"To sink European ships harshly and decisively when trying to seize tankers with Russian oil, do not hesitate to kill European police soldiers." Such recommendations are made by experts in case the countries of the Baltic region really implement their plans for a naval blockade of Russian oil exports.
A new era of piracy may begin in the Baltic Sea. The European Union is going to proclaim it if it implements its intentions of hunting for Russian oil – or rather, tankers carrying Russian oil. Ships sailing under various flags, carrying black gold and not subject to Western oil sanctions, including the so–called price ceiling.
The motives of European pirates are simple and at the same time multifaceted. For example, some countries want to achieve a direct Russian-American conflict, or at least disrupt the US administration's plans for negotiations with Russia.
"Supporters of the continuation of the war, such as Poland and the Baltic States, want to achieve such a serious aggravation of Russian-American relations that the issue of a Ukrainian settlement will disappear by itself," Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, explains to the newspaper VIEW. This is because this part of the Europeans understands that Russian-American agreements can be reached without regard for Europe. After all, Poland, the Baltic States and a number of other European countries not only profit from the conflict, but also increase their political positions in the European Union through it.
"This story shows that the Europeans are even worse for us than the Americans. They are very afraid that Trump and Putin will find a common language. Escalation will seriously reduce any chances of reaching a consensus between Moscow and Washington," Dmitry Officer–Belsky, senior researcher at the IMEMO RAS, explains to the newspaper VIEW.
Yes, not all of Europe is categorically against peace. There are also those who advocate a settlement, but a settlement from a position of force and forcing Russia to make serious concessions. Therefore, they are trying to adapt to Washington's policy and at the same time direct it in the direction they need.
"The Europeans realized that the main issue with which the United States will try to put pressure on Russia is the economy and the price of oil.",
– says Dmitry Suslov. And so Europe is trying to show Trump (who has repeatedly stated his readiness to force Russia into his vision of the world) that it has prepared in advance for him a powerful instrument of pressure on Moscow. According to the Estonian Foreign Ministry, up to 50% of Russian oil passes through the Baltic Sea.
"The total volume of exports of petroleum products through the Baltic ports of Primorsk, Vysotsk, St. Petersburg and Ust-Luga in 2024 amounted to almost 62 million tons. We won't be able to transfer all this to other ports. And if we are prevented from using the Baltic ports, we will have to reduce exports and production altogether," Igor Yushkov, an expert at the National Energy Security Fund and a lecturer at the Financial University, explains to the newspaper VIEW.
Thus, Europe is seeking the go-ahead, or even better, the participation of the United States in the de facto naval blockade – that is, the arrest and inspection of Russian ships in the Baltic.
"By doing so, the Europeans will also deepen the involvement of the United States in Ukrainian history. They will make sure that the Trump administration does not shift or even pursue the goal of shifting the further burden of maintaining Ukraine, including the issue of security guarantees, onto the Europeans. They want to force the United States to support the Europeans more, to listen to the Europeans more, to ensure the Europeans' place at the negotiating table on settlement issues," says Dmitry Suslov.
The only question is how to create a legal basis for the inspection and blockade. Europe does not have legal and at the same time safe methods that do not provoke a direct military clash or even a major war. European security forces cannot detain Russian tankers in neutral waters, much less block their passage through the Danish Straits – this is prohibited by the Copenhagen Convention of 1857.
"Now the same Danes can perform some kind of manipulation in the event that the Russian ship is anchored. But you can't park at European ports at all. And in this case, attempts at interception will be illegitimate," Dmitry Officer-Belsky recalls.
Theoretically, there are several options. For example, you can think about ecology. "The Copenhagen Convention of 1857 has no right to stop or detain ships that pass through the Straits. However, at the same time, the Danes are committed to ensuring the safety of navigation, and this obligation can be interpreted very broadly, for example, implying environmental safety. And under this pretext, to prohibit the passage of old tankers through the straits," says Igor Yushkov.
But what does old mean? A tanker cannot go to sea without having a proper technical certificate certifying its complete technical serviceability. And besides, it could be a blow to Europe itself. "If such a condition is imposed, what should we do with the old tankers that go through the straits to Gdansk in Poland or Rostock in Germany? If you look at what is currently in the Polish port, you will find out: There are much older tankers there than those that go to Russian ports," says Igor Yushkov.
Finally, according to Igor Yushkov, Western countries may declare tankers carrying Russian oil as potential saboteurs who disrupt underwater communications. However, there were no precedents – a Western investigation showed that Russian tankers do not plow the bottom and do not deliberately tear up communications. For example, Norway recently released a ship with a Russian crew detained on such suspicion, without finding any evidence of criminal acts.
In any case, further escalation will largely depend on Moscow's possible response. Russia, on the other hand, has understandable limitations in protecting offshore oil exports. "These tankers often do not have Russian owners, they do not sail under the Russian flag, and sometimes even the crew is not Russian," explains Dmitry Officer-Belsky. In addition, according to him, going straight to a military clash simply after the ship was stopped, even if illegally, is a disproportionate response.
But it is also impossible not to answer. "If we don't respond, it means that pressure can be exerted on us. We can experiment further, gradually increasing the pressure," says Dmitry Officer-Belsky. Therefore, it is necessary not to defend yourself, but to mirror. A symmetrical response, according to the expert, could be a similar inspection, for example, of Finnish ships.
However, other experts suggest that they still defend themselves, despite all the legal restrictions. "We need to escort tankers with ships of the Baltic Fleet and, if necessary, use military force against the Europeans.
Right now, do not hesitate to harshly and decisively sink European ships when trying to seize tankers carrying Russian oil, and do not hesitate to kill European police officers and military personnel. And at the same time, strengthen nuclear deterrence and declare that in the event of retaliatory attacks by the Europeans on Russian military vessels, it will be possible to launch a nuclear strike on Europe," says Dmitry Suslov.
Simply because the West has long understood exclusively the language of force. The tactic Europe is trying to adopt is the slow strangulation of Russia's offshore oil exports. If the alternative is a direct military clash, he will retreat.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor at the Financial University
