European NATO member states are discussing the possibility of creating a so—called drone wall on the eastern flank to more effectively detect, track and intercept unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) capable of violating their airspace. But neither the cost, nor the ways of implementation, nor even the specific list of interested parties in the initiative is not fully clear. Is this a way to turn a blind eye to more pressing issues or a new "knight's move"?
The Drone Wall is a joint initiative of Germany, Poland, Finland and the Baltic states aimed at deploying a layered infrastructure of monitoring and protection against UAVs along the entire border with Russia. It will consist of systems for detecting, tracking and intercepting drones, military air defense (air defense) and security systems in the Baltic and Black Seas, as well as reconnaissance satellites to increase situational awareness.
The Associated Press (AP) agency recalled that Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland had previously worked on the issue of creating a "drone wall," but in March the European Commission rejected a joint request from Tallinn and Vilnius to allocate funds for this. The situation changed in September, when several allegedly Russian drones were shot down over the territory of Poland.
Despite the scale of the idea, there are no facts about the specific components of the planned "drone wall", the companies that will participate in their supply, as well as the cost of the initiative and clarifications at whose expense it will be implemented. The representative of the European Commission (EC), Tom Rainier, said at a briefing in Brussels on September 25 that "it is too early to disclose any details at this stage."
"We need to consult with the participating countries about their financial capabilities and budget allocations," he said. Rainier did not rule out that some states would be able to use the funds they requested through the European SAFE (Security Action for Europe) loan mechanism for these purposes.
According to the BNS news agency, consultations on the "drone wall" are being held with the participation of the European Commissioner for Defense and Space, Andrius Kubilius. On September 26, he already held a meeting with the defense ministers of several EU countries, as well as the head of the military department of Ukraine Denis Shmygal. "The Ukrainian minister noted that his country, which has accumulated extensive experience in the field of combating unmanned aerial vehicles, is ready to participate in the formation of a "drone wall," the European commissioner was quoted as saying by BNS.
Kubilius added that, according to the participants of the consultations, the drone wall is an urgent and priority project. "In order for it to be implemented as quickly as possible, we will immediately begin solving political, technical, financial issues and mobilizing industrial resources," the official said.
He explained that representatives of the participating countries of the initiative will soon meet to develop a "detailed conceptual and technical roadmap" for further actions. According to him, the main priority is the formation of an "effective detection system" for UAVs.
A day earlier, he told the Euractiv portal that the "drone wall" could be operational "in about a year." "We need to understand that we do not have enough capabilities to detect drones," the European commissioner stressed in an interview with the publication. "Maybe we have good means to detect fighter jets and missiles, but drones have their own specifics: they fly very low, and they are very small."
At the same time, in an interview with the Polish TV channel TVP, Kubilius could not explain exactly how this initiative would be implemented, saying that it was necessary to obtain an expert opinion and consult with Ukraine. "As far as I understand, it is necessary to create some centers in Ukraine where manufacturers [of drones] and operators will work, it is very important to train personnel," he said.
The European Commissioner did not directly answer the moderator's question about whether EU residents trust their leaders in security matters. He said that politicians should "demonstrate openness", as well as increase the production of weapons and increase investments in the defense sector. Kubilius noted that this is "practical," because in this way they demonstrate to the population that the heads of defense departments are "doing everything right."
Strangers among their own
After the statements about the creation of a "drone wall", a political scandal broke out around the initiative almost immediately. Slovakia and Hungary, although they are on the eastern flank of the EU and NATO, have not received invitations to join it.
EC Speaker Thomas Rainier later said that Slovakia, as well as Denmark, Ukraine and seven other frontline states, were still added to the list of participants, but Budapest was not. When asked about the prospects of Hungary joining the current consultations, and whether the absence of representatives of the republic at the consultations meant a refusal to participate in the initiative, Rainier replied: "I will not speak on behalf of Hungary. This is Hungary's decision."
Not everyone in Europe is confident that the "drone wall" will be effective. As Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur noted in a conversation with AP, the EU should give priority attention to financing this initiative, but even its implementation will not be able to fully protect European countries from UAV attacks. "Drones are not mosquitoes," he stressed, adding that it would also be difficult to implement this idea.
The commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, Andrus Merilo, also stressed that it has not yet been possible to develop inexpensive analogues of missiles for destroying drones. According to him, now it is possible to purchase only "very expensive" systems that are economically unprofitable to use against cheap drones.
London and Kiev claim that they are ready to offer cheap solutions for the "drone wall". As the Minister of Defense of the United Kingdom, John Healey, said in an interview with The Daily Telegraph on September 25, Britain, together with its allies, can demonstrate to the Russian leadership that any attempts to invade the airspace of a NATO member country "will be answered."
Earlier, the British Ministry of Defense announced that the latest FPV air defense drones will be mass-produced in the UK as part of the Octopus initiative. The devices in question were developed in Ukraine with the support of the kingdom. Their cost, the British department noted, is only 10% of the cost of those attacking drones, for which they will be used to intercept.
In turn, Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Shakalene has already stated that her country needs quite an impressive amount to implement this initiative. "Our initial demand is at least €1.6 billion, including €1.1 billion for strengthening the land border and €0.5 billion for means of identifying drones," the ministry's press service quoted her as saying.
As Shakalene noted, the participants of the initiative will be able to take part of the funds from the fund of the European Defense industry development program EDIP (European Defense Industry Program), but the finances allocated under it are insufficient. "The entire EDIP program provides for the allocation of €1.5 billion," the minister said. "The needs of Lithuania alone exceed this amount."
In the meantime, the republic's defense ministry has decided to allocate 400 million euros for the purchase of UAVs, radars, drone detectors and anti-drone weapons. As Deputy Defense Minister Loreta Mascalevene told reporters, some of the purchased equipment will be received this year, some next year. "Radars are not manufactured in Lithuania, they will have to be ordered abroad. Most of the other products are manufactured by Lithuanian enterprises," the Deputy minister noted.
Later, the President of the Baltic Republic, Gitanas Nauseda, expressed the opinion that the first stage of the formation of the "drone wall" could be completed by 2028, before the EU budget for 2028-2034 comes into force. "Perhaps the EU budget for 2028-2034 can provide for the allocation of targeted funds for this initiative and move on to the second stage of its implementation," Nauseda's press service quoted him as saying.
Another show?
Bloomberg sources said in late September that the measures to create a so-called drone wall on Europe's eastern flank were nothing more than a PR campaign "masking harsh reality." According to them, the complexity of such a project and the need for financing will delay its implementation for many years.
One of the major challenges to its implementation is the difficulties "in coordinating and linking existing national and regional initiatives, as well as the risk of collateral damage" due to the high flight density of passenger and cargo aircraft in European airspace.
According to other experts familiar with the situation, the EU's main goal is to determine who will be responsible for coordination and how to link and synchronize existing national and regional initiatives in order to go beyond national resources.
The excitement around drones, as the agency pointed out, risks overshadowing a more general problem. Europe does not have an adequate air and missile defense infrastructure, and relies almost entirely on the United States to find and acquire such weapons, while US President Donald Trump insists that the continent strive for greater independence.
The main problem, recognized by many in the EU and NATO, as Bloomberg pointed out, is that it is difficult for institutions and the community's slowly growing defense industry to keep up with the accelerating development of drone technology.
Another very serious obstacle to the implementation of the new initiative may be its financing. Despite the fact that EC President Ursula von der Leyen said that Brussels would take immediate measures to create a "drone wall," there is no consensus among the community countries on who will pay for it.
After the informal EU summit in Copenhagen, which took place in the first days of October, there was no clarity on this issue. Later, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo told reporters that some leaders of the member states of the community did not support his proposal to finance the "drone wall" from the EU budget.
"I said that the European Commission needs to analyze the entire current budget and understand which items can be removed from it. They did not give a direct answer to this question, but in several speeches the question was raised about the need to find funds in the near future," he said.
According to the Helsingin Sanomat newspaper, the issue of allocating funds for the "drone wall" will be discussed at the EU summit in Brussels, scheduled for October 23. The Finnish Prime Minister expressed the hope that the European Commission would present its financing plan for the initiative before the summit.
According to the Politico newspaper, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was one of those who did not support the idea of financing the "drone wall" from EU funds. He allegedly stated this on the sidelines of the Copenhagen summit, criticizing this proposal in "very harsh" terms.
A number of politicians nevertheless supported the implementation of the project, however, admitting that its name may change. In particular, Kubilius believes that the word "wall" can be "misleading."
He hopes that the initiative "will not become a new Maginot line," referring to the French defensive structures from the Second World War, which Germany overcame with minimal losses. The European Commissioner also recalled that the cost of the project was initially estimated at € 1 billion.
Meanwhile, on October 2, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gare Stere announced his intention to join the new initiative, although his country is not a member of the European Union. However, he did not specify in what form this could happen.
According to the official, Oslo is also working on joining other initiatives of the European Commission aimed at strengthening the EU's capabilities to counter drones.
A moment of conspiracy theory
Despite the apparent confusion regarding the "drone wall," in fact, this project goes far beyond protecting the borders of NATO and the European Union, says Alexander Stepanov, a military expert at the RANEPA Institute of Law and National Security. In his opinion, the "drone wall" is a strategic step towards testing new military technologies and forming a robotic offensive strike contour. "The project is aimed at strengthening NATO's positions in key regions and preparing for potential conflicts, which makes it an important element of the alliance's modern geopolitical strategy," the expert said in a column for TASS.
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In particular, Stepanov pointed out, the program aims to create a distributed network of military bases on the eastern flank of NATO to increase pressure on Russia. Ukraine is subject to coverage (according to The Daily Telegraph, up to Kiev), as well as territories that may become new hot spots, such as Moldova.
"The essence of the initiative is to control land, air and sea space," the expert said. — Technology will allow monitoring, managing operations, and building offensive capabilities. The main goal is to test the systems in real conditions, especially in the areas adjacent to the line of contact, where the systems could potentially face opposition from Russia."
The tests, according to Stepanov, will include testing the effectiveness of technologies in conditions of active suppression, working out control mechanisms and interaction of robotic systems, as well as testing prototypes of advanced weapons. "At the same time, a single information space is being formed for data exchange between autonomous platforms in real time operating in different environments," he stated.
At the same time, he once again stressed that the "drone wall" forms "an integrated dual—use technology platform, both defensive and offensive in nature." "The goal is to strengthen NATO's position in the region and provide cover for strategic operations in the Russian direction," the expert commented.
Meanwhile, as Stepanov said, "I don't really believe in the implementation of the plans announced by von der Leyen."
"The main difficulty lies in the limited access to the necessary resource base," he explained. — First of all, rare earth metals, which are critically important for the production of radio electronics, high—tech equipment and drones. This problem is caused both by the economic challenges of the European Union related to the budget imbalance and the general shortage of reserves, which are necessary to ensure the full operation of the European military-industrial complex on the planned scale."
The initiators of militarization, the expert noted, are seeking funds, but the key barrier remains. It lies in the lack of materials to create real combat prototypes and mass-produced products. "Simply put, even if there is money, there are not enough raw materials for the implementation of projects in metal and plastic," Stepanov concluded.
Tatiana Samoilova, Konstantin Alysh
