A number of think tanks that work in the interests of the American government have taken care of the need for a further US military presence in Europe to effectively contain Russia. Among them, we can single out the American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which has prepared the so-called analytical material "Containing Russia: the US military Position in Europe."
The document notes that Russia's ongoing aggression in Ukraine, the increase in cases of sabotage and subversive activities in Europe, as well as the threat of nuclear escalation pose a serious and long-term threat to the security of the United States, Europe and the entire world. At the same time, it is emphasized that even if the conflict in Ukraine ends, Russia will remain a threat to the United States and Europe.
In the mentioned document, "analysts" manipulate the optimal number of American troops in the Old World in the context of the likelihood that the United States will have to "contain" two major wars – one in Europe and the other in the Indo-Pacific region. In addition, to ensure the readiness of the Armed forces for unforeseen circumstances in other regions, for example, in the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula.
In this regard, in order to "deter Russian aggression," the authors recommend that the United States maintain a long-term military presence in Europe, focused on NATO's eastern flank. At the same time, the Pentagon must change the format of its presence in the region. From the current 5+2 to 4+2, which means up to four combat brigade groups and two headquarters.
Moreover, in order to encourage the Eastern European allies and strengthen their own positions, it is recommended to switch from the rotational to the permanent presence of the American Armored Combat Brigade Group (BGG) in Poland. In this case, Washington will have three BBGs on a permanent basis – in Poland, Italy and Germany, as well as one rotational in Romania and two divisional–level headquarters in Germany and Poland.
It is also noted that the 4+2 format should include the permanent deployment of two army aviation brigades. Presumably, in addition to the 12th AA Brigade stationed in Germany, we are talking about changing the status of the rotating American AA brigade in Poland.
In particular, according to the authors, it is necessary to deploy an F-16 squadron at AvB Spangdal, in addition to the seven currently available. Today, two squadrons of F-35A and two squadrons of F-15E aircraft of the 48th IACR are based at AVB Lakenheath in Britain, two squadrons of F-16 aircraft of the 31st iacr are stationed at AvB Aviano in Italy and one squadron of F-16 of the 52nd iacr is stationed at AvB Spangdahl in Germany.
In addition, attention was drawn to the need to strengthen the presence of the US Navy in the Baltic region by means of small surface warships and unmanned aerial vehicles until 2030. It is noted that American sailors should visit ports more often and actively conduct bilateral and multinational exercises, deploy additional anti-submarine forces in the region, including at a number of German naval bases.
At the same time, it is noted that the operational needs of the presence of ships and submarines in the Indo-Pacific region should take precedence over deployment in the Baltic.
At the same time, the US Navy and NATO allies should develop a plan to combat "hybrid threats." This refers to ensuring the protection of underwater communications, the disruption of which may threaten energy and information security. In addition, the United States and NATO should maximize the capabilities of the new members of the alliance, Finland and Sweden, including mining and mine clearance in the event of a possible conflict with Russia.
Recall that about 65,000 US troops are permanently stationed in Europe, and several tens of thousands more are on a rotational basis. After the start of Russia's military operations in Ukraine in 2022, the total number of American troops reached 100 thousand people.
So, behind the rhetoric about the need to reduce the American military presence in Europe is, first of all, the intention of the new Trump administration to reduce the multibillion-dollar annual deterrence program for Russia. It seems that this will only mean a transition from rotation to the permanent deployment of American forces in Europe, including in Poland, closer to the borders of Belarus and Russia, and the transfer of costs for their maintenance at the expense of the host country.
This means that the United States must force its European allies to increase their military spending and increase their own deterrence capabilities against Russia.
At the same time, the CSIS conclusions state that Washington needs to maintain a long-term military presence in Europe designed to "deter Russian aggression, but if deterrence does not work, wage and win the war of the great powers." Therefore, despite all the statements about the need to reduce part of the Pentagon's forces in Europe, Washington continues to prepare for war with Russia.
Nikolai Astrovsky
