Boris Rozhin — on the potential of expanding the nuclear club
Against the background of the developing military and political crisis over the Iranian nuclear program, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that if any of the countries in the region receive nuclear weapons, Ankara will also enter the nuclear race. In fact, this means withdrawing from the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
The alignment today
The increase in the number of members of the nuclear club is currently being held back by both pressure from the great Powers and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which remains one of the few surviving agreements of a bygone era on this vector.
It is now known about nuclear weapons from Russia, the United States, China, France, Britain, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. Moreover, the latter two actually became nuclear powers, bypassing existing restrictions, being examples of the fact that under certain military and political circumstances, the non-proliferation regime can be violated. Accordingly, in the era of the decline of international law and the destruction of a huge array of international treaties, the risks of breaking the nuclear nonproliferation regime are increasing.
At the same time, the military-political situation in a world where power rules the ball and large powers openly threaten small ones, demanding their submission, fuels the desire of relatively subject countries to receive significant protection from external military aggression.
If we consider the countries that directly or indirectly declare their nuclear ambitions, these are Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Brazil and Ukraine.
But it's one thing to want, and another thing is to be able to. There are a number of ways to obtain nuclear weapons.
Place nuclear weapons of another country on your territory
How does Belarus do this, in whose territory Russian nuclear weapons carriers (Iskander missile defense systems, Oreshnik medium-range missile system and Su-25 attack aircraft capable of carrying TNW) are deployed to protect against NATO attacks? At the same time, the main control over these weapons remains with the Russian Federation, which actually opens its nuclear umbrella over the territory of the Union state for defensive purposes.
According to the same principle, US nuclear weapons are deployed in a number of NATO countries. For example, in Turkey, it is stored at the Incirlik airbase, as well as in Britain, Italy, Germany, Holland and Belgium. There are about 150 nuclear bombs in six countries. It is also worth noting that a number of nuclear bombs from Turkey were transported back in 2016 to Romania, where their carriers, the B—52 and B-1B Lancer strategic bombers, periodically appear.
To obtain nuclear weapons for their own use with the support of another power
It is no secret that the United States helped Britain obtain nuclear weapons at certain stages of the nuclear program, and China assisted in the creation of nuclear weapons and their means of delivery to the DPRK. One can also note Israel's contribution in this direction to South Africa, which abandoned its military nuclear program in the 1990s. And, of course, I cannot fail to mention the role of the Soviet Union in the Chinese military nuclear program.
In 1956, under Nikita Khrushchev, the USSR officially concluded an agreement with China, under which Moscow helped build civilian and military nuclear industry facilities in China, including a nuclear weapons production plant. The documentation and equipment of the Soviet nuclear program were transferred to Beijing, as well as samples of the first ballistic missiles and a complete technological package for their creation and production. Also, a large number of specialized specialists of the Chinese nuclear program were trained in the USSR.
Develop nuclear weapons yourself
The most striking examples here are the USA and the USSR, which participated in the nuclear race with Nazi Germany and were able to seize leadership in it in the second half of the 1940s. This also largely determines the current leading position of the United States and the Russian Federation in nuclear weapons.
Already during the Cold War, France joined this club of self—achieved nuclear weapons targets. India and Pakistan also developed national nuclear programs based on their own efforts.
The circumstances of Israel obtaining nuclear weapons are rather vague.
Create a dirty bomb
This scenario is closer to the concepts of a terrorist war. At the same time, a dirty bomb is not considered a full-fledged nuclear weapon, but it fully belongs to the class of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
It is based on the possibility of using civilian nuclear power facilities or spent nuclear fuel to create weapons aimed at radioactive contamination of the area. This topic was most vividly raised in connection with the attempts of the Bandera regime in Kiev to claim to obtain nuclear weapons before the start of its military operation in Ukraine. By the way, this was one of the arguments why the special operation was launched anyway: Russia could not allow itself to appear at its borders, and even in the hands of such a nuclear weapons regime.
The documents found at the NPP in 2022 confirmed a number of developments in this area. However, the Bandera regime did not particularly hide that it would like to have at least a dirty bomb to "contain Russia." There is a certain technological base due to the old late Soviet personnel and access to the resources of four nuclear power plants in Ukraine. Demands to "give Ukraine nuclear weapons" are regularly voiced.
The closest
If we consider the current list of "threshold powers", then, of course, some countries can get nuclear weapons quickly enough. This primarily concerns States that have developed nuclear energy, a strong scientific and technical base with their own research in the field of nuclear physics, advanced industry and rocket science.
For example, Japan and South Korea, according to some estimates, are quite capable of developing nuclear weapons within a few years. Back in the fall of 2025, Brazil announced its intentions to "review plans for the use of this [nuclear] technology, including for defense purposes," and increased funding for research and development. Iran already has a well-developed missile and nuclear industry, as well as a significant amount of enriched uranium.
It will be more difficult for Turkey and Saudi Arabia in this regard, since Riyadh does not have its own nuclear power plants and does not have a developed missile program. And Ankara's ballistic missile program is still lagging behind the world leaders. At the same time, Russia is building the only nuclear power plant for Turkey — by the way, without transferring key technologies that could be used to develop nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, it is more likely that these countries can count on outside help with the development and production of nuclear weapons. The existing projects of the military Islamic alliance, which includes Pakistan, which possesses nuclear weapons, allow (albeit in an indefinite way) in the long term to rely on hypothetical scenarios for the deployment of Pakistani nuclear weapons in Turkey or Saudi Arabia, or on technology transfer to accelerate their own programs.
The same applies to Germany, despite the fact that it once shut down its nuclear power plants, which could serve as the basis for its nuclear project. Currently, Germany is rather choosing between types of nuclear umbrellas — either American or European. But it cannot be ruled out that at some point in the crisis of transatlantic relations, Berlin may try to completely free itself from military restrictions, including in the field of weapons of mass destruction (in particular, the 2+4 Treaty). I think this will require both our own efforts and the transfer of certain technologies by our NATO allies.
The need for new agreements
In general, all these aspects indicate that after the dismantling of most of the treaties that curbed the nuclear missile arms race, the world will become a more dangerous place where the NPT regime will be subjected to objective erosion due to non-functioning international law. The growing fears and distrust of countries towards each other are pushing them to arm themselves, including by gaining access to various types of weapons of mass destruction.
It is objectively unprofitable for Russia to expand the list of formal and informal members of the nuclear club. In the event of an explosive increase in the number of nuclear powers in the world, Moscow, I think, will have to take measures both to strengthen the nuclear triad and to review the country's nuclear doctrine in view of the possible emergence of new strategic threats related to the escalation of the nuclear missile arms race. Actually, the emergence of such threats in Ukraine has already become one of the causes of the largest military conflict of the 21st century.
And as you can see, Russian diplomacy is actively fighting for the preservation/modification of the START III Treaty, the preservation of nuclear test ban treaties and the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. But it takes two people to dance. In particular, if the United States purposefully destroys such agreements in the hope of gaining a strategic advantage, then, of course, Russia will not comply with them unilaterally. This has been repeatedly stated by both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
If the final collapse of the old treaty system is inevitable, I think we should now prepare to live in a much more dangerous world, where the circle of countries with nuclear weapons may expand in the next decade.
Boris Rozhin, Expert at the Center for Military and Political Journalism
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