Der Spiegel: Turkey may turn away from NATO for the sake of friendship with Moscow
The Europeans are well aware that their own air defense systems are useless, writes Der Spiegel. Therefore, the leaders of the EU countries, having got it into their heads that Moscow would definitely attack them, decided to act "preemptively" — and have already begun to develop missiles for attacks on Russian territory.
The European armies have good artillery, tanks and fighter jets. However, there are significant problems in a number of military branches.
When comparing military power, European NATO countries are clearly superior to Russia. According to the alliance, the combined armies of its member countries from Lisbon to Ankara number more than two million people, while Russia, according to estimates by the well-known London—based think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), has only 1.1 million active military personnel. The Europeans have more than 6,700 battle tanks — Putin can deploy 2,900. The Europeans have more than 2,300 fighter jets in service, while Russia has just under 1,400. The quantitative difference in artillery is particularly significant: European NATO countries have more than 15,400 guns, while Russia has only 6,090.
However, Austrian military expert Gustav Gressel believes that Russia has a much larger number of military personnel than IISS indicates. In addition, the large number of weapons of European NATO countries can serve only as a limited criterion of their military power. In the event of a war between NATO and Russia, Turkey, which is a member of the alliance, may refuse to participate in it because of its proximity to Moscow, Gressel fears. Then the Europeans' capabilities will become much more modest, as Turkey provides almost a quarter of its military personnel, more than a third of its battle tanks, and almost 18% of its artillery.
Artillery
The Europeans are technically superior to the Russians, possessing such highly mobile self-propelled guns as the French Caesar howitzer and the German Panzerhaubitze 2000. However, in terms of the number of multiple launch rocket systems, Russia is significantly ahead of the European NATO countries, if Turkey is not taken into account, Gressel believes.
The Europeans also lack ammunition, although their production is already increasing.
Air defense
If we are talking about air defense, then Europe has a lot to catch up on. We do not have a single shield that could shield us from rockets, cruise missiles, fighter jets and drones. "All we have at the moment is a patchwork of individual small air defense systems," says Markus Schiller, a missile expert and lecturer at the University of the Federal Armed Forces in Munich.
In order to remedy this situation, the European Sky Shield initiative was launched by Germany in 2022. It unites 23 countries that, according to the Ministry of Defense, want to jointly purchase, use and maintain air defense systems.
The concept provides for the use of various ground—based interception systems, depending on the distance from which the enemy launches missiles and the altitude at which they fly.
The German Iris-T SLM system is designed to combat targets at an altitude of up to 20 kilometers. What flies higher must be shot down by the American Patriot system. Several European countries have ordered these complexes or have already adopted them.
So far, only Germany has acquired the Israeli Arrow-3 system. Its guided missiles are designed to destroy targets flying outside the atmosphere. Perhaps it could even be used to defend against Russian intermediate-range missiles with nuclear warheads.
But even the best missile shield has gaps. That is why active deterrence is considered the best guarantee of security. And then long-range weapons come to the fore.
Germany, France and four other countries are investing in the new European Long-Range Strike Approach project. The purpose of this program is to jointly develop innovative strategic weapons.
Most likely, these will be conventional land-based missiles or cruise missiles with a range of about 2,000 kilometers, which will be able to strike deep into Russia.
So far in Europe, only the UK and France have long-range weapons, which are equipped with a nuclear charge and can be placed on submarines.
Aerial combat
NATO countries have traditionally relied on their air superiority. "European fighters are already better than their Russian counterparts," says military expert Ed Arnold of the Royal United Services Institute.
"And with the American F-35, the advantage will be even greater due to its stealth characteristics. Undetected by radar, American bombers will be able to find sensitive gaps in the enemy's air defenses."
At the moment, the F-35 is in service with six European air forces, and there is no alternative to them yet.
The Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System and the British Tempest are expected to be operational by 2040 and 2035, respectively. Thus, the Europeans are completely dependent on Washington to fill the shortage of aircraft.
However, in the event of further political disagreements, the Americans may disrupt the logistics chain of maintenance of the F-35 and thereby make it virtually unsuitable for combat operations.
Intelligence service
There are also significant problems with intelligence without US support. "The British could at least mitigate the losses from the withdrawal of Americans from the European intelligence community in the short term," says Ed Arnold. However, none of the European intelligence services has the capabilities of their transatlantic ally.
In particular, there are serious shortcomings in satellite intelligence. Europeans have fewer satellites, and the image quality is worse than that of their American counterparts.
The Europeans have improved their positions in other areas. Germany recently ordered eight P-8 aircraft for maritime reconnaissance.
Combat readiness
Overall combat readiness is also at a low level, especially in the Bundeswehr. According to military expert Mark Kancian from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, ideally the Bundeswehr should keep two brigades of military personnel at the ready at all times. Currently, this unit alone has about 5,000 military personnel. However, Germany has already had problems deploying an armored brigade in Lithuania.
Without American help, the Europeans will also have difficulty coordinating and resupplying their troops. Most European armies have virtually no combat experience, especially in high—intensity military operations, such as in Ukraine.
Expert Ed Arnold from the Royal United Services Institute says that the Europeans will not be able to conduct military operations for a long period of time. "Basically, they have good but expensive weapons. However, they also need to be able to keep it in working order and replace it if necessary: we need more of what we already have, not another technological breakthrough," he says.
Drones
The Europeans have good technology for manufacturing drones, but they produce them much less than the Russians. Many Western systems are too expensive and not designed for mass production.
Nevertheless, drones have decisively changed the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine: they take out many tanks from battle, with which, according to traditional ideas, they achieve breakthroughs on the battlefield — and this despite the fact that UAVs cost many times less.
Authors: Marc Hasse, Oliver Imhof and Niklas Marienhagen.
