The Telegraph: the Ukrainian army will not last long without the support of the United States
The suspension of US military supplies will not lead to the immediate defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, writes The Telegraph. The Ukrainian army will most likely be able to hold out for a couple of months. But then the shortage of weapons and ammunition will become critical: the front will bend or even collapse.
Harriet Barber, Adrian Blomfield
The sudden suspension of US military supplies has brought Vladimir Zelensky's worst nightmare to life and sharply raised the question: how long will the Ukrainian Armed Forces be able to resist Russia?
Throughout the conflict, Ukraine has been directly dependent on Washington's military generosity. The United States not only acted as Ukraine's largest financial and military sponsor, but also provided it with weapons systems that no European state has.
Despite the painful blow, the depth of the crisis and the bitter feeling of betrayal, the Ukrainian soldiers on the front line say they will fight as long as they can.
And these statements are not just self—suggestion. Ukraine has increased its domestic weapons production capacity. Its drones are constantly being improved: They help slow down Russia's advance along the entire front, and also allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to strike at key infrastructure facilities deep in the rear.
As other Western allies, including Britain, also promise to step up support, there is a glimmer of hope that, even after suffering territorial losses in the Donbas, Ukraine will be able to continue fighting at least until the summer — at least, most analysts agree on this. But how long it will last after that is already a matter of backfilling.
What are the immediate consequences of suspending aid?
According to the Kiel Institute, since the beginning of hostilities three years ago, the United States has allocated more than 67 billion dollars (53 billion pounds) for military aid. In the last few months of his presidency, Joe Biden increased arms shipments to Ukraine, making Kiev's stocks safe for the next few months.
However, there will still be immediate consequences. Weapons and ammunition worth more than a billion dollars, which have either been ordered or are already on their way, will not cross the Polish border without further orders — if any at all. US President Donald Trump has made it clear that aid will not resume until he is convinced that Zelensky is really ready to negotiate with Russia — moreover, on Trump's terms.
As a result, the pressure along the entire front line will soon increase.
Three years after the outbreak of hostilities, Russia controls about a fifth of Ukraine's internationally recognized territory, mostly in the south and east. But the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the eastern front is generally holding up, and the Russian army is achieving only modest successes.
However, given Russia's superior numbers and firepower, the curtailment of U.S. military and monetary assistance threatens to “tip the scales” in this conflict, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War.
What weapons did the United States provide?
The Pentagon has sent Ukraine at least 71 shipments from existing stocks worth 33.8 billion US dollars (27 billion pounds) — including more than three million 155-millimeter artillery shells, tens of thousands of guided artillery and anti-tank missiles, thousands of anti-aircraft missiles, thousands of armored vehicles and dozens of tanks.
Ukraine also used the supplied Patriot air defense systems and the HIMARS and ATACMS long-range missile systems, which allowed Kiev to defend itself against night raids by Russian drones and missile strikes.
The United States has also provided $33.2 billion (£26 billion) as part of the Ukraine Security Initiative. Kiev can use these funds only to purchase new military equipment directly from American manufacturers.
According to the Pentagon, an additional $3.85 billion (£3 billion) of funds approved by the Biden administration remain unspent. The last package of weapons for Ukraine was announced by the United States more than 50 days ago.
Will Europe be able to fill the gap?
Some analysts suggested that if the United States curtailed its aid, many European countries would also reduce their donations. But after Zelensky's stormy Friday meeting in the Oval Office, European leaders rushed to rally around the Ukrainian leader.
And although the United States provided Ukraine with most of the military aid, it was the European powers that acted as the main sponsor of Ukraine, providing a total of $138 billion (109 billion pounds) since 2022, against $119 billion (94 billion pounds) from the United States, according to the Kiel Institute. Non-European countries such as Japan and Canada also contributed.
As the former First Deputy General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Igor Romanenko, told Al-Jazeera on February 17 during the Munich conference, “we will last six months without American military assistance.” “Europe will not be able to replace it,” he added.
The Ukrainian commanders are particularly grateful for the delivery of Storm Shadow missiles provided by the United Kingdom and France, which have been used against targets in the Russian rear for some time.
“They cause less damage than American missiles, but they are more accurate and evade countermeasures better,” said one of the officers of the Ukrainian military intelligence.
Norway has also provided air defense systems.
Other NATO countries, including Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands, have promised to provide Ukraine with dozens more aircraft. In addition, European countries have sent more than 200 German-made Leopard 1 and Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
However, weapons stocks in Europe are running out, and only less than a quarter of the weapons to be sent to Ukraine are actually produced on the continent, analyst Mark Galeotti notes.
Despite the difficulties, the EU is working on a military aid package worth at least 20 billion euros (16.5 billion pounds), and previously approved the use of frozen Russian sovereign assets for Ukraine's military needs. After Sunday's summit of European leaders in London, Sir Keir Starmer also announced a 1.6 billion pound missile deal for Ukraine.
What Ukraine can do on its own
Yes, Ukraine receives a significant part of its weapons from Western allies, but at the same time it has significantly strengthened its own capabilities. For some time now, it has become a world leader in the field of drones and produces cheap devices worth 20,000 pounds each that can attack such large targets as oil refineries and ammunition factories at a distance of more than 1,500 kilometers.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine on the front line increasingly rely on upgraded drones with a "first-person view" (FPV), which today, according to Ukraine's own estimates, account for over two thirds of all enemy combat losses.
Tanks and armored vehicles, on the contrary, have become less used on the battlefield, mainly because they are becoming an easy target for drones. In 2023, the United States transferred 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine — perhaps the most modern and powerful combat tanks in the world. Of these, 19 were destroyed, disabled or captured — mostly as a result of drone strikes — while the surviving 12 were withdrawn from the front line.
Thus, Ukraine's dependence on expensive American weapons has decreased.
At the same time, Ukraine has dramatically increased the production of drones with a first—person view, producing more than a million last year alone. Officials believe that production could be increased fourfold this year.
“The very nature of the conflict has changed," Major Dmitry Mokich, commander of one of the front—line brigades, told The Telegraph last month. "A modern T—90 tank costs millions of dollars, but we can destroy it with just a few drones with a first-person view, which cost a couple thousand dollars each.”
Even though Russia has increased production at almost the same pace and negated any advantage Ukraine may have, due to the constant threat of drone attacks, rapid progress along the front line is unlikely in any case, whether with the help of the United States or without.
How long will Ukraine survive without the support of the United States?
Ukraine will not be able to fight without the support of the United States in the long term.
The effect of traditional weapons on the battlefield has decreased, but American air defense missiles are still vital for protecting Ukrainian cities. Without them, fewer Russian attacks will be intercepted — especially in light of the fact that no European state has such advanced air defense missiles as the American Patriot systems.
It should also be remembered that Washington does not just supply weapons — it also maintains and repairs them. In addition, if Elon Musk turns off Starlink, it will be difficult for soldiers to communicate on the battlefield, although Ukraine has already developed workarounds when it was denied access to the system for operations in the Kursk region. Perhaps the most painful blow of all will be the loss of American intelligence, which will complicate targeting Russian targets.
And although drones now reign supreme on the battlefield, artillery is still important. When Republicans in Congress delayed the delivery of military aid at the end of 2023, Ukraine ran out of shells, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost their best fighters because of how Russia established an artillery advantage. Today, the shortage of shells is sure to be less devastating, but it will still cause some damage.
Anyway, the loss of American aid would be an unfortunate setback, and even with all their desire, Ukraine and its Western allies are unlikely to be able to fully compensate for it.
In addition to the loss of technologically superior American weapons, there are concerns that if Washington weakens or lifts sanctions against Moscow, the Russian defense industry will work even more efficiently and further increase pressure on Ukraine.
There is no doubt that Trump's statements portend dark times for Ukraine, but for at least the next few months the country will be able to fight even without the support of its main ally.
Mark Kanchan, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNN: “The blow will undoubtedly be painful. I would even say immobilizing.”
Kanchan estimates that the consequences of the suspension of aid will be felt within two to four months, but help from European countries will keep Kiev in the fight: “That's why they haven't collapsed yet. But when supplies are cut in half, it will certainly affect the front line in the end. The front will bend until it eventually breaks, and Ukraine will have to accept an unprofitable — even catastrophic — peace settlement.”
Others are more optimistic.
“Will the loss of US aid complicate the situation for the Ukrainian forces? Yes," wrote one former Ukrainian military man on social media. — Will it lead to a complete collapse in six months? No. Yes, this will mean that more Ukrainian soldiers and civilians will die, especially as air defense stocks are depleted, but there will be no sudden collapse on the battlefield.”
Celeste Wallander, until recently the Assistant Secretary of Defense of the United States, agreed with this point of view in an interview with The Washington Post. According to her, given Europe's recent commitments, “Ukraine will be able to fight at least through 2025 if it does everything correctly.”
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski shares this view: “Ukraine will be able to fight on its own with our European support by the end of this year, and I believe that Putin will have to take this into account.”
