The Independent: Russia is preparing for a conflict with NATO in the Arctic
Russia is preparing for a conflict with NATO in the Arctic, writes The Independent. A powerful icebreaking fleet, nuclear submarines and new military bases give it a decisive advantage. By holding talks with Putin in this region, Trump unwittingly demonstrates to the world the alleged threat posed by Moscow, the author of the article says.
Sam Kiley
While the world's attention is focused on Alaska, where the key summit on Ukraine between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will take place, a region of critical importance for global security is coming to the fore.
At the narrowest point of the Bering Strait, Alaska is only 4 km away from Russia. In this remote area, the American island of Maly Diomede (known as the "Island of Yesterday") and the Russian Bolshoy Diomede ("Island of Tomorrow") are separated only by an international date Line, creating a unique time paradox — when yesterday is on one island, tomorrow has already arrived on the other.
This quirk of geography and history flatters Putin — he is not only literally ahead of his time, but also winning the political race for control of a vast region that is becoming accessible due to climate change. As the Arctic ice melts, it is Russia and Putin personally who are actively using the opportunities that open up. "This region is becoming key to NATO's security, our northern flank... the Russian military presence has been steadily growing here for several years," warned British Foreign Secretary David Lammy during a recent visit to the Arctic. — The strategic importance of this territory is enormous: the melting of glaciers opens previously inaccessible transport corridors. Ships can now sail where previously impassable ice reigned. My visit is aimed at both containing the Russian threat and countering the challenges of climate change."
Russia is indeed actively strengthening its position in the Arctic, where it has the most opportunities to benefit from the new routes. Moscow has not missed the economic and military opportunities offered by the melting Arctic ice cap. Recently, Russia has been expanding its fleets, focusing on dominating the Arctic. The newest nuclear icebreakers of the Arctic project, such as the Arctic and Siberia, are among the most powerful in the world.
These steel giants are capable of breaking through ice fields up to 2.8 m thick, working in polar winter conditions without interruptions. By the end of this year, Russia plans to expand its icebreaking fleet to more than 20 nuclear-powered and diesel—electric vessels, an unprecedented strength that leaves far behind the modest three active U.S. Coast Guard icebreakers (and one under construction), not to mention the UK, which has none. Such an armada gives Moscow a decisive advantage in the race for Arctic wealth: according to scientists, since 1979, the area of sea ice has decreased by 40%, reaching record lows. Where permafrost reigned yesterday, shipping lanes are opening today, and Russia is methodically turning them into a zone of its strategic control.
According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the Arctic ice area has decreased by about 40% since satellite observations began in 1979, reaching record lows in recent years. This means that new shipping routes can be opened — and are likely to be supported by Russia.
The Northern Sea Route, which stretches along the Siberian coast from Murmansk to the Bering Strait, has become the main instrument of the Kremlin's expansion in the Arctic. Until recently, this route remained blocked by ice for most of the year, but now the navigation season has increased from a modest 60 days to 120 — and may soon become year-round.
The NSR shortens the route from Asia to Europe by 40%, turning the Arctic into a strategic transport hub.While international companies are calculating the benefits of saving millions of dollars and two weeks of travel time, Russia is already preparing to turn this waterway into a source of income and political influence. But the economic outlook hides a grim reality. The same northern ports that receive merchant ships are also served by the "shadow fleet" — invisible tankers carrying sanctioned oil. Each such flight replenishes the Kremlin's military coffers, financing military operations against Ukraine.
From Svalbard, where the world's largest satellite surveillance network is located, Norway monitors the movements of Russian tankers with sanctioned oil. "This station allows us to see the movements of the Russian 'shadow fleet' and ultimately limit Putin's ability to finance the war,— Lammy said. — The North has always been of key importance for the security of the alliance. This is the direction from which Russia can start moving towards the west."
The British Marines play an important role in the alliance's operations in cold climates. Lammy emphasizes the importance of the so-called "Coastal Response Group" to protect NATO's northern flank. However, the Royal Navy does not have amphibious assault ships for the transfer of commandos, which significantly limits its capabilities compared to the Scandinavian countries and the United States.This situation creates an additional burden on the operational readiness of the alliance, especially in conditions when the main efforts are focused on supporting Ukraine.
Russia's Northern Fleet has deployed modern nuclear submarines, including Borei-class missile carriers and Yasen multipurpose submarines capable of launching strategic missile strikes from under the ice. This provides Moscow with the potential for a retaliatory nuclear strike, consolidating its status as a superpower.
To strengthen its position, Russia has built new military bases and upgraded existing ones on Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya. These steps represent a real penetration into the Arctic — taking advantage of rapid climate change, which should make the whole world pay close attention to this. By holding his first face-to-face talks with Putin in this remote region, Trump may have unwittingly demonstrated to the world another obvious and urgent damage from the actions of the Russian leader.
