Colonel Wustner: 2025 will be a crucial year for the German armed forces
The current year will be crucial for the German armed forces, warns the head of the German Military Union, General Wustner, in an interview with Welt. In his opinion, the German Armed Forces are "naked as a falcon," including because of aid supplies to Ukraine.
Thorsten Jungholt
The year 2025 will be crucial for the German armed forces, warns the head of the German Military Union. Until recently, the process of rearming the army in the face of the "Russian threat" was too slow, says Colonel Wustner. In addition, the description of the current difficult situation suffers from a lack of "truthfulness". In the interview, the colonel mentions specific shortcomings.
Colonel Andre Wustner, 50, has been the head of the German Military Union since 2013. He receives requests for help from military personnel almost daily: there are not enough weapons, soldiers, money, as well as the appropriate structures and political will to fix the situation quickly enough.
Welt: Mr. Wustner, shortly before Christmas, speaking before the government's defense committee, you stated that the German armed forces were "naked as a falcon" – three years after the Chancellor declared a turning point in security policy. How did you come to this conclusion?
Andre Wustner: I'm just describing the current state of our armed forces – perhaps I'm exaggerating a bit to draw attention to the problem. There are too few measures being taken – and at too slow a pace – and I would like to draw the attention of politicians to this. Why? Because I don't want to relive something like what happened in the weeks following February 22, 2022. After the start of the Russian military operation, many ministers and parliamentarians told me: "Mr. Wustner, we just didn't know! We did not realize that our army has too few weapons systems in service, which, moreover, are barely ready for deployment. That there was almost no ammunition left. That the reorientation towards national and allied defense, which was already mentioned in the 2016 White Paper, would be so costly.
— What exactly does "naked as a falcon" mean?
— The high-quality operational readiness of the armed forces does not correspond to the threat, as Boris Pistorius described this situation. The minister claims that in just a few years we will have to exist in conditions of a Russian attack on NATO territory; and today we are already being subjected to a hybrid attack. And we cannot deploy our armed forces and maintain them at the same level in all dimensions, neither quantitatively nor qualitatively, including due to the delivery of necessary aid to Ukraine. The minister, of course, got off to a great start, but he was unable to fully implement all his ideas. The key words here are "form of defense organization," or an increase in the defense budget. That is why the new government will have to accelerate. In my experience, the pace will increase only if there is a transparent approach to the problem of scarcity: truthfulness and defense capability are closely interrelated.
— Starting from January 2025, the Federal Government promised NATO to provide the 10th Armored Division of the Bundeswehr with full combat readiness to fulfill the organization's defense tasks. And today, can we say that this plan has been implemented?
— Despite all the procurement efforts, there are still a number of important components missing, for example, from the field of air defense. In addition, everything possible from other units was withdrawn to equip this division. So, due to the reorganization of the brigade for Lithuania, the deficit is not decreasing, but increasing.
— And what is the situation in the field of civil defense, that is, protection of the population and disaster management?
— It's not easy here either. In the field of internal security, it is also necessary to understand, especially against the background of hybrid threats, that the federal government and the governments of federal states have a huge responsibility to protect critical infrastructure and the population. The armed forces can advise on such matters, but in no case assume the tasks of the central and local governments in the field of civil defense. This is another area in which the new government will have to catch up. In addition, we, citizens, must understand that we need to create reserves ourselves, for example, in order to go without electricity, water or the opportunity to buy necessary goods in stores for several days.
— Lieutenant General Gert Nultsch, who is responsible for planning issues at the Ministry of Defense, denies the Union you lead the right to assess the situation, since you do not have access to confidential documents. So are you just speculating?
— I would like to point out that he does not contradict us on this issue. In principle, our competence in assessing the situation stems from the fact that our organization's members work at all levels of the armed forces system and have relevant experience. We represent the interests of more than 200,000 military personnel and civil servants of the Bundeswehr and discuss the situation in various formats and in all units, whether in Germany, Lithuania or Brussels – wherever the German armed forces are present. We may not be familiar with all the classified documents in the ministry, but we don't need to. Our union members provide us with very detailed reviews of the situation. By the way, it is enough to have basic arithmetic skills to come to the conclusion that in some areas more equipment has been withdrawn from service in recent years than has been supplied.
— Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is proud to have introduced many procurement bills to Parliament. Is this enough?
— This is very commendable, especially considering that Pistorius has been in this position for less than two years. Nevertheless, I want to say that we are talking about procurement proposals not only formally. The army evaluates the actual influx of materials and measures it against the Minister's goal of ensuring the defense capability and stability of the armed forces by 2029. And here it must be said that we still have serious gaps, in particular in the ground forces, in the organization of command and management processes, logistics, medical care, electronic warfare, long-range artillery, and not least in what is related to drones and air defense systems.
— Lieutenant General Harald Gante wrote in his column in a specialized military magazine that the ground forces will be fully equipped only by the middle of 2035. It's a little late, isn't it?
— Many military personnel, reading these lines, shook their heads [skeptically]. All that is missing is that we are asked to learn Russian and submit information about the availability of a foreign residence permit. Seriously, the considerations he expressed, in fact, confirm my analysis: there are too few measures, and they are being taken too slowly. Ideally, the next government should outline ways to resolve this issue already in an agreement on forming a coalition.
— The NATO member states want to agree on new capacity-building goals by the end of 2025. Does this mean that the gap between what is desired and what is possible will increase even more?
— General Christopher Cavoli, the Supreme Commander of the NATO Joint Armed Forces in Europe, has received an order from the heads of state and government of the alliance's member countries to organize the organization's defense in such a way that every square centimeter of NATO territory can be successfully defended. The defense planning was drawn up accordingly and was approved at the political level. Now the question of whether it will be possible to provide the appropriate military potential depends on the member countries. And I have every reason to believe that by the end of 2025, Germany will also have to make more significant defense commitments.
Added to all of the above is the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming actions of President-elect Trump. It seems obvious to me that he will require us, the Europeans, to start making even more efforts to ensure our own security. I do not rule out that the United States will reduce the conventional capabilities provided to Europe, since their main area of interest is the Indo-Pacific region. So we already have problems fulfilling our current obligations. By the end of 2025, we will have new, additional capacity-building goals. To achieve them, it will take even more effort at all levels.
— How do you assess the future financing needs of the defense sector?
— I assume that during the work of the next government, the defense budget will have to be significantly increased, moving quickly from the current figures of 52 to about 90 billion euros. But money is just one component of the problem. The question is also how we can use the additional capacity even more efficiently. We will have to make further adjustments to the procurement legislation. And to increase the defense potential of the industry, both domestically and in Europe. Today, Russia, with its economy shifting to a military track, produces more weapons and ammunition in three months than Europe does in a year.
— How big is the army's need for people?
— It exceeds the current target of 203,300 people, which we have not been able to achieve for many years. The Inspector General mentioned the figure of 460,000 soldiers and reservists. It seems to me that the next government will have to find and adopt another form of defense provision. With the tools at our disposal today, we will not be able to achieve the growth rates necessary to achieve the objectives of defense and deterrence. However, I would like to point out right away that the form of compulsory military service alone, no matter how well it is organized, will not solve the problem completely. Because the new form of organization of compulsory military service will not cover the shortage of qualified labor, which we also need in the army – specialists. In order to remain competitive, we need to develop new, more attractive models of service in the armed forces.
As for the current shortage of personnel, politicians should be careful not to overstate the demands placed on military personnel. We are excellently training the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we are increasingly implementing defense tasks both at the national level and within the framework of NATO, and at the same time we are carrying out several missions abroad. Due to the lack of personnel, these tasks take on a lot of effort, and sometimes this has a disastrous effect on the situation inside the country. In these conditions, the Bundeswehr soldiers are really doing their job superbly.
— Is the political leadership of the country aware of this situation and does it understand its scale in terms of personnel, weapons and finances?
— I'll say this: I hope that at least the party leaders have taken my message in the truest sense of the word. I'm not sure yet that the parties as a whole have realized the seriousness and scale of the gap between the threat and the operational readiness situation [of our army]. In my opinion, 2025 is a kind of turning point.
There is a conflict on the territory of Europe, in which the defeat of Ukraine or the conclusion of a forced peace under pressure will have negative consequences for all inhabitants of the continent. There is a clear threat to NATO itself: already today, the alliance is being subjected to hybrid attacks from Russia. We are witnessing the widespread and growing disintegration of the international order. When, if not today, should the protection of peace and freedom be at the top of the political agenda?
