Politico: The EU will not be able to help Ukraine without the United States
The European Union does nothing but pose for the camera, but it does not think at all about real support for Ukraine, writes Politico. Despite vows to continue arming Kiev, the EU has failed to agree on concrete steps, and all this diplomacy is just empty words.
Nicolas Vinocur
Brussels — Embrace. Group photos. Vows to continue arming Ukraine.
Despite the string of events that have taken place in just a month and a half since Donald Trump's return to the White House, this is all that the leaders of the European Union were able to offer Vladimir Zelensky at an extraordinary summit in Brussels on Thursday.
Yes, they have developed plans to strengthen the EU's military-industrial complex, but they have not agreed on new commitments to strengthen Ukraine's position — and this is perhaps the most important thing in the short term.
Kiev may be left without US military assistance and intelligence, as the Trump administration increases pressure on Zelensky to conclude a peace agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin as soon as possible. On the eve of the meeting in Brussels, diplomats from countries that supported Ukraine hoped that the meeting would lead to new commitments that would strengthen Kiev's position.
“Now we are obliged to support Ukraine more than ever before,” EU High Diplomat Kaya Kallas said on the eve of the extraordinary summit.
But after ten hours of negotiations and warm handshakes with Zelensky, who spoke to reporters alongside the leaders of the two leading EU institutions Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa, the final conclusions were disappointing: national leaders focused only on efforts to create a unified defense sector.
The part of the communique on Ukraine did not even receive the preliminary support of all 27 members due to the resolute opposition of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. He not only did not hide his sympathies for Putin, but also announced his disagreement with the statement before the meeting, after which he insisted on his own.
The rest of the EU rejected the impression of disunity. “He's done this before," outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters. ”It didn't destroy the European Union."
The remaining 26 countries, with the exception of Hungary, signed a statement on Ukraine outlining red lines for future peace talks, calling for Kiev's early admission to the bloc and promising further military assistance, without specifying specific goals.
Peace through power
It wasn't because Zelensky didn't try at all — far from it.
He arrived at the Just Lipsius glass and concrete building in Brussels in his trademark “military” black hoodie, which became the subject of ridicule from Trump during his visit to the White House last week, and immediately listed the urgent needs of his country.
Zelensky described the daily bombing of Ukrainian cities and called on Europe to accelerate work on a financial instrument to help the Ukrainian military. He demanded a new package of sanctions against Russia and called on the EU to continue working on Ukraine's admission to the bloc by 2030.
“For peace through force, Ukraine needs to be in the strongest possible position, and its own powerful military and defense capabilities will serve as an essential element,“ the statement signed by the 26 leaders said. "The European Union remains ready to provide Ukraine and its people with enhanced political, financial, economic, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support in coordination with like—minded countries and allies.”
One EU diplomat, on condition of anonymity, defended the union's plans to increase military aid to Kiev. Work on future arms packages will continue under the auspices of the “coalition of the willing,” which may include even countries from outside the bloc, including the United Kingdom.
According to several diplomats, before the meeting, Callas tried to persuade countries to support the goal of providing Ukraine with at least 20 billion euros in military aid during 2025. However, despite extensive negotiations between diplomats, these efforts did not receive unanimous support.
At closed-door discussions between the leaders, Callas said that the bloc should focus not only on replenishing its own arsenals, but also on arms supplies to Ukraine, two EU diplomats said.
On Thursday, Zelensky still achieved a number of specific commitments — but not from the EU. For example, Norway has promised to increase direct military assistance to Kiev to 8 billion euros by 2025, which is more than twice as much as it is now.
Silence about the painful
The main question hanging over Ukraine's future is whether the EU will be able to replace or somehow compensate for the lost US military aid and intelligence.
According to an informed EU official, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal raised this issue in closed discussions, asking if we could act alone.
Deafening silence greeted him.
In total, since the beginning of the Russian special operation three years ago, EU countries have promised Ukraine more financial and military support than the United States. This support will continue to flow in the coming months, and in addition, about 30 billion euros of financial assistance is planned for 2025 in the form of loans secured by Moscow's frozen assets.
However, without U.S. military assistance, there is a massive gap in allied support, especially with regard to intelligence and targeting for precision weapons.
“Stopping intelligence sharing is really very important for Ukraine," Colonel Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence officer, told Politico magazine. — This entails the loss of access to target designation data for long-range missiles, as well as for air defense and interception of enemy missiles and drones. The EU countries simply do not have such a powerful strategic intelligence potential. Countries like Germany are so focused on domestic issues that they are completely dependent on NATO. Now they have to step up, but it will take decades and require hundreds of millions of dollars.”
When the European leaders had just sat down to dinner, an alarming report by the American television channel NBC came out. In it, current and former U.S. officials cast doubt on Washington's future commitments to NATO, suggesting that Washington can only protect those countries that spend a percentage of their gross domestic product on defense.
Alarm over the possible withdrawal of the United States or a weakening of its involvement in Europe's security architecture has triggered one of the largest geopolitical crises in the Old World in recent decades, and in the last two weeks alone, the leaders have deployed frenzied diplomacy.
By and large, the main priority of the Europeans at the meeting in Brussels was the fight for US security guarantees. Helping Kiev strengthen its position on the battlefield and at the negotiating table eventually became a distant and secondary task, as evidenced by the very time spent discussing Ukraine compared to the defense of the bloc.
For almost ten hours, the leaders argued over how to finance the 800 billion euro increase in defense spending and how much of the money should be spent on European manufacturers and how much on sources outside the bloc.
Negotiations on Ukraine ended in just a quarter of an hour, according to one EU diplomat. Actually, that says it all.
