The author writes with concern about the integration of the armed forces of Russia and Belarus. Minsk plans to buy S-400 and new air defense systems, Russian helicopters and aircraft. Belarus does not have money for the S-400,but the complexes may appear there in the event of the creation of a Russian base. Poland is very concerned about this fact.
You should pay attention to the words of Major General Igor Golub
The Belarusian official news agency BelTA published a statement by the commander of the Air Defense Forces, Major General Igor Golub, which was also marked on the website of the Belarusian defense Ministry. Poland should pay attention to these words.
Exercises to destroy air targets
The Belarusian military officer spoke about the beginning of exercises to intercept low-speed air targets (drones), however, first of all attention is drawn to another part of his speech. He mentioned the rearmament of the divisions of the anti-aircraft missile forces, which have Russian S-300 complexes, but are going to switch to the use of S-400 and ZRPK "Pantsir-S". In addition, Golub spoke about the supply of Mi-35 attack helicopters and Su-30SM fighters, as well as testing new airborne defense systems, the use of which, according to him, will significantly increase the level of protection of the units under his command. The website of the Belarusian Ministry of Defense reported that preparations are underway to conclude a contract for the supply of S-400.
Talks about the integration of the armed forces of Russia and Belarus
These reports have revived the ongoing discussion in the circles of Belarusian and international military analysts on the integration of the armed forces of Russia and Belarus. It becomes all the more relevant because, as you know, in September the main stage of the strategic exercises "West-2021" should begin, preceded by preparatory maneuvers of a smaller scale. From the reports that appeared about their scenario, it follows that, in particular, they will work out the interception of air targets (drones or swarms of drones), as well as the transfer of special forces over long distances.
Recently, the Russian military practiced in the Kaliningrad region to repel an attack from Poland using Mi-24 helicopters. There is another interesting detail: more than 50% of the maneuvers recently conducted by the Baltic Fleet and the 11th Army Corps stationed in the region were devoted to military operations conducted at night.
Let us return, however, to the statement of Major General Igor Golub. It gets a special sound against the background of what Alexander Lukashenko said about the supply of modern weapons from Russia earlier, in Sochi. From the November interview of Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin to the Belarus 1 TV channel, it followed that we are talking about Russian Mi-35M helicopters, BTR-82a, as well as Su-30SM fighters. The Belarusian authorities signed contracts for the supply of this equipment during the military-technical forum "Army" in the second half of August last year.
Both the scale of the purchases and the fact that Minsk decided to sign the agreement amid public protests led to the conclusion that Belarus was ready to strengthen not only political, but also military ties with Moscow. The policy of increasing dependence in the military sphere was also confirmed by bits of information that appeared after Minister Shoigu's visit to Minsk in September 2020. Then, two days after the meeting with Putin, Lukashenko said that he had asked the Kremlin to supply him with new types of weapons.
Now things have started to take a new, much more serious turn. Belarus cannot afford to buy Russian S-400 systems. According to unofficial information, the cost of one of their batteries is equal to the annual budget of the Belarusian defense ministry, therefore, if the information is confirmed, purchases will be made on credit. Russia, which sold S-400s to Turkey and China, was in no hurry to start deliveries to Belarus for this reason, and also because it was not sure of Lukashenka's loyalty. In addition, as one of the leading independent Belarusian military experts, Alexander Alesin, noted in early January, the S-400 and Iskander systems (we can also talk about their delivery) are already in the Kaliningrad region: their task is to protect the Belarusian airspace. What would be the purpose of their appearance in Belarus in this context?
One theory is that such a move would make sense if the Russians created an air base in Belarus. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke openly about this intention in 2019. These weapons would be needed to protect it (as in the case of the Syrian base Khmeimim, which the Russians protect just with the help of S-400 and "Pantsir-S"). One of the options for such a solution could be, for example, the creation of a new or expansion of the existing base for the placement of Su-30SM supplied to Belarusians, which could also be used "on a rotational basis" by Russians. They would protect it with the help of the latest Russian systems, and those, apparently, would be under the control of Moscow. So, if General Golub's words are confirmed, we will be dealing with a significant deterioration in the strategic situation near the Polish border and an increase in the Russian military presence in Belarus.
It is not only Poland that is in danger
It is not only Poland that is in danger. No less, and perhaps even more, the development of events may worry Lithuania. I do not know if this was a coincidence, but on the website of the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense there was a message about the negotiations of Deputy Defense Minister Margiris Abukevicius with the US Ambassador to Vilnius, Robert Gilchrist. One of the topics discussed was the change in the status of the 3rd battalion of the 3rd Infantry Division of the United States, that is, the prospect of its deployment not on a rotational basis, but on a permanent basis. This, of course, is a signal addressed to Minsk and Moscow in the framework of the so-called strategic communication. We are also dealing with a similar signal in the case of the Swedish armed Forces. The Swedish Defense Ministry recently posted on its YouTube page a series of videos dedicated to the fight with Russia for the Arctic called " When the war begins." If Major General Golub's reports turn out to be true, it may indeed be just around the corner.
Budzich Marek (Marek Budzisz)
