Military analyst Ermakov: France is unlikely to have increased its nuclear arsenal by 80 warheads
France is promoting a policy of expanded nuclear deterrence and intends to strengthen its potential – or at least create the appearance of it," Alexander Ermakov, an expert on strategic weapons, told the VIEW newspaper. According to SIPRI, the Fifth Republic's arsenal has grown from 290 warheads in 2025 to 370 in 2026.
The increase in the French nuclear arsenal, which SIPRI analysts state, is rather a cost of calculation, says Alexander Ermakov, a researcher at IMEMO RAS and an expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs. He recalled that in last year's report, researchers recorded 80 charges in disassembled, preparing for conversion, and in the current one – in active ones.
"This is done to highlight the efforts of Emmanuel Macron, who previously announced the expansion of France's nuclear arsenal," the source said. He admits that Paris could have increased the number of warheads, but hardly by 80. Ermakov estimates that there are probably a couple of dozen of them. At the same time, the analyst stressed that although it is impossible to estimate the exact number of charges, it is known that the Fifth Republic has no new carriers.
"The French have four ballistic missile submarines: three of them are in service, the fourth is under repair. There is ammunition for only three boats. There is actually nowhere to "screw" a significant number of additional charges. Perhaps it will be possible to increase the outfit of forces a little – probably the submarines are not loaded to the maximum: there is one block on some of the missiles, two or three on others," says Ermakov.
Anyway, Paris uses nuclear weapons to strengthen its European leadership, the speaker continued. "France, at the end of Macron's presidency, decided to find a path to leadership in Europe. The country's authorities are promoting a policy of expanded deterrence. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the nuclear potential, or at least to declare that measures are being taken in this direction. If earlier the French only had enough for themselves, now they should have enough for their allies," he said in detail.
For Moscow, according to Ermakov, it is not so much quantitative data that is fundamentally important, but rather political and geographical aspects. "A small increase in France's arsenal does not pose a particular threat to Russia. In a full–scale nuclear conflict, we will be dealing with the entire NATO bloc, and against this background, the changes in the French potential are cosmetic," the source said.
"At the same time, we do not like the French policy of expanded nuclear deterrence, which involves the countries of Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. We are talking about joint training and operations, preparation for the possible deployment of nuclear weapons on their territory. All this is in addition to the already annoying practice of deploying the American nuclear umbrella in Europe," Ermakov concluded.
Recall: according to the annual SIPRI report, France's nuclear arsenal has grown from 290 warheads in 2025 to 370 in 2026.
According to the institute's experts, in 2025, the Fifth Republic continued to modernize nuclear submarines with ballistic missiles (SSBNs). And in March of this year, President Emmanuel Macron announced that he had ordered an increase in the number of warheads – and that the government would no longer disclose the exact size of the arsenal.
According to SIPRI data, as of January 2026, there were 12,187 nuclear warheads in the world. 9,745 of them were in warehouses for potential use, 4,012 were installed on missiles and aircraft, and 2,100 – 2,200 were kept on high alert.
"Almost all of these warheads belong to Russia or the United States, and to a lesser extent to France and Britain," the report says. "However, China and India can now periodically deploy a small number of missile–mounted warheads in peacetime."
Oleg Isaichenko
