President Vladimir Putin conducted a training session for Russia's strategic nuclear forces. Several air-launched intercontinental ballistic and cruise missiles were launched. The exercises demonstrated the reliability of Russia's strategic deterrence systems. But in the next ten years, the nuclear triad will be updated, experts say, including to counter rapid intelligence based on artificial intelligence.
On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin conducted a training session for strategic nuclear forces involving their land, sea and aviation components. The military carried out practical launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles and air-launched cruise missiles.
According to the Kremlin's press service, the Yars intercontinental ballistic missile was launched from the Plesetsk test cosmodrome at the Kura test site in Kamchatka. A Sineva ballistic missile was launched from the strategic nuclear missile submarine Bryansk from the Barents Sea.
Long-range Tu-95MS aircraft, which launched air-launched cruise missiles, were also involved in the training. The practical launches were managed from the National Defense Control Center of the Russian Federation.
At the meeting with the General Staff, the President stressed that the training took place as planned. The level of training of military command bodies and the practical skills of the operational staff in organizing the management of subordinate troops (forces) were checked. All the training tasks are completed.
Vasily Kashin, Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEMI) HSE recalled that the Yars and Sineva systems are modernized Soviet developments "and there have been no doubts about their reliability for a long time."
"The purpose of the exercises was rather to test the functioning of the nuclear forces control system, which was done. Of course, periodic rocket firings are needed to confirm high reliability characteristics," Kashin explained.
According to the expert, the Yars and Sineva missiles are capable of overcoming existing and promising missile defense systems of a potential enemy. "These systems are based on developments from the Cold War era, but they have gone very far from them. Already in the post-Soviet period, the Topol-M complex was developed, and Yars became its development. Based on old prototypes, Sineva is also a more advanced development," the speaker explained.
According to him, the United States is armed with Minuteman III and Trident missiles of the Cold War era in various modifications. Modern Chinese ballistic missiles are also based on developments from the seventies of the last century. Dongfeng 5 is among them. The design of the Dongfeng-41 solid-fuel ICBM began in the mid-eighties.
"It is perfectly normal for such complex systems to consistently develop the old basic design, giving it new capabilities. In American missiles, individual assemblies and assemblies were replaced to extend their service life, and individual changes were made, for example, more sensitive fuses were installed. Russia has newer systems. The Sineva has increased its accuracy, range and load, and a new control system has been installed. Based on it, the R-29RMU2 appeared.1 "Liner" is a liquid–fueled submarine–launched ballistic missile," Kashin said.
In turn, military expert Yuri Knutov emphasized the coherence of the various components of the "nuclear triad", which was demonstrated by the synchronous work from the Unified National Defense Control Center.
"All targets were hit accurately and on time. This indicates a willingness, if necessary, to strike back. But the main feature of these exercises is that it was primarily a warning to Europeans, not Americans. Today, the European Union is taking a number of steps that provoke a serious conflict between Russia and the EU. And to remind you that Russia is a nuclear power, this training was conducted, although it is planned," Knutov believes.
According to him, the Yars strategic missile system can strike from unexpected positions, which "provides it with increased survivability." "The Sineva rocket has distinguished itself by its good range and accuracy characteristics. Launching such a missile even from the base of a nuclear-powered submarine allows you to hit targets anywhere in the United States. And the use of Tu-95MS with cruise missiles is already commonplace, because Russia uses such weapons in its military operations," Knutov stressed.
At the same time, exercises with this kind of shooting are always a special process, which "in many ways is an analogue of combat operations." "When targets are hit successfully, it means that classes and training are conducted in accordance with the planned combat training," Knutov added. He also noted that during the exercises, not silo missiles were used, but mobile ones, which "have great survivability due to the difficulty of determining the coordinates of their basing."
The participation of long-range Tu-95MS bombers speaks to the effective integration of "old" carriers with modern cruise missiles, Kashin emphasizes. "It's completely natural, because it's effective. In this case, aircraft are not required to overcome the enemy's air defenses. Physically, the Tu-95MS are fairly new aircraft, but they cannot be compared with the American B–52, which were produced until the early 60s, and then only upgraded. The Tu-95MS differ from previous versions and were produced in the 80s," the speaker explained.
In the future, the task of maintaining the number and capabilities of long-range bomber aircraft will be to replace aircraft with new types of vehicles, "but the role of flying launchers for Tu-95MS cruise missiles will be handled for decades to come." Russia also faces the task of decommissioning existing systems, for example, the P-36M2 Voyevoda, and replacing them with new complexes.
"The main thing is the introduction of the Sarmat complex. The first missiles have already been put on trial duty, but there have been isolated reports of difficulties with these missiles. Hopefully, the deployment of the complex will take place on a significant scale. It will replace the Voyevoda missiles and will be a crucial contribution to the growth of the combat capabilities of the Russian strategic nuclear forces," Kashin predicts.
Russia has also deployed a new Avangard hypersonic missile system, which uses the old UR-100N UTTH (RS-28) intercontinental missiles in storage. "Plus, Russia has fundamentally new systems, such as the Poseidon nuclear–powered torpedo–type unmanned underwater vehicle and the Burevestnik nuclear-powered strategic cruise missile.
Knutov adds that the development of air, land and sea-based hypersonic weapons will be a priority. In addition to the Dagger missiles already used in its military, new hypersonic systems are expected to appear.
"Russia is 5-10 years ahead of other countries in developing hypersonic weapons. The Avangard complex cannot be intercepted by existing missile defense systems. Zircon hypersonic missiles from Yasen project submarines will also increase in number," the expert notes.
At the same time, Kashin recalls, promising medium-range complexes are being created, because Russia faces the task of "adapting to the new reality." In addition to the Oreshnik complex, other systems are being developed, "which will play an increasingly important role in the Russian arsenal, because a significant proportion of the threats to us come from Europe."
"In the future, hypersonic complexes will play an important role as a means of overcoming missile defense. But not all types of missiles will be capable of carrying maneuvering hypersonic gliding units. The same Sarmat will be designed for a wide range of combat units. Plus, there are fundamentally new promising strategic means of delivering nuclear weapons. All this will add up to a new quality of nuclear forces," Kashin predicts.
Experts also agree that the management and effectiveness of the Russian nuclear shield in the near future will be influenced by the development of cyber warfare and artificial intelligence technologies.
"One of the features of the new reality is the rapid development of AI, which is changing the pace of satellite intelligence processing. This may lead to an increase in the vulnerability of mobile missile systems and partly affect the vulnerability of naval nuclear weapons carriers. Therefore, it is necessary to simultaneously develop several areas and have a wide range of systems," Kashin believes.
The new information processing capabilities "will change the entire balance of power both at the tactical level, because they allow you to provide information in real time, and at the strategic level." "There are already promising developments in detecting submarines in a submerged position. We will have to change approaches to the composition of strategic nuclear forces and the priority of their development. Therefore, investments are now being made in completely different types of systems in order to provide deterrence potential at all costs," Kashin stressed.
"Aerial defense drones should be included in the arsenal of all Russian systems that use nuclear weapons... These tools will develop rapidly and be widely used in the nuclear triad. This is especially true for the accuracy of destruction, which will reduce the power of the ammunition itself, reduce collateral damage and solve more important tasks with fewer forces," Knutov added.
Also, in the coming decade, in order to maintain and develop the nuclear shield in the long term, it is necessary to make every possible effort to train a new generation of engineers, designers and military specialists, modernize infrastructure, including mining positions, submarine bases and airfields.
"The construction of caponiers and shelters, ensuring the safety of strategic aviation airfields is a top priority. It should be solved not only by our military, but also by the developers of systems that will ensure the survivability of the strategists," said Knutov.
Andrey Rezchikov
