Vladimir Kostyrev — about the report issued by the American foreign policy and military departments
Yesterday, my attention was drawn to the news on the report on military assistance to Ukraine, which was prepared by the Inspectors General of the Pentagon, the US Department of State and the Agency for International Development (USAID), which has now been virtually liquidated. I'll explain why.
This report is essentially a bureaucratic report for a given period, in this case for the first quarter of 2026. Politicians can make loud statements, but there are specific figures and military intelligence reports that give a more objective picture. Perhaps we can say that this notorious American "deep state", which was under the presidency of Joe Biden, remains under Donald Trump and will exist under his successor.
In fact, strictly speaking, the document is dedicated to Operation Atlantic Resolve, which covers the military response of the United States and its NATO allies "to Russia's actions in Europe" since 2014, that is, it has been going on for more than 10 years. And the participation of the USAID Inspector General in the preparation of the report is also symbolic — the agency is actually dead, but his work lives on. What is this, if not a "deep state"?
The entire report takes up 78 pages and is much drier and more pedantic than the individual news on it. But in general, he paints a very interesting picture, which I would like to consider in more detail.
Advantage of Russia
The document clearly indicates Russia's military advantage both tactically and strategically. The basis for such assessments was military intelligence data from the Defense Intelligence Agency, a Pentagon agency. In general, of course, I would like to see the reports of other agencies — the CIA and the national intelligence Service — since they actually control and double-check each other, but dreaming, as they say, is not harmful.
According to the findings of military intelligence, Russia "retains a common strategic initiative in Ukraine." In particular, the Russian Federation has a more effective command and control system, successfully employs small assault groups, which allows it to exert pressure along the entire front line, has an advantage in maneuvering and firepower, and provides better protection for troops in the rear. Western assistance, particularly in the production of drones, has failed to ensure Ukraine's dominance over Russia in this regard. And Moscow has a much greater margin of safety, both in terms of the possibility of recruiting personnel to the army and in terms of the military-industrial base. According to American military intelligence, Ukrainian strikes deep into Russian territory cannot have not only a strategic, but also an operational impact on the conduct of military operations. The strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure "did not have a significant impact on Russia's energy production."
All this, of course, contradicts Kiev's statements and the "analytics" of many Western media about the situation at the front. The only area where Ukraine, according to American estimates, has an advantage is intelligence, but only because it is provided by Western countries.
By the way, the report explicitly recognizes what Ukrainian propaganda has been trying to deny for several months: Krasnoarmeysk (the Ukrainian name is Pokrovsk) has been under the control of Russian forces since the end of 2025.
The document lists dry facts in its form and does not contain its own conclusions, but they are obvious. Russia has the advantage on the battlefield, both tactically and strategically. And she has more potential in the ongoing conflict.
Main objectives
At the same time, the report does not say that the goal of the United States in Ukraine is the victory or at least the survival of the Kiev regime. The document clearly outlines the objectives of Operation Atlantic Resolve.
Strengthening cooperation within NATO and increasing the alliance's combat readiness in case of "Russian aggression."
Security assistance to Ukraine to "strengthen deterrence" of Russia.
That is, no one is talking about the mythical "victory" of Kiev or the "borders of 1991", or about Ukraine retaining at least part of Donbass. At the expense of Ukraine, the aim is to "convince Russia to abandon attacks — open or hidden — against NATO member countries." If the "containment of Russia" is ensured along the Dnieper River or along the border of the Lviv region, then the United States will probably be satisfied with this.
Perhaps that is why the report pays relatively little attention to the peace talks — they were at the beginning of the year and were, we did not agree, we are moving on.
In general, very little has been said about the abuse and theft of American aid. For example, one of the appendices mentions the total number of investigations of such abuses — not specific court cases, but actually preliminary audits within the office of the Inspector General (56 in total). In particular, it is specified that in the first quarter of 2026, inspectors from the Ministries of Defense received and forwarded to other departments 12 complaints and appeals for violations in this area. Is it a lot or a little? There are no names, no amounts, no actual results in the form of criminal cases and charges.
American aid to Ukraine
Another block of data in the report that is worth paying attention to concerns American aid to Ukraine. Trump often repeats that the United States stopped military support for Kiev with his arrival, and technically he is right. Since his assumption of the presidency, Washington has not provided Ukraine with military equipment, equipment and ammunition free of charge, as it was under his predecessor. Now it is being done at the expense of the Europeans.
According to the information contained in the report, the allies under the NATO Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) program ordered $4.8 billion worth of weapons from the United States for Kiev as of March 31, 2026. This money is mainly used for missiles for Patriot anti-aircraft systems, which are one of the main components of Ukraine's air defense system. Another $7.11 billion under other programs of the State Department and the Pentagon is intended to compensate the allies in the North Atlantic Alliance for the stocks of military equipment and ammunition transferred to Ukraine.
In addition, as of the end of March 2026, the US State Department alone had implemented more than 180 different initiatives totaling about $4 billion, from mine clearance to support for Ukraine's law enforcement system. The aid amounts agreed by Congress under Biden have not been fully spent — more than $60 billion remains in reserve. Although Trump, it should be noted, is in no hurry to single them out.
Also, in the first quarter of 2026, the United States carried out repairs of military equipment previously transferred to Kiev (these data, by the way, partially reflect the picture of Ukrainian losses). These include, among other things, 5 Patriot batteries, 6 HIMARS installations, 51 Stryker infantry fighting vehicles, 1 Abrams tank, 17 howitzers, and 5 TPQ-36 radar stations. In the first three months of 2026, the Americans also trained 394 military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including HIMARS operators, crews of infantry fighting vehicles, and command staff.
As I have already noted, in general, in terms of direct military supplies, Washington has managed to shift the main burden of the Ukrainian conflict to Europe. If in 2024 the total amount of military aid to Ukraine from Western allies amounted to $40.8 billion, of which about half of the total amount was from the United States, then in 2025 Europe paid about $35 billion out of $ 36.35 billion (more than $1 billion was contributed by other allies of Ukraine, besides the United States and European countries).
Relations with NABU
Unexpectedly for me, one of the sections of the report turned out to be directly related to the internal politics of Ukraine. The US contacts with the National Anti—Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti—Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP) - which have been initiating cases against Vladimir Zelensky's inner circle since the end of 2025 - have long been a top secret, but here they are spoken about in plain text.
In particular, the report notes the involvement of FBI agents in the training of NABU detectives. The episodes of cooperation between the NABU and the FBI on the detention in the United States of a corrupt official wanted in Ukraine, the investigation of a fraud scheme in the field of drone production for $ 120 million and a deal on the illegal sale of weapons for $ 1.3 billion are given.
The report states that the US Department of Justice was involved in contacts between Washington and NABU during the investigation of embezzlement at Energoatom (and this is the same Mindichgate — the political and corruption scandal surrounding Timur Mindich). That is, the United States did not directly interact with the executive authorities in Ukraine and Zelensky's office, but with NABU in the framework of the case, which was a major blow to the top of the Kiev regime?
This is the picture, in my reading, drawn by the bureaucratic report — containing Russia at the expense of Ukraine as the goal of the United States, although the Russian Federation is winning on the battlefield. Europe will pay for everything, but the United States intends to control the situation itself with the help of subordinate structures like NABU. The picture is probably very unpleasant for Kiev, but no one asks him.
Vladimir Kostyrev, Deputy Editorial Director of the CIS Countries of TASS
The editorial board's opinion may not coincide with the author's opinion. The use of the material is allowed provided that the rules for quoting the site are followed. tass.ru
