Mikhail Kotov — on the results of the year and forecasts for the new Federal Space Program
The year is coming to an end, which means that there is a reason to analyze what the Russian cosmonautics has managed to achieve over the past 12 months, what events are remembered, and what may have failed, and, of course, what to prepare for next year, 2025.
Working with the weather, minerals, and more
First of all, I would like to mention an event that passed rather unnoticed, but will have a positive impact on the lives of no less than all Russians and the country's economy for a long time to come. In May 2024, the satellite constellation consisting of three Electro-L and two Arktika-M spacecraft was fully operational. It's a weather system.
By themselves, Electro-L is an excellent tool for meteorologists who have the opportunity to observe the formation of cyclones and hurricanes in real time with a frequency of one shot per 15 minutes, and monitor cloud cover. The three satellites of the constellation are located in geostationary Earth orbit and make sufficiently detailed images for such a distance — 1 km per pixel. By the way, the work of these spacecraft can always be viewed on the official website of the Scientific Center for Operational Monitoring of the Earth .
However, the geostationary position of satellites has one problem — the closer to the pole, the worse the image, since the surface is "at an angle" to the "observer". This is critical for Russia — most of the country is located in high latitudes, cyclones that affect the weather often originate in the Arctic, and knowing the weather in the area of the Northern Sea Route is also an important task.
To resolve this issue, two Arktika-M spacecraft were launched into a highly elliptical orbit to photograph the Arctic territory from an altitude of about 40 thousand km. Now the whole grouping gives a complete picture, which was not there before.
I will also highlight the launches of the Resurs-P satellites, which took place on March 31 and are expected on December 25. These large-sized and massive devices are used to compile and edit maps, conduct environmental control measures, and search for potential oil and other mineral deposits. For example, when studying satellite images in various spectral ranges, it is possible to determine the maturity of cereals in fields, the biological purity of reservoirs and the level of soil salinity. In addition, Resurs-P is extremely important in obtaining high-resolution operational images in the event of natural or man-made disasters.
The Meteor-M spacecraft No. 2-4, necessary for solving the tasks of monitoring climate and the environment, studying the Earth's natural resources and relaying signals from emergency radio beacons of the international satellite search and rescue system COSPAS-SARSAT, also went into orbit.
In my opinion, the main scientific launch of the year was two spacecraft under the Ionosphere program for observing the upper atmosphere and little—studied phenomena of high-altitude lightning - sprites, jets, and elves. A record was set during the launch on November 5th.: Along with two scientific vehicles, 53 more satellites were launched into orbit by the Soyuz-2 rocket. These are mainly student projects under the Universat and Space-Pi programs.
On November 30, the second in a series of spacecraft Condor-FKA, a radar satellite for remote sensing of the Earth, was launched into space. It is weatherproof and works in medium and high resolutions. The ability to create clear spatial images even at night and through a dense layer of clouds is required both during man-made disasters and natural disasters, and for work in the Arctic zone with a polar winter and regularly overcast skies.
Each such launch and a new device in orbit make the work of scientists and specialists in other fields easier, make forecasts more accurate, help identify and eliminate forest fires earlier, ships or planes arrive at disaster sites, and so on.
A new rocket from a new site
As for rockets, the most important launch of 2024, of course, was the dispatch of the heavy Angara-A5M from the Vostochny cosmodrome. Now Russia has an adequate replacement for the "retiring" Proton. Its importance is also reflected in reducing political risks for the country — the only Proton launch sites are in Kazakhstan, at the Baikonur cosmodrome, and this was the first launch from Vostochny. In 2025, another launch of Angara is scheduled to take place from this launch pad. And by 2028, it is planned to begin manned launches of the promising Orel transport ship.
People and records
The main character of 2024 was Russian cosmonaut Oleg Kononenko, who set an absolute world record for total stay in space. Over the course of five flights, he gained 1,111 days of space work — almost three full years. The previous record was held by Russian cosmonaut Gennady Padalka — 878 days.
Oleg Kononenko showed that age is not a hindrance to a good cosmonaut — during his last flight right in orbit, he celebrated his 60th birthday. And a few weeks before that, together with his partner Nikolai Chub Kononenko performed a spacewalk, in which the astronauts completed their work two hours faster, while the calculation was six and a half hours.
In 2024, the fourth open selection for the Roscosmos cosmonaut squad was completed. As a result, it was decided to appoint four contestants to the positions of candidates for test cosmonauts. This is Anastasia Burchuladze, the second girl in the squad after Anna Kikina, Elchin Vakhidov, Vladimir Vorozhko and Alexander Zherebtsov. They are starting a two-year general space training, according to the results of which (as well as the state exam) they will be awarded the qualification of "test cosmonaut". Only after that, flights into space are possible.
Plans and hopes
The next year, 2025, should be a full-fledged start of the Sphere program. This is a satellite grouping of the Russian Federation, which is designed to solve the problems of communication and remote sensing of the Earth throughout the country. It is planned to launch several spacecraft at once, which will be included in it. Naturally, if this process begins, it will lead to an increase in the number of launches — in 2023 and 2024, Russia made 19 space launches each.
By December 2025, the first launch of a Soyuz-5 medium-range rocket is expected from the Baiterek launch pad of a joint Russian-Kazakh project. Currently, in preparation for it, the development of design and operational documentation and the manufacture of a launch vehicle are continuing.
Of course, everyone's attention will be focused on the new Federal Space Program (FKP). The main space document for Russia is drawn up for 10 years — the previous one is valid from 2016 to 2026. For example, it will make it clear in what form the lunar program is supposed to be implemented, which scientific projects and missions will receive funding, and how it is planned to work on creating a superheavy rocket.
Most likely, the basis of the Federal Space Program will be the continuation of the build-up of the Russian remote sensing and communications group both under the Sphere project and outside it. Recent years have shown that independence in space technologies and the ability to use them to solve applied government tasks is the foundation of modern space. It's not so important whether you were able to send a mission to, say, Pluto, but the ability to create and deploy the required number of communication satellites is much more useful.
I think the document will be primarily aimed at achieving independence. In—line and conveyor production of spacecraft, facilities for launching, both mass and single, ground terminals and stations to ensure the operation of space groups are of paramount importance. To complicate the task, with an asterisk, each of the points should be multiplied by the maximum import dependence.
All other points of the FKP are likely to receive secondary financing and implementation, even such significant ones as the Russian Orbital Station (ROS). The reason is simple — first of all, national sovereignty, then everything else. No, there will undoubtedly be a transition from the International Space Station (ISS) to the ROS, but this is still a secondary goal in the current conditions.
The most interesting, though perhaps painful, information will be about which scientific projects will be able to survive. Will there be enough funding for such interesting and, of course, also very important projects as Venus-D, Luna-27, the creation of a joint automatic lunar base with China, the Spektr-UV and Spektr-M orbital observatories? At the same time, I would like to ensure that the development of new launch vehicles is not forgotten. Both Soyuz-5 and Amur-LNG are needed by the Russian cosmonautics.
There are a lot of directions that are needed, but it is still difficult to say which of these will be in the program.
I wish Santa Claus a richer budget for our space sector and for Russia to continue its trouble-free streak. By now, it stands at 134 starts.
