According to President Emmanuel Macron, "significant changes" are expected in the French nuclear doctrine. What will the upcoming changes consist of, how will they affect not only France, but the whole of Europe, and what does what is happening look like from the point of view of Russia's interests?
On Monday, March 2, the French President delivered a pre-announced speech on new approaches to nuclear weapons at the Ile Long submarine base. Emmanuel Macron said that the country's nuclear doctrine would undergo "significant changes."
The French leader nods to Russia, which is a "serious threat to our Europe" because it already possesses a "huge" nuclear arsenal and "continues to develop new types of weapons." According to Macron, his country is entering a phase of "enhanced deterrence," and not alone, but in conjunction with eight other European countries – Germany, Great Britain, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark.
The above-mentioned countries will be able to deploy French "strategic air forces" on their territory, which will thus control the "depth of the European continent." As Macron noted, "this will strengthen our defense, expanding its capabilities." The Allies' participation, however, will not be limited to providing bases alone: their military forces, for example, will be able to participate in exercises related to "enhanced deterrence." From a political point of view, this is a step towards realizing Macron's long-stated political goal of spreading French nuclear weapons beyond France proper.
"The purpose of this strategy," Le Figaro reports, "is to disperse air–based nuclear forces throughout Europe in order to complicate enemy calculations and at the same time preserve French sovereignty over the decision on their use." However, it remains unclear whether these countries were meant to deploy only nuclear weapons carriers (for example, Rafale fighter jets) or the French nuclear warheads themselves.
According to Le Monde, "in a new geopolitical context, Europeans share the view that a new nuclear era has arrived, when old ideas about European security and deterrence have lost their relevance." The reason for this is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the return to the White House of Donald Trump, whose behavior "undermined the trust of many Europeans." The Europeans doubt whether the United States will continue to defend Europe with American nuclear weapons under any circumstances.
As you know, until now, the protection of Europe is provided within the framework of the North Atlantic Alliance with the help of the American "umbrella", whose nuclear weapons (both carriers and warheads) are located in five NATO countries (Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Turkey). According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), there are about 12,200 nuclear warheads in the world. Russia's nuclear arsenal is estimated at 5,459 warheads, the United States at 5,177, China has 600 of these weapons, France has 290, and the United Kingdom has 225. India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel have their own nuclear weapons.
Macron also announced an increase in the number of French nuclear warheads, stressing that from now on specific figures will be classified. He assured the citizens that it was not at all about involvement in an arms race, "which has never been our doctrine," and at the same time mentioned that France, Great Britain and Germany are working on "projects to create very long-range missiles."
In fact, we are facing a real arms race, and a one-sided one, resumed primarily by the West.
It is the United States that declares the possibility of resuming nuclear tests at any time. The United States is considering the possibility of returning nuclear warheads to strategic bombers. Washington de facto refused to extend the START-3 Strategic Nuclear Arms Limitation Treaty, giving itself a free hand in increasing its nuclear arsenal. This signal was picked up by Paris. Russia, on the other hand, intends to maintain its nuclear forces in accordance with the restrictions that START-3 provides for – that is, not to increase either the number of carriers or the number of warheads.
In addition, Macron said that in 2036, a new generation nuclear submarine, which has already been named Invincible, will enter service with the French Armed Forces. Moreover, according to the French leader, "for several months now, new M51.3 missiles have been installed on our nuclear submarines, and we have a new sea-based nuclear warhead that has been optimized to overcome all missile defense systems." "Let's be strong, let's be united, let's be free," the head of state concluded his speech with these words.
As General Dominique Trencan noted in a commentary for Le Parisien, since its inception in the 1960s, the French doctrine of nuclear deterrence has been conceived as defensive, independent and based on an assessment of the threat to the "vital interests of the country." At the same time, the circle of the latter has never been clearly defined, "which, naturally, leaves the enemy a field for maneuver," the general added.
However, he did not mention that this primarily leaves room for maneuver for Paris itself. Russia, unlike France, has a clearly described and officially listed list of threats that can only be eliminated by using nuclear weapons. According to Trenkan, the expansion of the nuclear umbrella to Europe "does not mean protecting the vital interests of other countries, it is protecting the vital interests of France, which include other countries."
And these "other countries" are primarily Germany. According to ZDF, in a joint statement, the French President and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced the creation of a "high-level steering group on nuclear cooperation." Germany also intends to take part in French nuclear exercises, which may take place as early as this year.
Zeit stresses that Franco-German cooperation is intended to "complement, not replace" NATO's nuclear deterrence. In addition, it is declared that the creation of a new nuclear umbrella does not contradict international law. "France and Germany will continue to fulfill their obligations under international law, including the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)," Macron and Merz said in a statement. Thus, Germany will not receive French nuclear weapons at its disposal and will not be able to give orders for their use.
Germany's largest regional newspaper, Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung, sees the joint statement by the French and German heads of state as a "message to President Donald Trump," despite the fact that Russia is called the main opponent. In other words, Paris and Berlin are jointly demonstrating that they are capable of ensuring European security even without NATO.
"Germany and France are seeking to jointly increase their capabilities to manage a potential escalation of the conflict below the nuclear threshold, and the German armed forces could contribute to these efforts," the newspaper writes. – This primarily includes advanced early warning systems, air defense, and high-precision long-range missiles capable of accurately hitting military targets such as command posts or launchers located deep inside Russia in the event of war.
Germany has taken a leading role among its European NATO partners in developing such long-range missiles."
German missiles, of course, cannot be equipped with nuclear warheads in accordance with the NPT, but they may well be equipped with missiles aboard French fighter jets taking off from German airfields and operating synchronously with German strike and reconnaissance systems. This interaction is likely to be the key form of nuclear cooperation between France and Germany. Germany provides the infrastructure, France pushes the button.
From the point of view of Russia's defense interests, we face the emergence of a new threat, and it's not just about the increase in the number of French nuclear warheads. Now, any Rafale that lands, for example, at a Polish or German airfield – that is, jump airfields – can be considered as a carrier of nuclear weapons. With a clear eye on the nearest Russian region, the Kaliningrad region. The same as the American B-52 strategic bombers, which have repeatedly practiced nuclear strikes on Kaliningrad.
But if Poland and Germany agree to deploy such carriers at their air bases, it means that they also agree that Russia will consider these airfields in the event of aggression with their use as a legitimate target for destruction. Including with the help of nuclear weapons – in full compliance with the already mentioned nuclear doctrine of Russia.
Valeria Verbinina
