LB: the planes provided by Europe to the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot compete with the Russian ones
Kiev does not receive new planes from Europe, aviation expert Romanenko admits in an interview with LB. They cannot compete with the Russian ones because of the old radars and the lack of a data transmission system and new missiles. Therefore, the Western "birds" simply do not approach the front line.
In February, Ukraine received the first French Mirage 2000-5F fighter jets. On March 7, these combat vehicles took part in repelling another missile and drone attack on Ukraine.
How much will the new fighters strengthen the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? What other foreign-made aircraft should I count on? We are talking about this with Valery Romanenko, a leading researcher at the Antonov State Aviation Museum, Candidate of Historical Sciences.
"According to unofficial data, about 20 Mirage aircraft are to be transferred to us"
Yuri Strigun: Valery, France has promised to deliver the first Mirage 2000-5F aircraft to us by the end of March. These fighters will replenish the fleet of foreign aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And how many Western aircraft have we received since the beginning of the Russian Civil War?
Valery Romanenko: The aircraft were delivered in several stages: we were the first to receive old Soviet MiG-29 fighters from Slovakia and Poland and Su-25 attack aircraft from Northern Macedonia. At one time, Ukraine sold four Su-25 attack aircraft to this country, and now the Macedonians have returned them to us. We haven't received all the planes from Poland yet, so the figure is floating. We can say that at least two dozen Soviet-made combat aircraft were delivered to us.
Later, we created a Coalition of fighter jets, where we were promised 73 American F-16 fighter jets. Some of them are two-seater, so some went to the Romanian Air Force for the European F-16 Training Center. In fact, we will have slightly more than 60 aircraft. At the moment, three tranches of six vehicles have been received — a total of 18 F-16 fighters, one was lost in a plane crash. That means there are 17 cars left. This has been reported in the media.
In addition, we were informed about the transfer of three French Mirage aircraft. I have already seen footage from the Mirage 2000-5F in the Ukrainian sky. It has a characteristic triangular wing that cannot be confused with any other. Therefore, these planes are already guaranteed to fly. Where, where, and how is none of our business.
According to unofficial data from the French Aviation Legends commercial magazine, about 20 Mirage aircraft are to be transferred to us.
If we talk about the vehicles that have already been transferred, they have been upgraded to carry French SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles and Hammer cruise bombs. To do this, a pylon taken from the Mirage 2000D was installed under the fuselage for one rocket. Bombs (two or four) are suspended under the wing.
The old Soviet Su-24M bomber is capable of carrying two SCALP missiles, while the Mirage is capable of carrying only one. In other words, twice as many Mirages are needed to complete the same task, because rockets are not launched one at a time. If you want to hit the target at 100%, you need at least four missiles. One will cause damage, the other will finish. Two more will be shot down by Russian air defenses, because we need to understand that we are not at war with Uganda, but with a state that has a huge number of anti-aircraft systems.
— The Mirage is not the newest Western fighter. How is it better than the same Su-24 bombers?
It should be understood that these are also far from new aircraft and are practically the same age as ours. These are also upgraded machines that have been produced since the early 80s of the last century. The Su-24 has complex airframe elements — pivoting cantilever assemblies, because they have a variable geometry wing. Most Su-24ms were idle on the ground in the late 1990s and 2000s. Ukraine has slightly upgraded the MiG-29 and Su-27, more or less upgraded the Su-25, but it has not reached the upgrade of the Su-24M. Instead, the Mirage was constantly improving its onboard equipment. You see, no one is interested in the speed and ceiling of an airplane right now. The main thing is radar, weapons and an on—board defense system. The Mirage radar sees at an altitude of 130 kilometers. For low-altitude targets, the range drops to 35-37 kilometers because the beam bounces off the ground, illuminating the screen. The aircraft is capable of tracking eight targets and aiming missiles at four of them. It is armed with medium and short-range missiles. But no one is approaching the near range. This dogfight is a thing of the past. Now the range of the aircraft is over the horizon, somewhere in 40 kilometers or more.
Russian planes armed with R-37M, R-37 and R-33 missiles shot down ours even from a distance of 200-250 kilometers.
The newer French Rafale fighters already have the Meteor missile, which is also capable of flying 200 kilometers. However, no one will adapt this rocket to the Mirage, because there is no point in this: the radar sees only 120-130 kilometers.
— Why did we have a long, almost year-long epic with the F-16 (among the reasons was the pilots' lack of English) and had no problems with French at all, because we received the Mirage in six months?
— It's not about the language. All pilots of NATO military aircraft are fluent in English. All commands in the NATO air defense system are given in English. It's as if Soviet pilots had to know Russian regardless of nationality. Therefore, our pilots in France also received training in English, because this is the NATO standard.
— If we got the Mirage, is there a chance to get the newest French Rafale fighter jet? What advantages can this provide?
I don't think we'll get them anytime soon. The fact is that not so many of these aircraft have been made to find the "extra" ones and transfer them to us. In addition, France and Dassault are not going to dramatically accelerate production yet.: There's a nine-year waiting list. Of course, we can take the path of organizing additional capacities, but what should we do with them when the Ukrainian contract ends? Therefore, I think that now is not the right time to ask about the Rafale. Until we master the simplest Western aircraft, such as the Mirage and F-16, the Rafale, Eurofighter and others can only be dreamed of.
"F-16s are not being used directly at the contact line yet"
— How are our F-16 fighters used? Do they fly out to the contact line, or are they currently performing tasks only for air defense?
— There is a video with an F-16 in the sky over Ukraine, which was posted by a not very smart person. It shows a weapons depot, including short- and medium-range missiles, and a jamming station. One missile is missing from the plane. Obviously, this flight was a training flight, not a combat flight. The pilot was trained to work in extreme conditions, including with bombs and an asymmetrical suspension. I think the F-16s are now being used as air defense fighters, and they are also actively preparing for strikes against ground targets. In other words, these aircraft are not yet in use directly near the contact line. Our Falcons received the most modern European airborne defense system, including one with American software, which was developed specifically for the conditions of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. That is, taking into account the radiation parameters of typical Russian air defense systems and Russian aircraft, programs have been developed that analyze their signals and generate radio interference at the desired frequency in order to disrupt the guidance of enemy missiles and blinding radars.
— In the summer, we received F-16 fighters in the European version of the MLU. Which classic modification (block 20-72) do they correspond to?
— In the American classification, this is block 50-52. If desired, any model of the F-16 aircraft can be upgraded to the latest version of the 70-72 block. This is, of course, not a 5th generation F-35 or F-22 fighter, but a completely modern machine. The issue is the political will of the US government, the money, and the queue that has been lined up to modernize these aircraft. There is a fundamentally new radar with a phased array antenna. At the same time, the antenna remains stationary, and the space is scanned at high speed. The Russians advertise that their radars are capable of seeing 300 kilometers. And our F-16 has 120-130 kilometers. Unfortunately, the Russians now have planes that are more modern than some NATO vehicles.
— And what kind of radar does our MiG-29 have?
— These are not exactly classic Soviet fighters anymore. We have improved them, installed separate versions of the R-27 rocket, which are capable of flying 120 kilometers. Accordingly, the radar stations had to provide guidance for at least 100 kilometers. Somewhere at the same distance as the F-16 and Mirage. The difference is that our MiG-29s have semi-active radar guidance. That is, the rocket should be illuminated in flight, it should not leave the radar beam, and the plane should fly in the same direction. Western planes have a different principle: if you shoot, you forget. That is, the pilot performs the launch, and the computer calculates the range and the point to which this missile is heading. If the enemy aircraft changes course, the onboard radar corrects the flight of the missile along the side beam, sending a new rendezvous point with the enemy. In fact, this does not mean that he fired and forgot, but only that the rocket moves not like a tram that needs a track, but like a car that reacts to light turns of the steering wheel.
— The F-16s were supposed to drive Russian bombers and fighters away from the front line. This did not happen because the Falcons came to us without the Link 16 data transmission system. Can this be considered a disaster?
— It's not a disaster, it's just a limitation of our capabilities. The fact is that these planes carried the latest version of Link 16. What is it? Well, roughly speaking, the military Internet, which throws on the screen a picture of the tactical situation at the front. That is, what the headquarters sees in real time, the pilot sees on the plane: radar data, radio intelligence, army intelligence, satellites, reconnaissance aircraft, other aircraft, ground troops. Everything is transmitted in real time to fighter aircraft. The pilot does not need to be told that enemy planes have taken to the sky, because he sees them himself and makes decisions.
Without Link 16, we lose the ability to transmit information about the current tactical situation directly to the fighter's screen. It will have to be transmitted over a regular radio connection. That is, instead of seeing it once, you will have to listen for a long time. Perhaps the situation will be better with Gripen, because they have their own Swedish system, not Link 16. But they still haven't given them to us.
"It is most likely that we will receive the Czech Gripen this year"
— In May 2024, Sweden promised to transfer two DLRV aircraft to us. In October, the transfer of equipment for a squadron (14 units) of JAS-39 Gripen fighters was announced. As the famous American cryptographer Joseph Rochfort said, if your neighbors order a restaurant, a photographer and buy flowers, then there is a high probability that they will celebrate the wedding. How likely is it that Ukraine will receive the Gripen this year?
— I think it could be like in the situation with the Mirage. Six months have passed from President Macron's information to the appearance of the first planes in our country. Back in 2000, I managed to sit in the cockpit of the Gripen and get acquainted with its on-board equipment: three monitors, a sight with a projection onto the windshield, and a helmet-mounted aiming system. The aircraft is armed with AMRAAM missiles with a maximum range of 160 kilometers, if it is the latest AIM-120S-8 model. The Meteor rocket is planned to be adapted to Western aircraft in 2027-2029.
In addition, we will, again, be given the first Gripen models, which is at the level of our F-16 and Mirage. These planes will not be able to compete with the Russians because of the old radars.
The most likely option for me is when we get the Czech Gripen, which this state leased from Sweden. Hungary will keep its "Gripen". If we get these Swedish fighters, they will have the same functionality as the current F-16: air defense, strikes against ground targets and radars.
As for the long-range radar detection (AWACS) aircraft, they will not greatly enhance our strike capabilities. The fact is that, fearing long-range Russian missiles, they will not fly closer than 300 kilometers to the contact line. And the limit of their detection range is 400 kilometers, if we are talking about bomber aircraft. Fighters are generally 300 kilometers away. If the Russians work at low altitudes, then this plane simply won't see them.
In fact, it will help us during cruise missile and missile attacks. The information here will be invaluable, because we will not have surveillance, but monitoring over most of Ukraine. The entire cruise missile flight can be assembled not from puzzles of individual data from ground-based radars, but in real time from an AWACS aircraft.
— So we won't have the latest Meteor air-to-air missile until the end of the conflict?
"That's not true. This rocket has not yet been fully adapted to European aircraft. Now these missiles are being actively produced, production is underway, but it is necessary to introduce the appropriate elements into the aircraft's avionics. This is not an easy process and progress is slow so far.
— To what extent can the Gripen be called a multirole fighter?
— One hundred percent. The only exception is for the intelligence option. If a reconnaissance flight is planned, the technician takes out one memory card and inserts another. They hung up the reconnaissance container and flew away. Conversely, when a fighter-bomber is needed instead of a reconnaissance card, a reconnaissance card is removed, another one is installed, and appropriate weapons are attached, such as guided bombs and a high-precision laser guidance system.
— Can our industry produce rockets for Western aircraft? To help yourself a little bit in this conflict?
— In general, we have a good R-27 rocket that flies 120 kilometers. It has a navigation system and advanced homing heads that ensure flight in the "shot — forget" mode. Of course, we won't have the same range as the latest AMRAAM missiles, but it's better than the Mirage with MICA missiles. And this is better than the old models of AMRAAM missiles with a range of 80 kilometers, which we were given for F-16 fighters. That is, at this level we can replace American weapons.
The rest requires a lot of money. So that you understand, for the future of the Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile system, each design bureau (both Luch and Yuzhnoye) asks for half a billion to begin with. Rocket research is a very expensive thing.
Author: Yuri Strigun.
