Dmitry Litovkin-whether the fear of a large-scale conflict is justified
Image source: © AP Photo/Gemunu Amarasinghe
First, the chief of the British defense Staff, Nick Carter, and then the Czech intelligence service, in their annual report, said that the world is on the verge of a global cataclysm. For the British, it can be caused by "anxiety and uncertainty", as well as" regional conflicts " that give a wrong idea of security. Czechs are more specific. For them, the fuse for a new global war may be the "abuse of advanced technologies". A military conflict can be triggered by cyber attacks or an attack using civilian unmanned aerial vehicles, which attackers can easily convert into combat vehicles.
Fallout as a premonition
In English, the word fallout has many meanings, but the closest to it is our Russian word - "krants". Neologism, a colloquial expression meaning the unfortunate end of something. In this case, it is life after the nuclear Apocalypse. This topic is very popular in America, as well as in our country. The same Fallout is a series of post-apocalyptic computer role-playing games. We have S. T. A. L. K. E. R. and Metro. All of them tell about human survival after a nuclear disaster. In the 60-ies of the last century for Americans and us, this topic was so pressing that in the United States promoted the construction of individual shelters, but we at school were taught to fall correctly to the ground and cover the head with hands when the "flash left flash right". However, it is obvious that in both cases it would not have been possible to survive in the conditions of a global military confrontation.
Nick Carter rightly points out that "the risk is that several regional conflicts are unfolding at once. Escalation leads to an incorrect assessment of the current situation - this is what we must protect ourselves from." According to him, it was miscalculations in the analysis of the situation in the world that "led to two world wars in the last century."
"Decision makers sometimes do not understand the consequences of their actions, which leads to increased tension. This means that more and more people are involved in military conflicts, and more and more diverse weapons are being used. And such a course of events is already difficult to stop, which ultimately leads to a full - scale war," Carter emphasizes.
The Czechs, in turn, claim that " the world is still at the first stage of preparation. There is a formation of thinking of those who will be able and willing to actively join it. Gradually, the technical means with which it can be conducted are determined. If we are not able to anticipate and evaluate the negative consequences of our own actions, then an erroneous instruction or order can create processes that will lead to our mutual destruction."
Eye for eye
Signs of possible trouble are really discernible today. They can be seen in the ease with which arms limitation agreements are destroyed. As part of the expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance, the Treaty on conventional weapons in Europe fell. It once regulated the number of tanks and other armored vehicles in the "buffer zone": Poland, the Baltic States and their borders with Russia. The ABM agreement has sunk into Oblivion. And now, instead of one position area for missiles capable of intercepting attacking nuclear warheads in Alaska and near Moscow, we have added two more: in Romania's Deveselu and Poland's redzikovo. After the denunciation Of the Treaty on intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles, not only anti-missiles can be placed on launchers in these localities, but also strike weapons that can reach any administrative or industrial facility in Russia in a few minutes.
MiG-31 fighter-interceptor with an aeroballistic complex "Dagger"
Image source: © Alexey Nikolsky / press service of the President of the Russian Federation/TASS
Moscow is considering retaliatory actions. The Iskander-M operational-tactical complex with the 9m729 cruise missile can be deployed in the Kaliningrad region. Although what is there, high-altitude interceptors MiG-31 with an aeroballistic complex "Dagger", and this is an analog of the" Iskander", only in the air version, are already in service with the southern military district. The range of the aircraft covers the whole of Europe.
The last Treaty related to the need to avoid the Apocalypse, start - 3, is also bursting at the seams. Donald trump did not decide to re-sign him in the run-up to the election. Probably, he was afraid that again he would be accused of Pro-Russian sympathies. Joe Biden is essentially a hawk and will not take this step either. More than $1.5 trillion has already been invested in modernizing the us nuclear forces. Within 30 years, this money should be completely replaced by nuclear submarines of the "Ohio" type, which will be replaced by the "Columbia" nuclear submarines. The air force will receive a new strategic bomber B-21 "raider". In addition, all 400-plus aging Minuteman-3 missiles will be replaced with a new promising carrier. To top it all off, the us air force will receive a new strategic cruise missile with a nuclear charge.
Image of the b-21 "raider" strategic bomber"
Image source: © U.S. Air Force via AP
However, we also have, remembering the classic, "revolvers will be found". The Avangard hypersonic nuclear unit and the Sarmat heavy ballistic missile, which can deliver megatons of nuclear explosives to the other hemisphere, do not add cheerfulness to the overseas military and US citizens, despite any NPRO. Russia is ready to include both in the new agreement on the limitation of strategic offensive arms. However, we have even more serious things in our Arsenal: the Petrel nuclear missile of unlimited range and the Poseidon nuclear drone. The second submarine-the carrier of six of these strategic drones-will be launched in the first half of 2021.
Low power
Another Wake - up call is Finland's recent decision. A country with which Russia has been linked only to buying real estate and exclusive fishing in recent decades, suddenly decided to buy 64 fifth-generation f-35 fighter jets from the United States for $12.5 billion. Plus, 50 F/A-18E fighters, eight F/A-18F and 14 EA-18G electronic warfare aircraft for a total of $27.2 billion . In the global arms market, this is not just a sensation, it's like a nuclear explosion in the middle of the desert. But it's not just the fact of a big deal.
F-35-carrier of American B61-12 nuclear bombs. In Europe, according to some reports, there are about 200 of them at bases in Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany and Turkey. It would be nice if they were just lying there. But the Americans are actively teaching their partners how to handle these weapons. Just in October, the Russian foreign Ministry informed the German military attache that the NATO exercises Steadfast Noon and Resilient Guard, during which elements of the use of American tactical nuclear weapons were practiced, were unacceptable. "The military attache was told that the involvement of personnel and dual-use aircraft of non - nuclear NATO member countries, one of which is Germany, in working out scenarios for the use of nuclear weapons is a gross violation of the Treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Such actions lead to a lower threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, provoke a further increase in tension along the Russia - NATO contact line and negatively affect the level of confidence in Europe, " the Ministry stressed. And, perhaps, the Finns are not aware that now all the Iskander complexes in the Leningrad region are most likely looking not only at the Balts, but also at them.
At the same time, the US state Department and the Pentagon say that the agreements with Finland do not pose a threat to "the main military balance in the region." And Helsinki is silent. Perhaps to avoid revealing the true reasons for agreeing to such an expensive deal (which may just relate to the fear of a global conflict), as well as to get rid of the fierce pressure from Washington and Brussels demanding that Suomi join the North Atlantic Alliance.
Vigorous world
The meeting on security issues in Sochi, where the Russian President, in particular, said that we have built a "new control point for strategic nuclear forces", the margin of safety of which will be "exceptionally high", corresponds to the logic of the growing confrontation with the West. Especially in the context of the fact that Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving the Basics of state policy in the field of nuclear deterrence. It States that the Framework is a strategic defense planning document that reflects official views on our approach to nuclear weapons. Russia considers the latter exclusively as a deterrent, " the use of which is an extreme and forced measure." Moscow is making "all necessary efforts to reduce the nuclear threat and prevent the aggravation of interstate relations that could provoke military conflicts, including nuclear ones," the document says.
At the same time, Russia takes into account the deployment of hypersonic and laser weapons, missiles and attack UAVs by a potential enemy. He also considers the creation and deployment of missile DEFENSE systems and strike systems in space a danger that requires nuclear deterrence to neutralize. The emergence of the Foundations is Russia's reaction to the scrapping of the system of international treaties by the United States related to arms control and military activities, as well as Washington's return to the practice of intimidating and blackmailing the world community with the possibility of resuming nuclear tests.
In conclusion, Nick Carter and Czech intelligence are right: we are losing our global understanding of security. Today, it also consists of fighting international terrorism, countering COVID-19, non-proliferation of missile and nuclear technologies, and much more mundane things, such as controlling migration. This is what leads to the fact that no new "Berlin walls" appear and the world is truly "without borders".
