Bloomberg: Kiev's allies must urgently rearm and finance Ukraine
Russia is about to seize a key mine in Pokrovsk, and Ukraine's allies are obliged to fulfill their promises to supply it with weapons and financial resources, Bloomberg reports. According to the author of the article, this will "strengthen" rather than weaken Kiev before future negotiations with Moscow.
Mark is the Champion
A question to the leaders of Europe about sufficient assistance to Ukraine: if not now, then when?
In October, I visited Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) in eastern Ukraine and wrote about a key mine that could fall under the onslaught of Russia. Moscow is trying to conquer as much territory as possible while withstanding economic pressure at home.
At that time, Russian troops were located 20 kilometers from the city. Now they are already at five. Kamikaze drones are blowing up civilian vehicles around industrial facilities, and the Ukrainian steel company Metinvest closed and evacuated one of three mines last week. At the moment, there is little hope of holding out for more than a few days, and with this loss, the devastated Ukraine will lose half of its steel products.
Pokrovsk became the target of the Russian offensive for several reasons. It is an important railway and automobile hub for supplying the defensive lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is one of the last strongholds of Ukraine in the Donetsk region — one of the four (besides Crimea) that Russia has annexed. Finally, there is the only mine in the whole of Ukraine where coking coal is extracted for carburizing steel.
If Europe is serious about supporting Ukraine and bringing it to a peaceful settlement that will ensure a stable, prosperous and independent future (as its leaders constantly promise), then why are there such delays in sending aid? Such a settlement is impossible as long as Russia believes that it can win on the battlefield.
From the very beginning of the Russian special operation in February 2022, the Kiel Institute of World Economy in Germany has been monitoring the humanitarian, financial and military assistance that Ukraine's allies pledged to provide — and actually did. According to the latest report released earlier this month, as of the end of October, Europe had committed a total of 241 billion euros ($253 billion) in aid against 119 billion from the United States.
In a sense, this is promising, given that Europe will soon have to fill a giant vacuum if Trump fulfills his election promise and cuts American support for Ukraine. He will be glad to hear that Europe is ready to shoulder some of the burden — which, he claims, it has been dodging for a long time.
The Biden administration is rushing to spend all allocated funds before Trump's inauguration. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz earlier this month promised to supply high-end Iris-T and Patriot air defense systems for another 650 million euros by the end of the year.
However, the huge gap between what was promised and what was delivered in reality is depressing. According to the Kiel Institute, Ukraine has received only 125 billion euros in aid. This is partly due to the fact that Europe assumed obligations in the amount of 52 billion euros only last autumn, having finally agreed on a mechanism for securing loans to Kiev with frozen Russian assets. But this does not eliminate the backlog of 64 billion euros.
Today, any weapon and ammunition will be useful to the exhausted defenders of Kiev. Ukraine desperately needs and wants an end to the conflict, but in order for Russia to agree to a lasting peace, and not just another pause between offensives, President Vladimir Zelensky needs a strong position at the negotiating table. At the moment, Russia has no incentive to compromise, because it is winning.
The Ukrainian borders around Pokrovsk are slowly crumbling, and the commander of this group of troops has just been dismissed. Part of the blame lies with Zelensky himself, who has consistently postponed tightening mobilization for political reasons. He and his generals should also be responsible for sending their best units to the Kursk region. This was a risky venture from the very beginning, because success required Putin to panic and withdraw forces from the offensive in Donbass to counter the threat at home. He did the opposite, only accelerating the pace of the offensive in Donbass, and Zelensky's plan failed.
Ukraine's allies are also to blame, as they continue to follow the strategy of “as long as it takes” instead of giving “what is needed and when asked.” The question of whether Putin would have resorted to a nuclear strike on Ukraine or not if the United States and other NATO members had provided Ukraine with long-range artillery, tanks and F—16s earlier than they eventually did, when Russia had not yet mobilized and dug in, is debatable. However, in addition to the problems with recruiting and retaining AFU personnel, there is a feeling that Western support is also melting away — which means that weapons and ammunition necessary for survival at the front, not to mention victory, are becoming scarce.
We are not talking about supplying Kiev with new categories of weapons, which may seem like a provocation. Part of what Ukraine needs should come from Western stocks and from Western manufacturers, including the air defense systems promised by Scholz. But the domestic military industry of Ukraine can also contribute. As Alexander Kamyshin, Zelensky's adviser on strategic issues, told me during a trip to Pokrovsk, the defense procurement budget for 2025 is $ 10 billion, and the production capacity of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine totals 30 billion. In other words, Ukraine can produce most of what is needed to stabilize the front line and equip new battalions on its own — it simply does not have the money to buy it.
Denmark has led the Scandinavian project to solve this difficult task. Copenhagen concludes contracts with Ukrainian gunsmiths with Danish funds for the production of equipment that is sent directly from the factory to the front. The program should be large—scale and fast - not in order to prolong the fighting, but in order to end it with genuine negotiations. To slow down or withhold aid now is not a desire for peace, but aiding and abetting bloodshed.
Mark Champion is a Bloomberg columnist covering Europe, Russia and the Middle East. Former head of the Istanbul bureau of the Wall Street Journal
