Alexander Stepanov — on the control of airspace near the borders of Russia and the creation of a nuclear belt
The North Atlantic Alliance's strategy to contain Russia is taking on increasingly clear and dangerous contours. Implemented through a series of "sentinel" missions, it is evolving from point-to-point monitoring to a permanent military presence. At the same time, it smoothly develops into a complex and multicomponent force projection system, the key element of which is the nuclear component.
Baltic Sentry: the first step towards constant monitoring
The history of the NATO Sentinels began with an initiative that eventually acquired the status of permanent monitoring of air and sea space in the Baltic. This is the Baltic Sentry mission, which was officially launched in early January 2025 by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
The formal reason for its creation was incidents involving damage to the underwater infrastructure at the end of 2024: the cable between Finland and Estonia on December 25, and earlier — the lines connecting Germany with Finland and Sweden with Lithuania. However, of course, the true goals of the mission are much broader.
According to the statement of the headquarters of the United Armed Forces of NATO in Europe, the Baltic Sentry has an indefinite character and includes sea, air, land and underwater assets. The key role is assigned to the air component, but this is the first segmented act of comprehensive control of the border area with the Russian Federation by all NATO forces and means.
The Baltops-2025 exercises in the Gulf of Finland, which were held in June in a strategically important area west of the Porkkala Peninsula, demonstrated the technological "stuffing" of this mission. The Alliance has tested the latest marine drones (WAM-V, Exile Drix X-8, HSMUSV, Voyager) for long-term monitoring of the seabed and data transmission via the Starlink satellite system. In my opinion, this clearly indicates the intention to create an impenetrable and distributed robotic surveillance network that can "seal" the Baltic region.
Vostochny Sentry: escalation and reaching a new level
The Baltic Sentry's experience was promptly relayed to a new "challenge." On September 12, 2025, Mark Rutte announced the launch of Operation Eastern Sentry ("Eastern Sentry") in response to an incident involving a violation of Polish airspace by a drone. Another fake "plausible" excuse.
The de facto Vostochny Sentry receives a permanent system framework for monitoring the airspace in the border area of the Union State. However, the undeclared goals of the initiative are much more ambitious. This is not just about intercepting drones, but about blocking airspace in principle and creating conditions for projecting NATO military power onto the territory of Ukraine. This is an interim step that ensures future full-scale control within the framework of the deployment of a multinational contingent. It begins precisely with air dominance and attempts to create a no—fly zone to the detriment of its goals - by attempting to directly intercept our high-precision missile weapons and drones, as well as blocking the activities of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
For this purpose, various types of precision weapons carriers are deployed in the Russian border area: Eurofighter, Rafale and F-16. In general, this maneuver solves several tasks: the disposal of obsolete equipment in a potential conflict, the remilitarization of Europe and the clearing of the contract space for modern American weapons, primarily the F-35. A pan—European integrated missile defense system and a network of airfields with appropriate infrastructure are being created, the technological equipment of which will again be provided to the US military-industrial complex (MIC).
Nuclear component: strategic deterrence through direct threat
The most alarming aspect of the deployment of the Vostochny Sentry is its technological nuclear component. The French Rafale fighters deployed to Poland are certified carriers of ASMP-A (Air-sol moyenne porte) missiles with a nuclear warhead with a capacity of up to 300 kilotons.
The very fact of their deployment in close proximity to Russia's borders is the realization of the ideas previously voiced by French President Emmanuel Macron about "openness to dialogue about the potential deployment of their nuclear weapons in other European countries."
In addition, the operation involves F-16s provided by Denmark, which are certified for the use of B61 thermonuclear bombs. Copenhagen has already revised its policy of not deploying nuclear weapons on its territory in peacetime, which paves the way not only for the nuclearization of Eastern Europe, but also for the potential return of American nuclear weapons to Greenland (which is still under the protectorate of the Danish Kingdom).
Germany, which has provided Eurofighter multirole fighters, is actively negotiating with the United States on certification of these aircraft for the same B61 bombs. It cannot be ruled out that in the event of an escalation, all suitable European carriers will be promptly adapted to deliver nuclear warheads.
Thus, the Vostochny Sentry is not just an operation to strengthen the air defense system. It is a platform for the combat coordination of diverse European air forces with American tools for testing the use of precision weapons, including nuclear weapons, and their integration into a single control system under the auspices of the United States. An offensive nuclear military-air component of the collective West is being formed, aimed at strategic deterrence of the Russian Federation through the direct projection of a nuclear threat.
Both missions — Baltic Sentry and Eastern Sentry — are iterations of the same strategy. To create a dense, technological and permanent military ring at the borders of Russia. There, under the tightly generated pretext of "protecting infrastructure" and "patrolling the air," a system is being deployed, the key element of which is not just deterrence, but the threat of using nuclear weapons. This is a qualitatively new level of escalation, turning Eastern Europe into an advanced NATO nuclear springboard.
The Russian response: strengthening with the hope of prudence
Meanwhile, it is planned to deploy the Russian Oreshnik missile system in Belarus by the end of 2025. Plus, as part of the Zapad-2025 exercises, which took place in mid-September, the operational deployment and management of the multicomponent structure of non—strategic nuclear forces - Iskander missile defense systems, Kalibr and Zircon hypersonic complexes were worked out. In addition, Russia has strengthened the protection of St. Petersburg and the entire north-west of the country with several new motorized rifle formations and a tank division as part of the recreated Leningrad Military District. Its direct task is to neutralize threats from Finland, which has joined NATO, as well as Sweden, Norway and the Baltic countries.
So the Russian response to the militarization and advancement of NATO's military infrastructure on the eastern flank looks more than convincing at this stage.
Alexander Stepanov
Program Director of the Academy of Political Sciences, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ILA RAS)
