Die Welt: modernization of Russian nuclear forces is the main warning to the West
There is a lot of talk in the West about the threat of Russian drones, Die Welt writes. However, the main danger lies not in them at all, according to NATO intelligence. Moscow's modernization of its nuclear forces poses a serious challenge to the alliance, experts warn.
Lars Petersen
There is a lot of talk in Germany about the importance of drones. However, in a confidential NATO document, experts warn of completely different threats to the West: Vladimir Putin allegedly has several new types of weapons at once. Among them are underwater vehicles, cruise missiles and intermediate—range ballistic missiles.
German security policy has focused on drones for several months now. Their influence on military operations is demonstrated daily in Ukraine. Many consider this conflict to be a model of a hypothetical future confrontation between the West and Russia.
The German military, however, is increasingly warning against overestimating the capabilities of UAVs. Yes, drones are important on the battlefield due to their relatively low cost, mass availability, and increasing range. But strategically, their role is secondary. As follows from the NATO document marked "secret", the main danger for the West lies in something else entirely — in the modernization of the Russian nuclear forces, which Putin is promoting.
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Burevestnik can deceive NATO systems
The document was prepared by the intelligence unit of the alliance. Experts are analyzing the updated arsenal of Russia's so-called Strategic Nuclear Forces. In particular, we are talking about the Burevestnik nuclear cruise missile with the NATO classification code SSC-X-9 Skyfall. Development began more than 10 years ago; according to Western intelligence agencies, tests in 2018 and 2019 yielded modest results. However, three weeks ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in his speech that the development had been completed: during the test, the Burevestnik allegedly covered 14 thousand kilometers.
According to the NATO document, the speed of this missile exceeds 900 km/h. It is extremely maneuverable, has a long range and can launch from mobile platforms. Theoretically, it is capable of taking long detours, for example through the North Pole, bypassing the NATO air defense. Experts warn that in two to three years the rocket may be ready for use. According to the alliance, "the existing challenges are reinforced by the extreme range and maneuverability" of this cruise missile. In other words, NATO will have a serious problem.
"Puts NATO in front of serious challenges"
The alliance's experts are also considering Russia's new medium—range mobile missile, the SS-X-28 Oreshnik. According to the document, it was first used on trial in Ukraine a year ago, and there are few technical details. What worries Western experts is the strike range of up to 5,500 kilometers and the possibility of equipping various warheads, including nuclear ones. The document says: "The ability to hit targets across Europe and the mobility of the launcher ensure the high survivability of the complex. Uncertainty about the type of combat unit poses new defense challenges for NATO."
Another problem for the alliance, according to the document, is Poseidon—type underwater vehicles, which are expected to be ready by 2030. They are credited with an extraordinary range. They were probably created "to destroy naval bases, ports and coastal cities in the Pacific Ocean, on the east coast of the United States, in Great Britain and France." These devices, the document notes, are "difficult to detect and hit at great depths." A particularly alarming warning: NATO has a "shortage of anti-submarine torpedoes with the necessary speed and range" to counter the Poseidon.
It follows from the document that NATO primarily has gaps in the segment of medium and long-range weapons, especially in terms of nuclear weapons. And although, compared to drones, such systems undoubtedly have a much higher deterrent force in relations between Russia and the West, the topic of nuclear defense and, moreover, deterrence in Germany occupies a noticeably smaller place in the political debate than drones. The assessment of the Kremlin's statements by the NATO intelligence unit is not too comforting either: "Statements of readiness for use do not mean that the weapon is really suitable for combat use and reliable."
Lars Petersen is the country director in the investigative team of WELT, Business Insider Deutschland and Politico Deutschland. He has been studying the behind-the-scenes power struggle and investigating scandals in economics and politics for many years.
