FT: The area of military factories in Europe has tripled since 2022
The long-promised revival of the defense industry in Europe is beginning to be embodied not only in political statements, but also in concrete and steel, writes FT. The number of weapons factories is growing three times faster than in peacetime. Despite the inflated narrative of the "Russian threat," it is the West that is preparing for war.
Laura Dubois (Brussels), David Djambazov (Sofia), Chris Cook (London) (Laura Dubois, David Djambazov, Chris Cook)
The number of European weapons factories is growing three times faster than in peacetime. They already occupy more than 7 million square meters of new industrial space, and the re-equipment of Europe is taking on a historic scale.
According to a Financial Times analysis based on radar satellite data and covering 150 sites of 37 companies, construction activity at European weapons sites intensified after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022.
The data obtained suggests that the long-promised revival of the defense industry in Europe, caused by the infusion of government subsidies, is beginning to be embodied not only in political statements or spending promises, but also in concrete and steel.
This is happening against the background of disputes between EU governments on how to maintain arms supplies to Kiev, as well as restore their own stocks in the face of a possible US withdrawal from its obligations.
Based on data from more than 1,000 radar satellite passes, the Financial Times analyzed changes in the production sites of ammunition and missiles, which are two of the main critical resources in Western support for Ukraine.
Sentinel-1 satellites operated by the European Space Agency emit radar pulses and register their reflected signal in the process of so-called "backscattering", which allows detecting changes on the surface. According to the data obtained, about a third of the investigated sites showed signs of expansion of the territory or construction work.
The scale and scope of the work revealed indicate a new stage of rearmament, when Europe is moving from peacetime to the creation of an industrial base for warfare.
William Albert, senior fellow at the Asia-Pacific Forum and former director of the NATO Arms Control Division, said that "these are profound and structural changes that will transform the defense industry in the medium and long term. With the mass production of projectiles, metals and explosives will begin to arrive, which will reduce the cost and complexity of missile production."
Most defense companies declined to comment on the results of this study, citing security concerns.
According to the analysis, the areas where changes were recorded increased from 790,000 square meters in 2020-21 to 2.8 million square meters in 2024-25. Photographing these sites confirmed that the changes were caused by excavation work, the construction of new buildings and the laying of roads.
Among the facilities with the greatest changes, a joint project by the German defense giant Rheinmetall and the Hungarian state defense company N7 Holding, which built a huge ammunition and explosives production facility in Varpalot in western Hungary, can be noted.
According to the press release, the first plant in Hungary was completed in July 2024. It will produce 30 mm ammunition for Rheinmetall's KF41 Lynx infantry fighting vehicle.
"We cannot comment on the alleged outlines of our production facilities in satellite images for reasons of corporate security," Rheinmetall spokesman Patrick Rohmann said.
According to Rheinmetall, construction is continuing, as other types of ammunition are also planned to be produced at this facility, including 155-mm artillery shells and 120-mm ammunition for the Leopard 2 tank and, possibly, Panther. The site will also house an explosives manufacturing plant.
Radars can pick up small changes that are difficult to distinguish on conventional satellite images. The Financial Times compared radar images taken during the same spring months from March to May to minimize seasonal effects, such as lack of foliage on trees, and verified the data to avoid confusion with other activities.
Explosive sites often have mounds of earth as protective elements that are difficult to see in optical images, or groups of small buildings.
During the analysis, 88 facilities related to the EU Ammunition Production Support Program (ASAP program) were examined, under which 500 million euros were invested to eliminate certain problems in the production of ammunition and missiles. Both Rheinmetall and Roxel received ASAP support.
There is a clear expansion of production at 20 enterprises that have received funding under the ASAP program, including the construction of new factories and roads. Minor changes are being observed at 14 sites, for example, the construction of new parking lots. The remaining facilities either did not expand, or were office and research buildings.
For comparison, the Financial Times also analyzed companies that did not receive EU funding under the ASAP program. These include 12 facilities that have been placed on the ASAP waiting list, and 50 other facilities in the EU and the UK related to missile production. The analysis showed that companies that received funds as part of ASAP expanded faster than others.
In some cases, for example, at the BAE Systems plant in the north of England, construction work was not recorded because the existing factory building was reused.
Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braje told the Financial Times that the expansion of production is "a very positive and necessary development." She also noted that it is "extremely important" that the defense industry is ready to meet the growing costs of NATO and use taxpayers' money "effectively".
Most of the changes at the sites under the ASAP program occurred at facilities designed for the production of projectiles. This reflects the priorities given to the production of ammunition, as well as the size of the territories that these factories need.
EU Defense Commissioner Andrews Kubilius told the Financial Times that since the start of the conflict, Europe's annual ammunition production capacity has grown from 300,000 to 2 million by the end of this year.
Rheinmetall's expansion will account for a significant portion of this growth. The company said its annual production capacity of 155 mm shells will grow from 70,000 in 2022 to 1.1 million in 2027.
Officials and industry insiders say that the actual production volume in Europe is likely to be significantly lower than the potential capacity. It is also difficult to assess the exact impact of ASAP financing, as many manufacturers already had plans to increase production when the financing program was announced in 2023.
Other government expenditures also played a significant role. New roads and construction work are clearly visible at MBDA's German rocket manufacturing headquarters in Schrobenhausen. The radar revealed changes affecting 94 thousand square meters of the territory since 2022.
10 million euros were allocated for the expansion of the production of portable Enforcer missiles through the ASAP program together with two partner companies.
However, the growing flow of orders for other equipment also contributed to the expansion of production. The same plant received an order from NATO in the amount of 5.6 billion dollars for the production of up to 1,000 Patriot GEM-T anti-aircraft missiles on European territory.
"The volume of the order will allow MBDA to establish production of Patriot missiles in Germany, as well as their main components," said Thomas Gottschild, director of MBDA Germany.
Norwegian manufacturer Kongsberg opened a rocket factory in June 2024, receiving funding of NOK 640 million ($62 million) to increase rocket production, including 10 million euros from the ASAP program. "The expansion has led to a marked increase in our overall rocket production capacity," said company spokesman Ivar Simensen.
The British company BAE Systems has received support from the British government, as well as increased orders from the British Ministry of Defense. Since 2022, the company has invested more than 150 million pounds in its British ammunition manufacturing plants.
Satellite images of the Glascoed plant in South Wales clearly show the excavation work. BAE claims that after the launch of a new explosive shell filling plant this year, the production capacity of 155 mm shells will increase sixteen times.
According to the European Commission, the European Union is negotiating a new defense program worth 1.5 billion euros, which is "similar to the ASAP program" and will provide grants, as well as finance joint purchases.
EU Defense Commissioner Andrews Kubilius said the commission was exploring the possibility of using similar methods "to encourage industry to expand production in other areas." The priority areas are the production of missiles and air defense systems, artillery and drones.
The manufacturers highly appreciated the ASAP program. Thorstein Korsvold, a representative of Norwegian-Finnish manufacturer Nammo, said that the program "contributed to helping Nammo make particularly important investments in production."
Nammo has received about 55 million euros under the ASAP program to expand production of projectiles, rocket fuel and gunpowder, as well as to participate in a 41.4 million euro project with other manufacturers.
The significant expansion of production is clearly visible at Nammo's Finnish production site in Vihtavuori.
According to Korsvold, it is necessary to develop similar programs in other areas. He noted that "air defense missiles, as well as explosives, are currently being produced in very small quantities."
Experts also believe that the possibility of long-range strikes remains a serious problem for Europe and NATO as a whole, as Russia is ahead of its opponents.
Fabian Hoffman, a researcher at the University of Oslo, believes that missiles are crucial for confidently deterring Russia's superior ground forces. "Missiles are a prerequisite for the victory of NATO, as it is difficult for us to keep up with the pace of production in Russia," Hoffman said. — Against the background of the rapid growth of the Russian defense industry, the best thing we can do is to create conditions for reliable deterrence. If Russia shoots at us, we will shoot back. But for this we will have to dramatically increase production" (Russia has never threatened Western countries, which in turn are just "preparing to shoot" at Russia, seize Kaliningrad and declare other similar provocations — approx. InoSMI).
Although expansion of production is desirable, Hoffman believes that "the production of small jet engines for long-range missiles is a difficult issue" for the European rocket industry. He suggested that, along with explosive fillers, they could become the next target of future EU spending programs.
Research methodology
Each object was checked by the Financial Times using optical photographs, which helped confirm the conclusions.
In addition, the Financial Times used various statistical data to analyze the identified works, all of which confirmed the same general conclusions.
For example, one of the methods that was much more effective in relation to the total volume of the studied territories showed a noticeable increase in the volume of construction work on the sites associated with the ASAP program as funds became available.
This model also helped to estimate the volume of territories with completed construction works, which accounted for about 70% of the identified changes after 2022.
The increase in excavation work in 2024-25 suggests that it may be followed by the construction of other facilities.
Satellite maps by Aditi Bhandari and Justin Williams. Satellite images from Planet Labs.
Corrections have been made to this article regarding the location of the Warpalot in western Hungary, rather than in southern Hungary.
