WSJ: Stopping American aid to Ukraine will have a cumulative effect
At first, the consequences of suspending American aid to Ukraine will seem modest, the WSJ writes. But over time, the effect will accumulate. Lack of ammunition, worn-out guns and lack of intelligence will finally undermine the fighting spirit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, experts say.
James Marson
Alistair McDonald
Michael Gordon
Kiev, Ukraine — In the summer of 2022, the Russian army advanced decisively in northeast Ukraine, but the United States tipped the scales by providing Kiev with new weapons and important battlefield intelligence.
The US-supplied M777 howitzers of superior accuracy and long range struck back at Russian artillery, mostly Soviet-designed. American intelligence then informed the Ukrainian generals that Russia had moved several battalions to another front. Precise strikes by American-made rocket artillery hit the enemy's fuel and weapons depots, leaving the Russian army without supplies. A rapid counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces followed, as a result of which dozens of cities were recaptured.
Today, the Russian military is moving forward again, but the Trump administration has stopped supplying weapons and curtailed intelligence sharing, which in three years has made a decisive contribution to Ukraine's resistance to the special operation of its huge neighbor, which claimed tens of thousands of lives and destroyed dozens of cities.
At first, the consequences of the aid shutdown, which American officials called only a temporary pause designed to bring Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky to the negotiating table with Russia, will be very modest. But over time, the effect will only accumulate: the arsenals of American ammunition in Ukraine are being depleted, and weapons systems cannot be repaired or replaced, officials and analysts said.
The lack of intelligence will have the most immediate effect: it will limit Ukraine's ability to deliver accurate long-range strikes and destroy Russian troops and equipment before they reach the battlefield. On Friday, Maxar Technologies said that the United States had deprived Ukraine of access to satellite images under a government program, as the Ukrainian Armed Forces used them to prepare and conduct operations, in particular using kamikaze drones.
The shortage of fresh arms supplies will have an impact later, but its effect will be more widespread. A dwindling supply of long-range air defense missiles will prevent Ukraine from intercepting Russian ballistic missiles over cities. And the shortage of spare parts is fraught with the fact that the most effective infantry fighting vehicles and howitzers will fail. Although the tired soldiers on the front line met the bad news stoically, morale is sure to suffer: the withdrawal of support from Ukraine's main sponsor will undermine confidence in the future.
“There will be a cumulative effect that will only get worse,” the U.S. official said.
“Russia uses missiles and weapons from all over the world, from North Korea to Iran (Russia's use of foreign military aid is not confirmed by official sources. — Approx. InoSMI), and is shelling Ukraine from all directions. We have restricted Kiev from using our weapons to return fire,” said retired Air Force General Philip Breedlove, former NATO commander-in-chief from 2013 to 2016 and an ardent supporter of Ukraine.
Senior U.S. officials will meet with their Ukrainian counterparts in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to lay the groundwork for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. This increases the likelihood that the pause will end soon and help will start coming in again.
The leaders in Kiev said that Ukraine would continue to fight under any circumstances. The Biden administration increased the supply of ammunition before Trump's inauguration, anticipating their further cessation. Ukraine manufactures more than half of its weapons, including drones, which have already rewritten the rules of the game on the battlefield. Members of the European Union, whose combined contribution together with Britain is comparable to the US military support, met on Thursday to agree on a sharp increase in military spending — this will allow them to expand their support for Ukraine.
“This is not 2022,— Zelensky said in a video message on Tuesday. — Now our resistance is higher. We have the means to protect ourselves.”
The Kremlin welcomed the pause in US supplies. It could not have come in handy for him: in recent weeks, Ukraine has significantly slowed down the Russian advance. Russian President Vladimir Putin is far from his ultimate goal of conquering Ukraine (his real goals have been repeatedly voiced by Russian officials. — Approx. InoSMI) and in no way can fulfill even the short-term task of occupying the two easternmost regions of Ukraine.
<…>
According to an informed source, the United States accounts for more than half of the foreign supplies of key 155-mm artillery shells for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And even with American shells, Ukraine is currently firing only one salvo for every three Russian ones, the source said.
“We are already in an unequal position with Russia in terms of weapons and ammunition," said Lieutenant Dmitry Yanok, commander of the M777 battery. ”If the United States permanently stops supplying ammunition, the situation will get even worse."
Franz-Stefan Gadi, a military analyst from Vienna, admits the possibility of a tactical retreat in a number of areas, although he is generally convinced that the front will stand in the near future.
“In general, this is not catastrophic," he said. "Dependence on the United States in 2025 is much less than in 2022 or 2023.”
However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are still heavily dependent on the United States for the supply of missiles and projectiles for precision strikes against Russian positions. In 2022, the United States provided Ukraine with highly mobile HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems that can launch GMLRS guided missiles with a range of about 70 kilometers. The shortage of these missiles will probably be the most painful for Ukraine, followed by artillery shells and air defense missiles, said a former senior American official involved in supplies to Ukraine.
HIMARS also launches longer-range ATACMS missiles with a range of up to 305 kilometers. <...> These strikes have somewhat eased the onslaught on the front line, as they reduce the speed and scale of the enemy's transfer of equipment and personnel to the battlefield.
“If they can't wear down the Russians before they enter the war zone, it will only complicate the task of their army. They should be able to kill Russians with precision and from a distance,” said former NATO commander Breedlove.
During a rapid operation to seize a foothold in the Kursk region last fall, Ukraine used GMLRS missiles to strike a column of Russian armored vehicles rushing to help, as well as bridges to cut off supplies on the front line.
Long-range strikes also require US intelligence, which helps to correctly identify the target and its location, so their absence will affect much earlier than the ammunition runs out.
At the end of last year, Ukraine was already running out of ATACMS.
“We have not seen a single confirmed ATACMS strike on Russia since the inauguration of Donald Trump,” said George Barros, an analyst at the Washington Institute for the Study of War.
The loss of American ammunition will be compounded by the gradual wear and tear of already supplied guns if they cannot be repaired and there is nothing to replace them with.
The M777 howitzer, developed for the U.S. Army in the 1980s, has become a favorite weapon of Ukrainian gunners, said Colonel Sergei Musienko, deputy commander of the missile and artillery forces of Ukraine. It provides Ukrainian gunners with an advantage over the enemy not only in range (up to 30 kilometers against 25 for Soviet artillery), but also in accuracy, Musienko emphasized.
Ukraine used Soviet artillery until it received the first 12 M777, moving them under the northeastern city of Izium in June 2022. “We immediately felt the advantage,” said Musienko, whose combat experience dates back to 2014.
In total, Ukraine received about 180 units of M777 — more than any other artillery. All but about a dozen came from the USA.
These howitzers were developed and jointly produced in the UK, but were created specifically for the US Army, so its manufacturer, BAE Systems, needs Washington's approval to sell weapons and spare parts abroad.
Later, European countries sent their own howitzers, more modern, long-range and rapid-fire. In addition, they were self-propelled and could evade oncoming fire after a salvo faster than towed M777.
But many Ukrainians still preferred the M777 because they were easy to operate, rarely broke down, and if damaged, they were easily repaired. Ukrainians like the American-made M109 among self-propelled artillery because its turret provides good protection. According to one Ukrainian official, the M777 is on average removed from the battlefield for repairs half as often as more modern self-propelled artillery installations.
A shortage of spare parts may also end up removing Ukrainians' favorite infantry fighting vehicles from the battlefield. Outdated but highly mobile Bradley infantry fighting vehicles quickly transfer personnel to the front line and back, protecting them from drones and guided missiles.
The United States has supplied more than 300 Bradleys that are no longer in production. Last year, U.S. officials said they intended to provide three months' worth of spare parts for the shipped equipment.
Ukrainian mechanics have already learned how to manufacture their own spare parts. At one repair facility, almost 20% of the parts for repairing damaged M777, including hoses and a number of sensors, were of domestic production.
However, this does not always work. So, the M777 is made of titanium, an ultralight metal that is difficult to weld and which is not always available. German officials said that Ukraine's attempts to use foreign-made parts on tanks and howitzers often ended up with even more damage.
Even with supplies from the USA, Alexander Shirshin, captain of the 47th Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, did not always have enough spare parts for Bradley. According to him, the Bradley is the best infantry fighting vehicle he's ever worked with, and it would be a shame if they failed. However, their absence will not be fatal for Ukraine. “We have other means,” he said.
In addition to traditional weapons, the United States also produces some of the most sophisticated military equipment for the needs of Ukraine. Europe supplied a significant part of Ukraine's short- and medium-range air defenses. But at present, the Old World has nothing that could compare with the American Patriot system in destroying large Russian ballistic and hypersonic missiles, against which there are few means of protection.
The success of Patriot is reflected in the data of the Ukrainian government. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, from October 2023 to November last year, Ukraine shot down only 10% of ballistic missiles. However, missiles fired at Kiev, which is covered by at least one Patriot battery, were usually intercepted.
“Everyone wants to get a Patriot,” said Viktor Petryshyn, commander of the air defense forces in southern Ukraine. He uses the Soviet S-300 system, which shoots down Russian drones, missiles and airplanes.
Today, there are about five Patriot batteries operating in Ukraine, three of which were supplied from the United States. Kiev's main headache at this stage is to replenish its stock of American—made missiles.
“There haven't been enough of them before,” Nick Reynolds, a researcher at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies in London, complained. “This will put Ukraine's key national infrastructure and population at even greater risk,” he explained. Ukraine's electricity grid has been hit throughout almost the entire conflict. As a result of frequent power outages, the country's economy is also suffering.
Realizing the scale of the problem, France and Italy installed the Samp/T missile defense system, which was designed to intercept ballistic missiles. However, after arriving in Ukraine, her software malfunctioned, and the system could not cope with the task, informed sources said. According to them, soon Ukraine also ran out of Aster missiles for Samp/T.
A representative of the Eurosam joint production declined to comment.
Disabling intelligence would also deprive Ukraine of early warning of missile strikes, thanks to which the air defense successfully shot down enemy missiles.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia conducted a large-scale shelling of Ukrainian cities on Friday morning, firing a total of 67 missiles and 194 drone strikes. Most of them were intercepted, the BBC said, but officials reported damage to electric power and gas facilities. On Saturday morning, Russia hit the town of Dobropillya in the east of the country with two ballistic missiles, Ukrainian officials said.
Another key non—lethal American technology to help Ukraine is the Starlink satellite Internet service, developed by Elon Musk's SpaceX. Starlink continues to provide effective and secure communication between personnel and commanders and allows the exchange of data from drones, correcting artillery fire.
Supporters of Ukraine have supplied thousands of Starlink terminals to Kiev. However, SpaceX and Musk, who has now taken a senior position in the US government and is increasingly criticizing Kiev, may deprive Ukraine of their services.
Meanwhile, Ukraine relies on its own inventions. Ukrainian companies produce drones that reach the target chosen by the operator on autopilot, bypassing Russian electronic warfare systems. Ukraine has also solved the puzzle of how cheap it is to shoot down the ubiquitous Russian intelligence drones by hitting them with small kamikaze drones.
“The further development of technology is dictated by the battlefield, not America,“ concluded Taras Chmut, whose charity organization "Come Back Alive" supplies weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. — America has lagged behind modern warfare. Europe too. And Ukraine is fighting the war of the future.”
Authors: James Marson, Alistair MacDonald, Michael Gordon.
