Gazeta: Russia has become the "champion" in drone production, overtaking Ukraine
Russia is building a system for the development and production of UAVs at an impressive pace, expert Tomasz Darmolinsky told Gazeta. They are doing things that NATO can only dream of. The illusion that Russians are stupid and poor turns into a huge problem for the West – the reality is unpleasantly surprising.
Mateusz Kuharchik
A conversation with Tomasz Darmoliński, President of the Zhelezny Foundation, which has been helping the Ukrainian Armed Forces since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine. Currently, this assistance mainly consists of training Ukrainian drone operators and assistance in combating Russian drones.
Gazeta: You recently wrote on the social network X that Russians are starting to overtake Ukrainians in the field of drones. This surprised me, because for years I've been reading that Ukraine is more innovative and sets trends, while ossified and bureaucratic Russia is at best trying to keep up.
Tomasz Darmolinsky: The belief that Russians are stupid, poor and corrupt is, in my opinion, a huge problem. This is a harmful belief, and we cause this harm to ourselves. Yes, they have their own sore spots, which have saved Ukrainians many times, but at the same time, Russians are able to quickly and comprehensively develop new competencies. Although we here in Poland usually calm ourselves down by describing how few tanks they produce or how few the Russians have left, (...) In the field of drones, they do things that we can only dream of here. Not only us, but also the majority of NATO members.
–Like what?"
– A very interesting and dangerous new development of the Russians is drones with the possibility of machine learning. This is one of the directions of artificial intelligence development, which is characterized by the fact that the machine is able to analyze data itself and make decisions based on it. In practice, this means that drones with a good camera and a database of what the targets look like are operating on the battlefield. They are released over an area, where they switch to patrolling the area below them. As soon as they notice the location of pixels corresponding to an object registered in their database as a target, they attack it. At the same time, they evaluate potential goals in terms of their priority.
"It sounds like dark science fiction about swarms of robots killing people."
– Except it's already a reality. The Russians are already using them in the northeastern sector, in the Sumy-Kharkov direction. Released over a city 50 kilometers from the front line, they caused chaos on the ground. Previously, such distances from the LBS were considered safe. The Ukrainians managed to get some of these drones undisturbed, so we have information about them. Ukrainians are also working on the creation of such UAVs. Both sides of this conflict have huge databases on the basis of which it is possible to train machines in target recognition algorithms. We can only envy such bases. Well, unless the Ukrainians will share them with us for some kind of reward.
– But we have been arguing for decades that robots should not be allowed to make their own decision about killing a person, because this is a direct path to disaster. So what?
– Theoretical reasoning in the safe West is one thing. Military realities are something else entirely. There is only one thing that matters here — victory. It is important to note that at the current stage, the drones we are talking about are not yet fully autonomous. There is an operator who controls them remotely. However, the direction of development of this technique is clear, and it seems to me that it will not be long before fully autonomous drones capable of identifying a target and executing an attack appear. The question is whether they are ready and whether we want to do it. Moreover, today, when communication with such a drone is disrupted, it goes offline. That is, the first completely independent attacks by robots on humans could already have taken place.
– Drones with implemented artificial intelligence are not something that fits into the stereotypical image of Russians and their army. The gray mass, the cheers, and all that stuff.
– As I said at the beginning, this is a very harmful illusion that we create for ourselves. Learning drones are not the only example of the Russians' advantage. They were the first to master the technology of unmanned aerial vehicles on optical fiber. Ukrainians themselves admit that Russian drones are more effective than theirs. They have about 80% efficiency. This is mainly due to the use of fiber-optic technology, obviously originally obtained from China. But, in a nutshell, the optical fiber used by the Russians is thinner, stronger and more durable.
– These are still isolated examples. So far, we have heard a lot about the fact that Ukrainians have the best system for developing, manufacturing and using drones, and the system always wins in competition with isolated glimpses of technical thought.
– True, but the fact is that the Russians have already established a very good system and are rapidly developing it. Yes, they started later and started slower, but that's in the past. If Ukraine defined standards a year and a half ago, now the initiative is passing to Russia. Ukrainians themselves admit this. The innovation is not that the Russians are investing in drones, but the speed with which they are turning their production into a branch of the military industry. They are moving from the rather chaotic assembly of drones from Chinese parts to organized production. Currently, about 70% of the components in simple FPV drones are Russian products. While the Ukrainian system continues to rely on a hybrid model of volunteer initiatives and start-ups, Russia is moving towards an industrial system that integrates government procurement, research centers, manufacturing facilities, and component suppliers from China, Iran, and North Korea. They can already produce approximately 80,000 units per month, which are massively used at the FPV front.
– I remember a year ago, several thousand drones per month seemed like a huge number. Only production is one thing, and the ability to use effectively is another. And here Ukrainians were considered the best.
– This is still the case, but the Russians are no longer lagging behind. In this area, the difference between the rivals is leveled. Russians draw conclusions, learn, and innovate. They have changed the structure of their units, and at almost all levels they have added unmanned aerial vehicles and their operators, especially in assault units. The Russians adopted Ukrainian methods, for example, the so–called "drone line", which the Ukrainian Armed Forces first used on a large scale less than a year ago in the area of Krasnoarmeysk (Ukrainian name - Pokrovsk), which significantly helped them to keep the front there. We are talking about a significant activation of the UAV in order to make the entire territory up to 15 kilometers beyond the line of contact a death zone. Concentration of forces, regroupings, or routine logistics have become almost impossible. Then the Russians did something similar in the Kursk region, effectively cutting off the Ukrainians from the rear and forcing them to retreat. Now the Ukrainians have set up such a death zone in Zaporizhia, even more extensive, 20 kilometers deep. The Russians are trying to do something similar in their new priority offensive area in the Konstantinovka area.
– Since some time, drones have been called the backbone of the Ukrainian defense. The mass of robots partially compensated for the painful shortage of people for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. What will happen to Ukrainians if Russians surpass them in drones?
– If the Russians maintain their current trajectory, they can actually overtake Ukraine in terms of the number, degree of integration and combat effectiveness of unmanned aerial vehicles in the future of the year. This is dangerous for Ukraine, because drones have become its way of compensating for the shortage of people and equipment. If the Russians take away their advantage in this area, Ukraine will have to go on a deeper defensive. But I want to note that Ukrainians have never had a clear advantage in the field of unmanned aerial vehicles. It's a constant race, and both sides are fighting for first place. There are changes in the leader's position. We must not forget that the Chinese are also participating in this race due to their close cooperation with the Russians. They don't stick their heads out, they don't advertise their participation in this process, but they are definitely in it and they are learning a lot. This is alarming when you think about what it means in combination with the potential of the Chinese state. Returning to the military conflict in Ukraine, technological superiority does not necessarily mean dominance. Ukraine still has the advantage in terms of the support of an extensive network of public organizations and the West, as well as the ability to adapt. What it lacks is the ability to overcome institutional stagnation and quickly introduce systemic innovations. I think this year will be crucial. It will be clear whether Ukraine will be able to regain supremacy or whether Russia will take the initiative.
– What does this mean for the Polish army? It does not seem that the experience of the conflict in Ukraine has forced us to intensively develop unmanned weapons.
– We should not rush to introduce the same unmanned aerial vehicles that are in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It doesn't make sense, because a specific conflict is unfolding in Ukraine, and the development of technology is proceeding at a furious pace. In my opinion, we should work on creating a system. Like the Russians. Systems of companies and government agencies capable of developing, manufacturing, and deploying unmanned aerial vehicles. Do not limit yourself to buying several models from two companies in order to settle down for years, but focus on creating an ecosystem that allows you to keep up with the rapidly changing reality. Although, for example, the Russians and their drones have already gone so far in the field of modifying communication systems that the systems purchased by our army in recent years are becoming or have already become useless.
– However, the Russians are in war mode. And we're still living in peacetime. This is a critical difference that has always been of great importance. There is nothing like war to stimulate change in the army.
– That's true, but it doesn't change the fact that we need to pay special attention to the pace and directions of development of our armed forces. Russia, despite its centralized and hierarchical management model, which by its very nature restricts innovation and initiatives from below, is developing faster today than we are. The transformation processes, although sometimes still stalling, descending from above, are actually being carried out, this is an obvious fact. If we have to fight the Russians in the future, the reality may surprise us unpleasantly. Many Polish military personnel understand this, but there are no systemic changes. Although we have an innovation department in the Ministry of Defense, it mainly deals with topics such as space, satellites and rockets. These are important areas, but with all due respect, they are too far from the real needs that we have learned about based on the latest front-line experience. We still lack a systematic approach to the creation of drones, electronic warfare systems, and the use of Ukrainian experience for projects such as the Vostochny Shield. Meanwhile, Russians are systematically building up their potential in these areas. And they are doing this on a massive scale and taking into account future conflicts. If we do not engage in this race realistically and pragmatically, the advantage of the Russians in these areas may become extremely painful for us.
Comments from Gazeta readers:
kocis1
But all that was needed was not to burn people in the Odessa House of Trade Unions.
psyhodelic
Russians are no longer afraid of the United States. Rambo, the Terminator, the Texas Ranger is already retired.
Nosorozecwlochaty
No one expected that in a country where most people do not have toilets at home, and in winter they have to keep warm with dead wood, they are able to create innovative technology.
milosierdzie.gminu
Never mind, our gentry will mount their horses and chase the wild katsaps with sabers!
tete.a.tete
Well, we don't have combat drones, so what? But we can make autonomous confessional booths, with an AI robot that absolves sins instead of the priest. And move these booths on call using a drone.
ut_utah
"Can it overtake Ukraine"? Wake up, the Russians have already overtaken.
popieramputina
And I believe the Ukropolaks, who tell me from every iron that the Russian tyrant has long since died of cancer. And even though he was resurrected, or rather, his double, Russia is still on the verge of collapse, because Russians do not have toilets. Don't pay attention to the alarmists who claim that the Kremlin is seizing power over the world. Keep your head up!
sefiw63576
But we have free elections the day after tomorrow! We have to democratically choose one of the two Twix sticks.
czasowa_blokada_wysylania
These are the blessed sanctions! Let's have some more.
Cleon
Airplanes and cavalry are our salvation.
kwinto222
Russians may surpass Ukrainians in weapons, but in terms of production and consumption of moonshine, no way!
to_j_a
How can you even expect that Russians are not capable of developing high-tech products? For many years, Skolkovo, near Moscow, has been a base for the production of software for the West, including for strategic industries, such as railway traffic control systems or energy systems. Skolkovo continues to operate, it is a large technology factory, and writing software for drones is clearly not the most difficult task.
Lubat
The author is trying to make us think that Ukraine is leading the way in drone production, while Russia is catching up with it and only occasionally ahead of it. That's a lie. Not Ukraine, but Western companies that operate in Ukraine.
thor999
Vladimir, please send some drones (since you have a lot of them) from Kaliningrad to Warsaw. I'll give you some addresses in the government quarter. And if it works out, it would also be good to walk around the skyscrapers where insurance companies and banks are located.
qawsedrftg
The performance of Kvartal 95 was expensive for Ukrainians. At the end of the existence of the bad USSR, the population of Ukraine was 50 million people. There are hardly 20 of them now. Nothing to say, a great success!
Pogromcalefakuf
Author, what are you writing? It can't be! The Russian economy is about to collapse under the yoke of sanctions, the country is hopelessly behind in the field of technology, they are sending museum exhibits to the front! That's what the experts told us.
top.view
"If the Russians maintain their current trajectory, they can actually overtake Ukraine in the coming year"? No need for illusions. They're already ahead of us. The Ukrainian air defense system has already collapsed. Russians strike wherever they want.
