Sergey Balmasov — about the interaction between the two countries and the influence of the United States and its satellites on this
Amid increasing Western pressure, Russia and Iran have signed a strategic partnership agreement. According to the Iranian ambassador to Moscow, Kazem Jalali, the document covers "all areas of bilateral cooperation." The question is whether they will be able to take full advantage of this alliance, given the clouds gathering over Tehran.
The international context of the "deal"
According to diplomatic sources of the Islamic Republic, the need for the parties to sign the "union" is due to their intention to counter common Western challenges. The influence of the United States in the Caspian region and the political instability in Western Asia play a special role here. In addition, further bilateral rapprochement is required due to the tightening of Western sanctions against Iran and Russia. The agreement will promote cooperation in the face of restrictions and support each other in international forums, preventing hostile actions by third countries.
The strategic partnership between Moscow and Tehran guarantees that they will not conclude separate deals with the West that infringe on the interests of one of the parties. In particular, Russia is clearly signaling that it will not allow the restoration of anti-Iranian sanctions by the UN Security Council due to the development of Tehran's nuclear program. Let me remind you that the United States and European countries accuse Iran of violating the 2015 agreement due to its enrichment of uranium to the level of 60%. This supposedly allows him to start producing nuclear warheads.
In my opinion, the signing of the agreement three days before Donald Trump takes office in the United States looks particularly eloquent. He is obviously strongly anti-Iranian and is even considering the possibility of attacking the Islamic Republic in order to "prevent it from developing nuclear weapons." I think that by signing an agreement with Tehran before the expected US-Russian negotiations on Ukraine, Moscow additionally guarantees that it will not "sacrifice" Iranian interests.
It is also advantageous for Iran to have a territorial integrity clause in the treaty due to the United Arab Emirates' dispute over Tehran's ownership of three islands in the Persian Gulf.
The conclusion of a strategic partnership agreement will not be the most pleasant moment for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan either. Thus, as a result of the recent successes of Ankara in Syria and its close ally Baku in the recent conflicts with Yerevan, Turkey has noticeably strengthened. This has created certain threats to the interests of Iran and Russia in the Caucasus and the Middle East region. The agreement allows us to count on restoring the balance of power and preventing Turkey from expanding from the Black to the Caspian Seas.
Defense cooperation
One of the most important aspects of bilateral relations is mutually beneficial defense cooperation. This is especially important for Iran due to the increased anti-Iranian actions of Israel and the United States. Tel Aviv is being pushed to step up its anti-Iranian actions by the successes it has achieved in the fight against Tehran's allies — the Hamas and Hezbollah groups are severely weakened, and the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad has collapsed. That is why Iran wants to receive modern Russian weapons, including air defense systems and Su-35 fighter jets, to repel new possible attacks. After all, as the Israeli attacks of October 26, 2024, showed, Tehran is not ready to give a full-fledged rebuff. Previously, Iran could not strengthen its air defenses primarily because of sanctions, but now a number of analysts believe that these capabilities have become more accessible due to the conclusion of the agreement.
The document on strategic partnership is, of course, beneficial for Moscow as well. There is some evidence that Tehran in 2024 became the third largest importer of Russian weapons after India and China.
It is important to note that even before the signing of the Comprehensive strategic Partnership agreement, the Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic, Abbas Araghchi, emphasized that the agreement does not provide for the formation of a military alliance.
Meanwhile, the collective West is clearly looking for various aspects that could cast doubt on the transparency of cooperation between Iran and Russia. For example, accusations were made against Tehran for providing Moscow with attack drones used to launch attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. Russia denied this, for example, Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, called these accusations "baseless." In September 2024, Western news agencies claimed that modern Iranian short-range ballistic missiles Fath 360 (the Iranian equivalent of the American Haimars) and Arman missile defense systems were sent to Russia. And in October, American sources accused Russia of providing intelligence to Iran's allies, the Yemeni Houthis, "to attack global shipping."
In turn, the Russian-Iranian side has repeatedly talked about deals. For example, in 2023, Iran's Deputy Defense Minister, General Mahdi Farahi, confirmed the acquisition by the Islamic Republic of Russian Mi-28 attack helicopters, Su-35 fighter jets and Yak-130 combat training aircraft.
I think that in the context of the aggravation of relations between Tehran and Moscow with the West, Iranian-Russian military cooperation can be expected to strengthen, which is facilitated by the conclusion of a strategic partnership between them.
Economics and energy
A special place in the document is given to the economy, and in particular to the energy sector. For example, Tehran expects that gas supplies from Russia will ensure its energy security and turn the Islamic Republic into a gas hub.
Behind these hopes lie very serious problems that the Iranian leadership plans to solve, including at the expense of Moscow. Thus, despite Tehran's having the second largest gas reserves in the world, it lacks its own volumes of extracted natural gas.
In addition, the parties intend to implement an extremely important project — the creation of the North—South transport corridor. Thanks to him, Iran expects to strengthen its importance as one of the main transit countries of goods and services between the EAEU countries and South Asia. In this way, Russia will receive guaranteed access to international markets, which is especially important in the context of Western sanctions.
The prospect of creating a North—South transport corridor, of course, is of concern to the United States and its satellites. In the West, they fear a general reorientation of the movement of goods through such alternative channels.
Prospects for the implementation of the agreement
In general, based on the existing parameters of the Russian-Iranian partnership, the signing of the agreement legitimizes the level of cooperation previously achieved by the countries and simplifies its further implementation. The completeness of the implementation of all plans in the current conditions, of course, is not obvious.
The ill-wishers of the Islamic Republic obviously intend to fight against it, taking into account the Syrian experience. I think that even in the case of a successful resolution of the Iranian nuclear crisis from the point of view of the West, they intend to "overthrow" the ruling regime in Tehran. It's not just about purely military means.
In recent months, the Iranian economy, which is already in a difficult situation (in particular, due to Western sanctions), has been experiencing new difficult times. Thus, inflation has noticeably increased, and over the past five months, the exchange rate of the Iranian national currency has fallen sharply and by almost a third. This, of course, contributes to a (seemingly chronic) decline in purchasing power and a deterioration in the standard of living of millions of ordinary Iranians. To this should be added the growing shortage of electricity and gas, which is increasingly causing interruptions in the supply of energy resources to residential buildings and businesses. The consequences of this are regular shutdowns, which affects the economic performance of the state and, again, the living standards of Iranians.
The result is increased discontent among the population with the authorities, with the prospect of a noticeable increase in protest sentiments. Dissatisfaction with the need to adhere to a conservative dress code in public places also plays a role here. All this together gives the Iranian enemies trump cards for rocking the internal Iranian situation, which, obviously, the opponents of Tehran intend to take seriously in the near future.
The struggle against the Iranian regime is seen in the United States as one of the most important fronts in the unfolding struggle against China. China, under the conditions of anti-Iranian sanctions, receives cheap Iranian oil and other resources. The United States and its allies intend to interrupt this flow, as well as destroy the allegedly formed anti—Western Russia—Iran-China—DPRK axis.
