The fall of Armenia was predetermined by technical failure
By the time the Azerbaijani forces entered the area of the strategically important city of Fizuli, the Armenian defense deployed near the border had ceased to exist. The remaining machine-gun and artillery units in the fortified areas began to leave their positions and retreat.
Surprisingly, heavy losses of automobile equipment became critical for the Armenian Armed forces. Trucks "KAMAZ", "GAZ" and "Ural" were the main vehicle of machine-gun and artillery units, without them they lost mobility and were forced to move on foot – without heavy weapons.
In the first hours of the fighting, the Azerbaijani command began a targeted hunt for motor vehicles. Most likely, Baku was able to correctly assess the experience of fighting in the spring of 2016 and understand that trucks are the Achilles ' heel of the Armenian Armed forces.
The low service culture also affected the decline of the car fleet. The Armenian units left a large number of faulty trucks at the points of permanent deployment, as well as at the positions during the retreat. The official YouTube channel of the Azerbaijani military Department published several stories showing captured Armenian military towns. In the footage, you can see several dozen abandoned faulty cars.
At the beginning of the conflict, there were reports of Russia moving additional military equipment to Armenia. It was believed that it was intended for the 102nd military base of the Russian armed forces. Judging by the published footage, it was about dozens of trucks of the KAMAZ and Ural families.
It is possible that some of the equipment may have been transferred to the Armenian military. If this was done, the trucks had to compensate for the heavy losses of the truck fleet in the first days of the war.
Demise of mobile forces
By the beginning of the assault on Fizuli, the Armenian command began to concentrate forces for a counter-attack, which was launched from the North along the axis of the Stepanakert-Martuni-Fizuli highway, as well as in the South near the Khudafri reservoir. In the area of Fuzuli, the terrain gave certain advantages To the armed forces of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. The units participating in the counteroffensive were located on high ground, while the Azerbaijani companies and battalions were concentrated in the lowlands. Also, the mountainous terrain allowed the Armenian formations to conduct a concentration of troops secretly for the intelligence of Azerbaijan.
There is a version that the immediate goal of the Armenian counteroffensive was to liberate Fuzuli. With a favorable outcome, the command of the NKR armed forces expected to reach the Iranian border.
In this case, the Azerbaijani group advancing in the South would be split into two parts. At the same time, it was possible to expect the formation of a cauldron, which would include parts and divisions of the Azerbaijani armed forces operating West of the Fizuli-Goradiz-Iranian border line.
But now, when information about the course of the fighting was published during the political crisis in Armenia, it becomes clear that the armed forces of the NKR simply did not have enough forces for such large-scale actions. Most likely, the liberation of the city of Fuzuli was not even part of the plan of the Armenian counterattack. A few battered motorized rifle battalions and two tank battalions would not have been able to withstand a clash with Azerbaijani forces.
The calculation was based on buying time for machine-gun and artillery units retreating from the former contact line. The command of the armed forces of Nagorny krabakh planned to use these forces to fill the second line. Its fortifications were located in the Lachin corridor, around Stepanakert and on the approaches to Shusha. Due to the failure of the mobilization plan, the Armenian Armed forces at that time did not have enough forces to fully occupy these borders.
The Armenian counteroffensive lasted for two days. To support it, the command of the NKR armed forces was able to assemble a sufficiently powerful artillery fist from several divisions of 2S1 and 2S3 self-propelled howitzers, as well as Grad multiple launch rocket systems.
On the morning of October 17, the first day of the counteroffensive, several Armenian motorized rifle battalions engaged Azerbaijani advance detachments in the North-West of Fuzuli near the route to Martuni. So far, neither Yerevan nor Baku has published accurate information about the course of those clashes. But we can assume that the Armenian infantry managed to shoot down several Azerbaijani posts and begin to bypass Fizuli.
By the evening, the Armenian defense Ministry made a statement that they had managed to stop the Azerbaijani offensive. At the same time, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinin even managed to report that Azerbaijani units were surrounded near the Iranian border. However, the Armenian leader promised to provide evidence of such a major success later.
On the night of October 17-18, the Armenian forces engaged a full-blooded tank battalion. Tankers occurred in the area Hodarinova reservoir. But unlike the Marines in the Fuzuli area, the tankers were less fortunate. The battalion was hit by drones, multiple launch rocket systems, and long-range anti-tank missile systems. A video released by the Azerbaijani defense Ministry shows the defeat of the Armenian tankers. In a matter of minutes, the Azerbaijani military managed to destroy about a dozen T-72 tanks.
On the morning of October 18, Azerbaijani units launched an offensive. By the evening, the Armenian motorized skirmishers at Fizuli suffered heavy losses and were pushed back to their original positions. In the South, after the death of a tank battalion, the Armenian side could not contain the Azerbaijani attacks in the area of the reservoir. Therefore, the remaining forces and units were forced to retreat to the West and withdraw to the Armenian border with Nagorno-Karabakh.
On the evening of October 18, the Armenian side's victorious statements were replaced by complaints that Baku continued fighting in violation of the humanitarian truce. As a result of an unsuccessful counterattack, the Chinese armed forces lost their last mobile units. Artillery units also suffered serious losses. Azerbaijan published a video showing the destruction of more than a dozen self-propelled and towed artillery installations, as well as multiple rocket launchers.
However, during the fighting, several Armenian scattered machine-gun and artillery units managed to get out of the Azerbaijani rear. Without rest or replenishment, they were sent to fortified areas on the outskirts of Shushi. Later, retired motorized rifle battalions of the mobile forces retreated there.
Rush to the Lachin corridor
After the completion of the Armenian counteroffensive, the Azerbaijani command had several opportunities. The first one is to go along the highway to Martuni, then to Shushi, or immediately move to Stepanakert.
In the South, Azerbaijani units could strike due North and reach the Lachin corridor. But Baku decided not to rush. Instead of decisive attacks, the Azerbaijani military gradually began to occupy localities in the Fuzuli region. In the South, they launched an offensive towards the border of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. Its goal was to complete the defeat of the southern group of the Armenian Armed forces and push its remnants out of the Republic.
By October 20, Azerbaijani units had completed their task in the border area and launched an offensive to the North. Its goal was the locality of Kubatli. Already on October 23, the Armenian side recognized that this locality was lost.
Since the failure of the counteroffensive, the armed forces of Nagorno-Karabakh have thrown all their forces to strengthen the approaches to the Lachin corridor. Almost all units and units that were mobilized by this time were involved in its defense.
On October 23, Azerbaijani units launched an offensive towards the locality of Lachin. By October 27, the Azerbaijani Armed forces were able to break through part of the Armenian defense lines during persistent fighting. Lachin was only a few kilometers away. But the Azerbaijani Armed forces failed to completely overcome their defensive positions. Their units stopped the Armenian fortifications in the lower reaches of the river Bargoed.
On October 28, Azerbaijani forces began advancing towards Shusha. Unexpectedly for the Armenian side, not tank and infantry units, but mobile assault groups went into battle. They moved not along the Martuni-Shusha and Fuzuli-Stepanakert highways, but along the mountains between these roads. Therefore, the Armenian command initially did not perceive these movements as a possible danger, continuing to believe that the main efforts of Azerbaijan are concentrated in the area of the Lachin corridor.
But on November 1, Azerbaijani mobile groups suddenly attacked Martuni. According to the available information, the task of taking the city was not assigned to the units of the Azerbaijani armed forces. They were supposed to bind the Armenian forces. On the next day, the assault groups dislodged the NKR units from their positions around Martuni. On November 3, Azerbaijani motorized rifle and tank units approached the city. Infantry and tankers allowed the release of the assault groups, which continued to advance on Shushi.
By November 5, the Azerbaijani command managed to withdraw its mobile assault groups to the Shushi area. Moreover, Azerbaijani stormtroopers were able to block the roads leading to the city. Despite the accumulation of enemy forces around Shusha, the Armenian command continued to believe that this was a distraction. The General staff of the NKR armed forces assumed that the Azerbaijani infantry would not be able to cope with the Armenian units without significant support from tanks, artillery and drones.
But already on November 6, Azerbaijani assault groups, using night time and terrain folds, shot down Armenian units on the approaches to Shushi with a surprise attack. Then they entered the city. It should be noted that the Shushi garrison seriously outnumbered the enemy. The Armenian units were armed with combat vehicles, infantry, and tanks. In turn, the Azerbaijani assault groups had only anti-tank missile launchers from heavy weapons.
On October 7, the Armenian command finally realized that the Azerbaijani offensive towards the Lachin corridor was a distraction. The decisive battle unfolded in Shushi. We must pay tribute to the armed forces of the NKR – the measures were taken promptly. The deployed artillery units did not allow the Azerbaijani tank and motorized rifle battalions and companies to advance from Martuni towards Shusha. To suppress the Azerbaijani artillery was even applied to the operational-tactical complex "Iskander".
But on the night of November 7 to 8, Azerbaijani assault groups were able to clear Shushi. By this time, the Armenian garrison had already lost heart. It was based on the remnants of machine-gun and artillery companies and battalions that held positions on the first line of defense. On foot, under the blows of Azerbaijani forces, they made their way to the Armenian positions.
On the morning of October 8, the Armenian units were disorganized and left Shushi. On the same day, the Azerbaijani command left several units to isolate Martuni. This allowed the transfer of armored vehicles and the main part of the artillery to Shushi. By the evening, a fist of several tank and motorized rifle battalions was formed there. They were supported by the divisions of barreled artillery and jet systems of volley fire. The task of this group was to capture Stepanakert.
The Armenian side no longer had a reason to counter this threat. Mobile forces were lost in the October counteroffensive. And the main part of the machine-gun and artillery companies and battalions were connected by fighting in the area of the Lachin corridor.
Azerbaijan was expected to launch a decisive offensive on Stepanakert on November 9. But there was no blow. And on the night of November 9-10, a truce was brokered by Russia.
Alexey Ramm
Alexey Mikhailovich Ramm – military expert.
