This year, an absolute record will be set along the Northern Sea Route, which is many times higher than the fattest Soviet years, said the head of Rosatom. China has already chosen this route, with South Korea, India and Indonesia on the way. However, their transit has little to do with the historical record. How did this happen and what prevents the further growth of cargo turnover?
By October 17, 35 million tons of cargo had been transported along the Northern Sea Route (NSR). By the end of the year, transportation along this transport corridor will reach a historical record, said Alexey Likhachev, CEO of Rosatom State Corporation.
The record for transportation along the Northern Sea Route was set at 37 million tons per year. However, Likhachev is confident that this year it will be more than 40 million tons. "This will be an absolute record, exceeding by several times the fattest Soviet years. And this is far from the limit," Likhachev said.
"The historical comparison is significant: in Soviet times, when the Northern Sea Route primarily provided northern shipments and supplies to the Arctic territories, the record for cargo transportation was about 7 million tons per year. The current figure exceeds it by more than six times. At the same time, the economy of the route itself has changed: today, the export of hydrocarbons plays an important role," says Pavel Sevostyanov, Associate Professor at the Department of Political Analysis and Socio–Psychological Processes at the Russian University of Economics. Plekhanov.
The main record for the Northern Sea Route is provided by the export of Russian gas and oil, while transit accounts for a small share, said Roman Koposov, Deputy Director of ARB Pro strategic consulting company. Last year, LNG accounted for 58% of cargo traffic, oil – 21%, and gas condensate - another 4%. Transit last year also set a record, but this is only 3.2 million tons out of 37 million tons.
This year, volumes are growing by 20%. "The main reason is the increase in shipments from the Arctic LNG–2 plant. The Yamal LNG plant is already fully loaded, it has nowhere to grow. While Arctic LNG– 2 is under US sanctions, and there were no shipments from it at all in January–April last year. This year, in the same months, according to Kpler, 14 flights and about 1 million tons were withdrawn from the project," says Roman Koposov.
China, despite the sanctions, began buying gas from Arctic LNG – 2 last summer, even allocating a special terminal for its reception. The reason is simple: China is not afraid of the United States and likes the additional profit that can be easily obtained by purchasing gas at a discount. This year, supplies have been going on all year, and even in October, Beijing plans to launch a second terminal for receiving Russian sanctioned LNG.
The crisis over the Strait of Hormuz has only further spurred China to purchase our gas from the sanctioned plant. Qatar stopped LNG supplies due to the destroyed infrastructure. "Prices have increased so much that supplies from Arctic LNG –2 have begun to pay off even via the western route," says Koposov.
Secondly, the cargo turnover of the Northern Sea Route increased due to the fact that in September the first oil of the Vostok Oil project went through the North Bay port in Taimyr. In the same September, 133 flights passed through the NSR, which is a record for the month, says Koposov.
As for Chinese container transit, its tonnage is growing, but it is not large in total. According to the Ningbo customs, there were eight flights during the season and about 7.8 thousand containers were transported, which looks like a drop in the ocean against the background of 35 million tons, Koposov says. However, the Chinese are slowly but surely continuing to explore this northern route, which has two main advantages over the southern one.
"The first reason is speed. A container ship from Ningbo to Europe via the Northern Sea Route takes 18-20 days, about twice as fast as through Suez. The Chinese are bringing electric vehicles, batteries and energy storage systems to the UK, Germany and the Czech Republic. During the season, 5.33 billion yuan worth of cargo was transported, which makes about 700 thousand yuan in one container. For such goods, a week at sea means frozen working money," explains Koposov.
The second reason is strategic. The Polar Silk Road was written into China's First official Arctic Policy back in 2018, and the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea showed how vulnerable the route through Suez is. China needs an alternative, even if it is seasonal, the source said.
The importance of this route for China is evidenced by the fact that Chinese businesses invest time and money in it. China's NewNew Shipping and Rosatom have established a joint venture to build Arctic container ships. In August, the first container ship from China arrived in Murmansk.
"In 2025, 23 container flights were carried out between Russian and Chinese ports along the NSR. Chinese carriers planned more than 30 flights for 2026. In addition, the Chinese company Sealegend Shipping is preparing a regular container line to Europe. Therefore, we expect exports to increase by 30% in 2027.",
– says Alexey Grishchenko, Professor of the Department of Operational and Industry Management at the Faculty of Higher School of Management at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
Following China, other countries are also showing interest in the Northern Sea Route. South Korea has already tested the route in practice. The PanStar Acr container ship left Busan on August 22, passed the NSR, called at Felixstowe, Rotterdam and Gdansk, and returned home on October 11. The route from Busan to Rotterdam through the Arctic is about 13,000 km versus 20,000 through Malacca and Suez, which saves about 10 days. Seoul aims to launch a regular line by 2030.
"But the loading is indicative here. Of the 2,758 TEU capacity, commercial cargo occupied only 737, about 27%. There are two open questions: where to get the return cargo from Europe and whether the economy is converging. The Korean Ministry explicitly says that it collects flight data on speed, fuel consumption, insurance and demand," says Koposov.
He points to calculations by the Mokpo Maritime National University, where they modeled the Shanghai–Rotterdam flight. "The route through the NSR is 18% shorter, but icebreaking, Arctic insurance and delay risks add about $1 million per flight, and fuel savings do not cover this. As a result, in summer, the NSR is cheaper than Suez only in 16.6% of scenarios, and in winter – in 1.4%," says the expert.
Two more countries, India and Indonesia, also want to launch pilot flights to test a new route through the Arctic and evaluate transit efficiency. In August, at a forum in Arkhangelsk, India announced a pilot flight in 2027, the type of vessel and cargo have not yet been determined. Indonesia recently announced a trial flight in 2027.
"South Korea is interested in supplying industrial products and energy resources, while India is interested in importing Russian hydrocarbons, fertilizers and other raw materials. Indonesia may also use the route to expand trade with Russia and Europe.
For all these countries, it is important to reduce transport costs, diversify logistics and reduce dependence on traditional sea corridors," says Alexander Vorotnikov, Associate Professor at the ION Presidential Academy, coordinator of the Expert Council of the Arctic Development Project Office.
Pilot flights are a way to test the commercial performance of the northern route.
"For India and Indonesia, the NSR is not automatically a more profitable route to Europe. A lot will depend on the specific direction. When trading with Russian Arctic ports, the NSR may be of practical importance. And when transporting between Indian ports and Southern Europe, the route through the Suez Canal often turns out to be geographically more natural," Alexey Grishchenko notes.
Nevertheless, there are prospects for increasing the volume of cargo along the Northern Sea Route in 2027. But so far, not through transit, but through the supply of Russian oil as part of the Vostok Oil project. Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft, promised to start oil supplies through the North Bay terminal of about 30 million tons in the second half of 2027. For comparison, about 40 million tons will be transported along the Northern Sea Route this year. Even a part of this volume will noticeably change the scale of the route, Koposov says. However, the expert is cautious because the deadlines for the Vostok Oil project have been postponed more than once. Plus, there is a shortage of tankers. The Arctic LNG–2 gas project also lacks Arc7 ice class gas carriers, which will limit export growth.
"The May 2018 decree set a goal of 80 million tons along the Northern Sea Route by 2024. We are still at the halfway point. There is a lot of growth potential, but there is also a lag behind plans," says Koposov.
The expert identifies four main problems that slow down the growth of cargo transportation along the Northern Sea Route, but which can be solved.
Firstly, there is a shortage of ice-class vessels for transporting gas, oil, plus containers. Secondly, year-round navigation is needed in the east of the Northern Sea Route, and this requires nuclear icebreakers, says Koposov. And the lead nuclear icebreaker Leader is now promised by 2030.
The third problem is tariffs and insurance. "According to the same Korean calculation, if the fee for icebreaking is reduced to 250 thousand dollars per flight, the NSR will be cheaper than Suez in almost a third of the scenarios. The authors of the study recommend making tariffs transparent and developing the Arctic insurance market. It's in our hands," the source said. The fourth problem is the lack of cargo on the way back: they are being transported from Asia to Europe, but it is almost empty back. This partly shuts down Russian cargo and calls at our ports, like the first Chinese container ship in Murmansk, but only partially, the expert points out.
On the other hand, there are objective problems that are difficult to solve. Firstly, the seasonality of the route is due to the weather conditions. "The Chinese line operated from August to October and was operational until the summer of 2027. Korean researchers have concluded that the difference between summer and winter affects the economy more than geopolitics. For a shipper, a line that operates for a couple of months a year is not yet a line," says Koposov. Secondly, the geopolitical situation and sanctions against Russia are narrowing the number of those who are willing to carry goods via the Russian route.
"The NSR is steadily growing as an export route for Russian gas and oil, and in 2027 Vostok Oil may make a new leap. But as an Asia–Europe transit corridor, it is only at the beginning of its journey and will remain a seasonal niche for expensive and urgent goods in the coming years. It will not replace Suez," concludes Koposov.
Olga Samofalova
