355 million provided for the delivery of 20 aircraft for the Afghan Air Force in 2016-2018. Ten more aircraft were used to train flight personnel in the United States (presumably one aircraft was lost). According to the office of the American Special Inspector General for the Reconstruction of Afghanistan (SIGAR), on January 1, 2021, it was the "Super Tucano" that formed the basis of the strike power of the Afghan Air Force.
After the start of a large-scale offensive by the Taliban, the "Super Tucano" flying 5-10 sorties a day were able to inflict the greatest losses on the militants. However, the insufficient number of these aircraft and the lack of pilots trained to control them did not allow changing the balance of power. Moreover, fearing the threat from the air, the Taliban announced a hunt for government army pilots. In the summer of 2021, several IRA Air Force officers and their family members were killed by militants.
Currently, the Taliban offers pilots and aircraft technicians who have joined the ranks of the group a lot of money. According to some reports, the amounts offered by the militants exceed those previously paid by the government in Kabul. It is known that a number of pilots from among the personnel of the Kunduz Airbase have already joined the Taliban, and there is a possibility that in the near future the Taliban will have their own air Force on a limited scale.
The main advantage of the "Super Tucano" is the low cost of flight hours and the low cost of production and operation. "Super Tucano" cannot fully conduct air combat against enemy aircraft of a higher class and defend themselves.
Potentially, the "Super Tucano" could be useful for the Taliban to conduct operations in Afghanistan. However, even if the Taliban can get serviceable Brazilian-made aircraft, they will inevitably face a maintenance problem. In the Afghan Air Force, only two types of aircraft could undergo a full maintenance cycle without the participation of American specialists - Mi-17 and C-208 Cessna Caravan helicopters.
At the same time, the United States will try to monitor the market for spare parts for airplanes and helicopters and, if possible, prevent their supply to Afghanistan. In addition, it is known that some of the "Super Tucano" were driven by Afghan pilots to the territory of neighboring states – for example, to Uzbekistan. One of the A-29 aircraft was shot down by mistake by the air defense system of Uzbekistan. If the authorities of the countries into whose territory the Afghan planes have flown can find a legal justification, they will try to keep the aviation equipment for themselves.
The appearance of Super Tucano aircraft in the IRA Air Force influenced the displacement of Soviet and Russian-made equipment, which had previously enjoyed great popularity in Afghanistan because of its reliability and unpretentiousness. Given the current situation, neighboring States may also be interested in organizing the official export of Super Tucano aircraft from Afghanistan. Such countries include Turkmenistan, which received aircraft of this model in 2020.
Some of the Afghan "Super Tucanos" can be sold by the Taliban in parts to the countries of Central Asia and the Middle East, which will provide the Taliban movement with funds to pay for the supply of medicines, food, and necessary goods from neighboring countries. But it is impossible to completely exclude the opposite option, in which the Taliban will try to acquire or even seize aircraft in neighboring states for further operation.
Competence Center
At the end of 2021, experts from the Center for International Policy in Washington published a study on "American Weapons stocks in Afghanistan."
The authors of the report believe that over two decades of war, the United States has transferred billions of dollars worth of weapons, equipment and other material assets to the country. But with the rapid withdrawal of American troops and the even more rapid collapse of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF), the Taliban took control of the arsenal of weapons abandoned by the United States and its allies.
Fighters of the Taliban movement banned in the Russian Federation are increasingly using abandoned American equipment. Photo by Reuters
Analysis of photos and videos from Afghanistan shows that the "collection" acquired by the Taliban contains not only samples of small arms, but also Blackhawk attack helicopters. Experts of the Center for International Policy recognize that a full accounting of the weapons seized by the Taliban is impossible. But in the conditions of a temporary lull, it is necessary to calculate the approximate number of weapons systems that the United States has supplied to ANDSF, as well as to develop a common understanding of the risks associated with the sale of these weapons to third countries.
The most complete official information on US arms exports for the benefit of ANDSF is reflected in the report of the Government Accountability Office (GAO) for 2017 and in the report of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) for 2020. But these official documents do not allow us to fully assess the structure of the ANDSF arsenal: they lack information about the failure of weapons and military equipment, its breakdown and the necessary spare parts. Equipment in the harsh climatic conditions of Afghanistan may be damaged or fail for other reasons. In addition, the United States lost several pieces of equipment during its transportation.
Thus, American experts recognize that a full accounting of the arsenal, which is now controlled by the Taliban, is not possible. Of course, the US military and intelligence agencies will work to assess what was captured by the Taliban, since decision makers in the US have already expressed their desire to receive more complete information about the captured weapons, but it will take time.
From 2003 to 2016, according to GAO estimates, $18 billion was spent on weapons and transport for ANDSF. Over the years, the United States has funded the transfer of 884,311 pieces of equipment to ANDSF. These are 162,000 pieces of communication equipment; 75,898 vehicles; 599,000 weapons (light weapons, artillery, etc.); 29,000 pieces of ammunition disposal equipment; 16,000 pieces of reconnaissance equipment and 208 aircraft.
According to SIGAR reports, in 2017-2019, the United States transferred at least 234,000 additional pieces of equipment to Afghanistan, including 1,300 grenade launchers, 20,000 hand grenades, ten helicopters, 7,000 machine guns, 3,700 night vision devices, 36,000 rifles, 21,000 rocket-propelled grenades and 12,000 pistols.
Commodity risks
Although the exact number of American weapons, vehicles, aircraft and military equipment seized by the Taliban is unknown and remains estimated, this arsenal poses various risks both locally and outside Afghanistan.
So far, the planes depicted in the photos of the Taliban on social networks have attracted the most attention. But the benefits for the Taliban from their availability, as already mentioned, are limited by low logistics and maintenance capabilities.
The Taliban will probably be able to put pilots on planes to make several sorties, as they have already done at the holiday parade after the final withdrawal of American troops. But they will almost certainly need outside help to keep the received aircraft in good condition.
Moreover, Afghans are excluded from the global supply chain needed to access spare parts. And although they may be able to disassemble several aircraft to service others, such a model remains unstable. But perhaps some external partners - Pakistan, Qatar or others - can provide the necessary assistance to the Taliban.
The most useful asset from the Taliban's reserves may be small arms. It is relatively easy to use, maintain and transport. The Taliban have long had access to small arms, so the acquisition of M4 and M16, Kalashnikov assault rifles and heavy machine guns will not lead to a significant increase in their capabilities, although it will increase stocks. If the Taliban finds itself in a particularly difficult financial situation as it becomes isolated, it may turn to the sale of small arms in search of quick money.
Armored vehicles and artillery pieces are also valuable acquisitions for the Taliban. Vehicles or armored personnel carriers with mine protection against ambushes will present a new type of combat support systems for the Taliban, which can play an important role in the fighting in the coming years. Unlike aviation, given the number of abandoned vehicles and the lower level of necessary technical support, the withdrawal of some vehicles for the maintenance of others is quite an appropriate option.
It is noteworthy that the Afghan Kunduz regularly hosts reviews and military parades of the Taliban forces, where the M1117 armored personnel carrier of American production is shown. The Taliban are actively demonstrating everything they got from the United States and have not yet been sold to Pakistan. According to experts, if the armored personnel carriers do not meet the requirements of the Afghan movement command, Greece and Colombia may become buyers of equipment.
Some of the more advanced technical devices, including night vision devices or other special equipment, may also be of value to the Taliban. The ability to fight at night is a huge advantage on the battlefield, although maintaining a sufficient number of night vision devices can be problematic.
Reports that the Taliban have also seized biometric devices are of concern to American experts. But the risks can be reduced due to the lack of technical support systems for storing such devices.
Finally, despite concerns that the weapons and equipment left behind by the ANDSF may become a subject for hunting by the intelligence services of US rival countries, including Russia or China, most of the items that were left behind are not high-tech. American experts conclude that foreign intelligence services are probably already familiar with all the most advanced systems sent by ANDSF, including Blackhawk helicopters.
The Taliban experience
Representatives of the Taliban movement continue to increase the combat capabilities of their units by arming advanced models of the Air Force. They are increasingly using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for civilian purposes in the interests of surveillance and shooting propaganda videos.
Even before the return of the country under the control of the Taliban, they began to actively apply new tactics using UAVs. Initially, the tactics of the "Islamic State" (banned in Russia) in Syria and Iraq were borrowed. The most technically advanced Taliban militants equipped inexpensive and commercially available drones with explosive devices and used them to strike targeted targets.
In October 2020, the Taliban dropped explosives from a UAV on the territory of the governor's residence in Kunduz province. At least four people were killed and eight were injured. According to open sources, this terrorist attack was the first known strike by the Taliban in Afghanistan using UAVs. UAV strikes were also reported in the provinces of Baghlan, Balkh, Paktia, Logar and Faryab. And on January 15, 2021, the Taliban used UAVs to drop ammunition at a military base in Kunduz. As a result of the explosion, two Afghan soldiers were wounded and an army helicopter was damaged.
According to observers from NATO countries, it remains unclear why the Taliban began arming civilian drones at their disposal only at the end of 2020. However, this coincided with the intensification of attacks on Afghan government forces, despite peace talks between the warring parties. So far, the impact of the use of UAVs by Taliban militants on the course of hostilities in the country remains insignificant. However, the psychological impact on the enemy in modern warfare comes out on top and will have a greater effect than the direct impact of ammunition dropped from the UAV.
In the Taliban's attempt to arm small-sized civilian UAVs, there is a borrowing of tactics from more militarily developed countries. The Americans have repeatedly used Predator and Reaper UAVs armed with Hellfire missiles to destroy the Taliban themselves in Afghanistan and Pakistan. These UAVs, the cost of each of which exceeds $ 4 million, are able to operate at a distance of up to 700 km from the base and stay in the air for more than a day.
It is difficult to predict to what extent the Taliban will continue to use commercial UAVs. There are several hundred different detection and interception systems for small-sized UAVs on the arms market - from silencers to laser systems or high-power microwave emitters. But by October 2021, the technical aspect of countering UAVs in Central Asian countries has not yet been fully resolved, given that the cost of such systems used for the defense of large territories can amount to millions of dollars.
Additional concerns are caused by the fact of the appearance of new helicopter-type UAVs in the videos that representatives of the Taliban post on social networks.
Sad results
The rearmament of the Taliban movement entails the emergence of new challenges to international security related to the illegal import/export of conventional weapons. As a result, the international community can observe the following long-term trends:
1. Increasing the level of technical equipment will allow the Taliban to more effectively counteract other groups that are planning terrorist acts against the country's infrastructure facilities.
2. Taking into account the peculiarities of the armed struggle in Afghanistan, the Taliban is likely to actively use high-power improvised explosive devices and mortars of various calibers. Wheeled armored vehicles and even tracked armored personnel carriers of the M113 type do not provide units with an adequate level of protection.
3. With the withdrawal of NATO member countries from Afghanistan, Western-made weapons will be at the disposal of designers of defense enterprises of several states that are actively working on new models of the military-industrial complex, and in the hands of extremists, since the leadership of the Taliban movement has not taken responsibility for fulfilling obligations to block the actions of other groups even on the territory of Afghanistan.
4. Thanks to modern information technologies, namely social networks, programs for the transmission of encrypted messages, etc., Islamist groups around the world will be able to coordinate their actions and more effectively use the weapons of mass destruction that they will receive from the Taliban movement at quite adequate prices or within the framework of "fraternal assistance to Muslims fighting for freedom."
Larisa Shashok
Larisa Aleksandrovna Shashok is a teacher at MGIMO (U) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.